Wednesday Chat Has Begun

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Aug 18, 2004 2:24 pm

I agree with you Diesel and when you're trying to win a huge grand prize like this, don't you buy low and hope to net high? I mean, if Jamal is the seventh best player overall and he drops so far it's scary, don't you take the gamble? Same with Faulk, although I understand the concern of spending two picks on one RB spot during the first five rounds. But again, don't you buy low and sell high, possibly winning the whole thing?

Personally, I see this year's drafts in all contests and open leagues being incredibly intriguing because of all the unknowns. And surprisingly, the unknowns include first-rounders.

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Wed Aug 18, 2004 2:50 pm

Depends on how good you think you are.

The poker pros stay away from the big early pot, even with a small positive expected value (EV) because they can make the final table by taking a little bit at a time. If they go all-in early and they have some bad luck (the other guy draws out), the tournament is finished for them. Jamal Lewis is an all-in. If he leaves after 8 games you lost your 1st round pick, Musa and Taylor would split his points when he's out.

I think I can win this tournament with picks 5 to 10 and a better plan. That means I stay away from Lewis and Faulk.

Gordon, on the other hand

, might feel he needs some big pots early to be able to stay with the pros until the final table. He would rightly take more risks.

To continue the analogy, at some point the EV is so high you have to play. With a first rounder safely on the roster there is a little less risk. Lewis in the 2nd round has such a large upside that you have to call. But in the 2nd round, you have a little better chance of making it to the League Championship if you lose him.

Faulk has a much lower upside because we KNOW he's hurt. The Faulk/Jackson handcuff is the same as trading Michael Bennett (2nd round) and Rod Smith (5th round) for the Ram's RB. Is that a big plus? Not clear. Especially when you consider Jackson also has a sore knee and they might wind up sharing.

So, lots of ways to gamble and lots of odds to consider. Who's going to make it to the final table?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Aug 18, 2004 2:55 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Downgrade ... Delhomme on your cheatsheets. From your lips to the ears of everyone in my main league, Gordon.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Aug 18, 2004 3:01 pm

Originally posted by JerseyPaul:
I think I can win this tournament with picks 5 to 10 and a better plan. That means I stay away from Lewis and Faulk. I never said I was going to draft Faulk. Only Steven Jackson.

Originally posted by JerseyPaul:
Gordon, on the other hand

, might feel he needs some big pots early to be able to stay with the pros until the final table. He would rightly take more risks. Gambling on S.Jackson isn't as big a risk as you make it out to be. Sorry.

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Wed Aug 18, 2004 3:23 pm

Gordon, was just trying to make a point about risk taking and tournament strategy. Just used your name for entertainment value. I know you're not interested in Faulk.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Aug 18, 2004 3:31 pm

One of the keys to winning a fantasy football championship is getting players who will outperform their draft positions. When I look at the RBs who will likely be taken in the second round, I don't see too many who fall into that category. One of the few I do see, however, is Faulk.

Consider that after Faulk returned from his injury last season, he averaged 103 yards rushing with five 100-yard games, 24 receptions and 7 TDs in Weeks 11-16. That's outstanding production. Clearly, when Faulk is on the field he remains more than capable of being a top-flight fantasy RB.

The kicker, of course, is that he's a virtual lock to get injured and there's no way of knowing when it will happen. So that means you have to invest in Jackson or hope to find a solid replacement at some point in your draft. And, most importantly, you have to hope Faulk isn't out for long - especially if you don't land Jackson.

Is it a gamble? Absolutely. That's one of the reasons why Faulk was one of the most prominent "Wild Cards" I listed in the story I wrote for the September issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine. He's a guy who can make or break your season. Personally, I don't like to gamble with a high draft pick. But in a 1 point/reception league and given Faulk's clear talent (no way will he share carries with Jackson if he's able to play; that's simply not going to happen), taking him in the second round is a move that could lead to you having something no other team in the league will have:

2 First-round caliber RBs.

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Wed Aug 18, 2004 3:54 pm

I don't think "value" comes into play in rounds 1 and 2. At the extreme, there can be no value with pick 1 yet we know that pick is coveted. In rounds 1 and 2 you need to lay the foundation for your team. Solid foundation, built on stone, not sand. With NFFC scoring I'm looking for 35 points a game. I'll give up the 3 or 4 points just to know I'm solid. Starting in round 3, and more likely round 4 I will get players who will out-perform their draft position.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Aug 18, 2004 4:01 pm

Originally posted by JerseyPaul:
I don't think "value" comes into play in rounds 1 and 2. At the extreme, there can be no value with pick 1 yet we know that pick is coveted. In rounds 1 and 2 you need to lay the foundation for your team. Solid foundation, built on stone, not sand. With NFFC scoring I'm looking for 35 points a game. I'll give up the 3 or 4 points just to know I'm solid. Starting in round 3, and more likely round 4 I will get players who will out-perform their draft position. I agree, which is why if you can get someone in the second round who could perform like a first-round pick, it's something to consider.

Again, if this was not a 1 point/reception league, I'd have no interest in Faulk. Far too risky. In fact, I'll be picking 11th in my main league and I won't touch him with either of my first two picks if he's there because we don't award 1 point/reception in that league. But in the NFFC and other 1 point/reception leagues, his receiving ability increases his value.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Aug 19, 2004 10:37 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Again, if this was not a 1 point/reception league, I'd have no interest in Faulk. But in the NFFC and other 1 point/reception leagues, his receiving ability increases his value. It could be 2pts/rec and I'd have no interest in Faulk. Why handicap yourself by losing your 2nd round pick to injury? You know he will get hurt, most likely for the majority of the season. This is a case of big risk for ZERO reward. Sorry. Steven Jackson is the ticket here.