Priest & LJ

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:32 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
I was stunned that you took Holmes at #5.
this is the 1st year i relied on a fantasy service (footballguys) for my info. they continue to have priest as the #4RB on their lists. if he doesn't perform to that level or close to it, you can expect me to make a post or two on their MB. they are supposed to be the experts and have more resources than me [/QUOTE]What about all the posts about not going with ADP?

You still had some good value picks like Curry and TB Def. and others.

also, too much emphasis is placed on the draft.

If we all start out with nothing, a 5 on a scale of 10, even the best drafted team barely gets to 7.0 in my mind.

FAAB, lineup decisions (especially flex) and more account for moving from 7.0 to 10.0 IMO. Just look at your FAAB last year to verify that.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:43 am

Originally posted by UFS:
What about all the posts about not going with ADP?
Footballguys has P.Holmes as the #4 scoring RB on their updated cheatsheet (9/5). That has NOTHING to do with ADP. Do you know the difference john?

TamuScarecrow · Post by **TamuScarecrow** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:43 am

wake up people. bell is in the doghouse right now. shanahahahan is "teaching him a lesson". bell will be starting come playoff weeks.Could be a Palmeiro deal where he is appealing an impending drug suspension.

David Wooderson · Post by **David Wooderson** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:03 am

Originally posted by Gantze Machers:
I can't find any info on the wire about the "real reason" that Tatum Bell is not starting. Is there anything to that, or is it just MB fodder? Nope, there is a real reason of significant substance involved. (And no its not a substance abuse problem)

David Wooderson · Post by **David Wooderson** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:11 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
care to speak up? i've been busy with football drafts and running my baseball teams, that i haven't had time to stay up on all the news. come on, all the nffc drafts are over, what's the real reason. thanks. [/QB]Absolutely not and everyone has been busy running their teams. This isnt anything you would have found on an info site, however......

a little hint.

Riddle Me this
Riddle Me that
Anyone who follows ACC Basketball sometime over the last 10 years
May find a similar situation just like that

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:28 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
What about all the posts about not going with ADP?
Footballguys has P.Holmes as the #4 scoring RB on their updated cheatsheet (9/5). That has NOTHING to do with ADP. Do you know the difference john? [/QUOTE]just bustin your chops.

Sounds to me like you've started to turn a little sheepish here. :rolleyes:

We've gone from sheep this, sheep that, to following footballguys to make a #1 pick?

"Your" sheep are now contemplating jumping off a cliff.

TamuScarecrow · Post by **TamuScarecrow** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:55 am

Nope, there is a real reason of significant substance involved. (And no its not a substance abuse problem)You're right, Dave, it's a lack of substance abuse called fumblitis. More stickem needed.

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 10:07 am

Originally posted by Gantze Machers:
I can't find any info on the wire about the "real reason" that Tatum Bell is not starting. Is there anything to that, or is it just MB fodder? Maybe Shanahan found out M.Anderson has become Tatums locker room daddy.

Coach S. couldn't start a guy he's witnessed wearing heels.

jsferenc · Post by **jsferenc** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 10:11 am

Originally posted by Route C:
quote:Originally posted by Gantze Machers:
I can't find any info on the wire about the "real reason" that Tatum Bell is not starting. Is there anything to that, or is it just MB fodder? Maybe Shanahan found out M.Anderson has become Tatums locker room daddy.

Coach S. couldn't start a guy he's witnessed wearing heels.

[/QUOTE]Classic! I thought that's not allowed in the NFL.

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Wed Nov 09, 2005 12:50 pm

With Priest gone for the year, a review of post #1 in this thread ...

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Now that the drafts are over I can comment on the priest-LJ debate. I grabbed him in the 3rd rd in tonight's Gekko draft.

The top 2 KC RBs scored a combined 32 ppg (481 total) last yr for KC thru wk 16. This included an 8 TD game, unlikely to happen again, and the OL is probably not quite as strong this yr. Cut the 8TD game in half plus another 5% off the top and the top 2 RBs score 29 ppg this yr.

update ... Priest and LJ have averaged a combined 28.9 ppg year-to-date

The average beginning NFL feature back missed 2.5 games last yr. Priest is higher than average risk, he missed 7 last yr thru week 16. Let's say over/under is he misses 5 this yr.

update - he'll miss the last seven games, 2 more than expected

If Priest gets 2/3rds of the carries until injured, he scores 19 ppg while LJ scores 10 PPG. For the 5 games in which LJ is the starter he scores 22.5 PPG (less sharing with the #3).

update - excluding game 9 in which Priest missed most of the game, he avd'g 18.4 ppg vs LJ's 10.3 ppg

Thus for the season:
Priest scores 190
LJ scores 210

LJ is also more likely to be around for the fantasy playoffs, further boosting his relative value.

update - assuming LJ stays healthy, he will outscore Priest by an even wider margin than predicted

Bottom line:
(1) They combine for close to 400 pts, not 500 as several have argued.
(2) LJ has more value than Priest. You heard it here first!
(3) Draft value - LJ should be right there with the other early to mid 3rd rd RBs, while Priest should go late 3rd/ early 4th, and finally ...
(4) ... anyone using a 1st and 3rd/4th rd pick to take both has seriously handicapped themselves. The best they can hope for is that Priest goes down before opening day allowing LJ to have a monster scoring season, averaging 22.5 ppg while using 1 roster spot, rather than averaging 29 ppg with 2 roster spots (a weak 6.5 incremental pts from the flex).

update - all conclusions look pretty damn good so far, just wish I had this strategy down going into the main draft too

Gekko, 3INTBOY, take your best shot ...