3rd Round Reversal (14_Teams)

[KOTRAX]

JUST OUT CURIOSITY IS THIS THE FIRST YEAR OF KDS AND 3RR TO THE NFFC. I AM OBVIOUSLY NEW HERE.

[Tom Kessenich]

This is the first year for 3RR and our second year of using KDS.

[Captain Hook]

terrible that I have to look at that screaming on this board too.

First year for 3RR
KDS was used last year

[KOTRAX]

GET USED TO IT HOOK.

[Captain Hook]

FORTUNATELY YOU ARE ONLY ACTIVE FROM PRE-SEASON THROUGH SOMETIME LATER IN THE YEAR AND I DON'T HAVE TO SEE IT ALL YEAR LONG

[KOTRAX]

THIS IS TRUE. REASON BEING IS THAT IT SEEMS LIKE OTHER PEOPLE ARE NOT AS INTERESTED DURING THE SEASON. IT'S LIKE PEOPLE LOVE THE RUSH OF THE DRAFT AND THE HYPE OF THE EVENT BUT ONCE THE SEASON STARTS EVERYONE KIND OF MELLOWS OUT. I LOVE TALKING FANTASY 24/7 BUT SINCE OTHERS REALLY DON'T IT IS NOT MUCH TO SAY. YOU CAN BET YOUR BOTTOM DOLLAR PEOPLE WILL BE TALKING ABOUT THE 2008 SEASON AND IMPROVEMENTS FOR IT BY WEEK 3 OF THE SEASON. That's all Perry. This last part is for you. Cherish it. You won't see it again.

[kjduke]

talk softly and carry a big stick Kotrax, much better than the opposite ...

[King of Queens]

Remember when Eddie Gillis used to post all in caps? A few gentle pokes and he was a reformed man.

Kotrax, I have hope for you.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Okay, the folks at Footballguys.com gave us permission to post the story here for our NFFC readers. Thanks to Joe Bryant and the crew there for allowing us to post this. I'm not sure the graphs will appear as they do on footballguys.com, but if not then subscribe to their service!! Here's the content, at the very least.

Third Round Reversal of Fortune (14 Teams)

  Posted 7/25 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Not every redraft league is created equal. If you've played fantasy football for a couple of years or longer, you probably have realized that there are advantages to getting the first pick. In the past few years, the first two or three draft picks have provided many fantasy teams with a competitive advantage. Just take a look at most teams that made the playoffs or even won their leagues with LaDainian Tomlinson last season and you will know exactly what we are talking about. Everyone wants the #1 RB every year, and this year is no different.

What are leagues doing to try and strike a competitive balance? Some leagues are going to an auction format where everyone can buy whomever they like as long as they are willing to spend for him, but not every league can manage to get all the owners together or even agree to do an auction. Still others are looking at a different way to set up the draft order to assist the teams drafting near the end of Round 1 that go beyond the traditional normal "serpentine" or "snake" draft format.

In this series of articles we will take a look at how these draft orders differ from one another, and just how much they do to creating better balance and make the draft fairer for each owner. However, before we get into each format, we need to set a baseline for values so that we can have a frame of reference.


May I Take Your Order?

Before we go too far, we need to define the different draft approaches that are out there:

Normal Serpentine ("Snake") Draft Order - This is the one that everyone has seen and is the most common draft style. The even rounds are the reverse order of the odd, meaning that if you pick first overall you go last in Round 2 and then first again in Round 3. That order continues back and forth as the draft "snakes" down the draft board, hence the name.
Third Round Reversal or "Banzai" - Often abbreviated "3RR", this alternative draft method has gained popularity in recent years. This style is often confused with Third Round Serpentine (See #3), but it is actually a much simpler draft format. Only Round 3 is reversed from the original "snake" draft order, so the person going last in Round 1 gets to go first in Rounds 2, 3 and 4. The owner who has the first overall pick doesn't start a round again until Round 5.
Third Round Serpentine or Third Round "Flip" - Often abbreviated "3RS", this draft method has also gained popularity of late, mostly because two national contests (NFFC and Rotobowl) have adopted this format. Unfortunately, they are both calling it "Third Round Reversal" (or "3RR") rather than by the correct name, which is confusing a lot of owners who are not familiar with either. Third Round Serpentine looks exactly like a snake draft except that the first two rounds are reversed. The person who drafts first in Round 1 goes last in Round 2 AND Round 3, meaning that the person going last in Round 1 goes first in Round 2 and Round 3 - hence the "flip". After that change in Round 3, it continues to snake down the draft board, just like before, so the twist occurs between Rounds 2 and 3.
Double Serpentine or "Double Snake" - This is yet another alternative to drafting where the owner who goes last in Round 1 leads off Rounds 2 and 3, but then the owner who started Round 1 gets to start Rounds 4 and 5. This continues for the remainder of the draft (two rounds match each other in order, then they switch for two) and the draft board looks like a snake draft except it twists back every two rounds instead of one.

If you didn't follow all of that, don't worry. I'll add some pictures to illustrate each type in a minute.


What is "Fair"

In order to see how balanced each of these approaches are, we first need to define a value for each pick. There's no better way around that I've found than just plugging each pick into a Pick Value Calculator, such as the one found at Footballguys. Of course everyone's opinion on what each pick is really worth can vary from year to year, but the calculator value method at least gives us an idea of a typical value for each pick. Even better news is that we will use these values to evaluate each method, so it will be more of an "apples to apples" comparison.

Now that we have a value basis, we can jump right in and evaluate each of these different draft orders and see how this all shapes up. Below you will find four tables, one for each format, for a 14-team, 14-round draft (beyond 14 rounds the value is insignificant). To make it easier to follow, I've color-coded the rounds. Those that are highlighted in tan are the rounds where the order is reversed.

Snakes are too Plain

So what does it all mean? What format is best, and which has the best distribution of value?

For that answer, we have to do a little bit of math. We are still putting faith in the values of the picks here, but again this is an apples-to-apples comparison across all four formats, so it should even itself out.

To determine what system appears to have the most equitable distribution of value, I will take a look at the overall totals for each Team's draft picks in each format as well as the first four, six, eight, ten and finally twelve picks. By taking this approach, we can see if the distribution of values is uniform throughout the draft(s) and if there is any favoritism towards any of the teams by choosing one method over another.

Here are the results:

Table 5: Value Distributions for All Formats - 14 Teams
Rounds
Snake
3RS
High
Low
% Diff.
High
Low
% Diff.
First 4
4142
3766
10%
4092
3812
7%
First 6
4945
4561
8%
4887
4612
6%
First 8
5335
4925
8%
5251
4995
5%
First 10
5505
5073
9%
5399
5157
5%
First 12
5598
5174
8%
5500
5253
5%
Total
5630
5191
8%
5517
5278
5%
Rounds
3RR
Double Snake
High
Low
% Diff.
High
Low
% Diff.
First 4
3960
3863
3%
4092
3812
7%
First 6
4763
4659
2%
4895
4606
6%
First 8
5153
5029
2%
5259
4989
5%
First 10
5323
5182
3%
5429
5138
6%
First 12
5416
5281
3%
5530
5232
6%
Total
5448
5302
3%
5562
5250
6%

So starting with the "Snake" version, we see that there is a bias at the early part of the draft towards the team that picks first, and it is pretty big (10% value difference). At every breakpoint, Team #1 is always the first in value and Team #14 is dead last.

The next best solution for a 14-team draft is the Double Snake format, which has a 7% difference at the onset but tapers down to a 5% difference by the end of Round 8 for a brief time, then regresses to 6% for the rest of the draft. The interesting part about this method is not that the #1 Team has the highest value, but which team has the lowest value. For each and every breakpoint in the Double Snake, Team #12 (not the final team, Teams #13 and #14 are better) is last.

An even better distribution comes from the Third Round Serpentine method, which has a 7% difference at the onset but tapers down to a 5% difference by the end of Round 8 and stays there for the rest of the draft. The interesting part about this method is not that the #1 Team has the highest value, but which team has the lowest value. For the first eight rounds it is Team #12, then after 10 rounds it is Team #11, and then for 12 rounds and beyond it is Team #10 that has the biggest disadvantage.

An even better distribution comes from the Double Snake format, which closely resembles the results for the Third Round Serpentine approach. That makes sense as the first four rounds for each are identical. Even the breakdown of which teams are the least advantageous match, with the same pattern occurring across Teams #10, #9 and #8 for the worst values. The slight difference in values reduces the net result by the end of the draft to closer to 2% than 3%, but the difference is very small.

(Note that with 12 teams, Third Round Serpentine fared worse than Double Snake, although both were close.)

Finally, the clear winner is Third Round Reversal, or "Banzai" style of drafting. Right at the start after four rounds, the variation is just 3% in point values and it even gets smaller at times (sometimes just 2%) as the draft progresses. The best team is still #1, but the worst team is now Team #8 for the first eight rounds. After both 10 and 12 rounds have passed, Team #8 and Team #9 are both tied for worst, but ultimately Team #9 finished last after 14 rounds.

After all this number-crunching, it seems rather safe to say that the true Third Round Reversal is the fairest approach to drafting for 14 teams, which also matched the 12 team draft answer. Next, we'll have to take a look at 16 team leagues and see what changes, if anything.

[ July 25, 2007, 04:36 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

[Greg Ambrosius]

I knew the graphs wouldn't show up as he had them, but hopefully the content will help. Enjoy and thanks Jeff.