What's The Latest Trends In KDS?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 3:39 am

We've created and run over a dozen NFFC pay leagues so far this year and an interesting trend is occurring even before Draft Day. You can see a real trend right now in the KDS settings and trust me it's not as easy to understand as past years.

Hey, before we set up the Kentucky Derby System (KDS), which allows owners to tell us their draft spot preferences, it seemed like everyone wanted to be near the top of the draft. Everyone wanted the top picks so that they could get a shot at the top players. Third Round Reversal obviously changed that later, but originally it seemed like most KDS preferences started 1,2,3 and changed after that.

Then with the WRs becoming more and more valuable, you saw a few more owners going down to the bottom of the draft order and teams that weren't going 1,2,3 were going 14,13,12 and changing from there. Tom Yates won the $100,000 Classic prize in 2009 using his top KDS to draft from the 14th spot and last year we saw even more owners going down to the bottom of the draft. But the one obvious trend last year was that hardly anybody wanted to draft in the middle, especially around 5 or 6. The middle was not desired ground in 2010.

That seems to be changing this year. In the past couple of weeks, we've noticed over the last 4-5 drafts that the middle of the draft order is now becoming the most desired KDS preference. The latest Slow Draft saw five of 14 owners picking either 5 or 6 as their top preference, while No. 1 had three owners and No. 14 also had three owners. No. 7 was in the Top 5 of KDS preferences in that draft 8 of 14 times, something you just didn't see last year. In fact, 7 was the last preference listed last year in most cases.

This mixed bag of opinions is really giving a lot of people their first preferences in NFFC drafts. This latest Slow Draft had SIX owners get their top preference out of 14 owners. We haven't had that many owners getting their top preference in past years, but there have been a couple of drafts so far with that many this early in the year. Amazing. But because so many owners are thinking the same way, those owners picked near the bottom of the random order are still getting lower preferences because there's a new undesired. I won't say what it is because that area could change soon after free agency, but you don't see a lot of top preferences for the 9-11 area.

How are you feeling about KDS this year? Are you thinking the same way as these other owners? Are you leaning more towards the top, bottom or middle right now? Does it matter to you where you draft in NFFC leagues this year? Let's talk about it and see if this trend changes as we get closer to Draft Day. Thanks all.

mattjb · Post by **mattjb** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 4:12 am

Just shows how much uncertainty there is going into this years draft.

Obviously the lock out and the fact there are so many free agents still to move but also because there are question marks over many of the top players.

Without a clear cut number one (in my eyes atleast) it's just not worth waiting 20+ plus picks to pick again.

[ July 22, 2011, 10:13 AM: Message edited by: mattjb ]

telestar · Post by **telestar** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 4:57 am

Thanks for the info Greg. I think this shows that there is divergence on when the drop-off in talent occurs. If everyone was convinced that the top four RBS were far and away the best picks, then you'd see a KDS lean towards #1-4. But if the talent is more even, then it is great to be in the middle of a 14 owner draft so you can not be closed out by a run at a particular position.
As for me, I think it is too early to tell right now. Once we have free agents landing, then it will be easier to have a view on the top talent. It would be interesting to see if the drafts after August 1 had a more even KDS preference than those that came early.

kentucky · Post by **kentucky** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 8:40 am

I feel the first two rounds are well balanced this year. So well balanced, it's difficult to screw up the first two picks. As previously stated, in the past, drafters felt it necessary to get that stud RB in the first 3-4 picks. Now, it seems you can get a pretty dang good RB in round two to go with that stud WR from round one, and vice-versa. Not to mention, drafting in the middle and coming away from the first few rounds happy has the benefit of avoiding the various runs that can occur later in the draft.

Sabretooth · Post by **Sabretooth** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:57 am

If I had to set my KDS right now it would probably be something like 1,2,3,14,13,12....and yes I agree 9-11 are a bit undesirable. 7 seems like a spot to still be able to land one of the top 6 backs as well.

Pappy · Post by **Pappy** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:59 pm

This is my first year using KDS so I can't really speak to how this year compares to previous years. Speaking for myself, I have never seen a year where the 1st round talent is spread so evenly. In the past there has always been a clear cut top 2-3 guys. Going back a few years LT was THE number one pick, hands down. Then Peterson came along and there was some competition for that spot. Then we had guys like MJD, Rice and Forte muddle up the top of the round a little more. Now we are seeing a QB or two go in the 1st. Sometimes in the early 1st.

There are always going to be people that fall in love with THAT guy and want him in the top 3 or want the back to back picks at the end of the 1st, but with the emergence of so many fantasy stars in recent years a lot of people are finding the value in the middle of the 1st.. With guys like Forte, SJax, and Mendenhall generally being bumped to the second round, having that early to mid second rounder is allowing owners to get a very formidable 1-2 punch. I could list my top 6 draft choices and for the most part if someone's else list was in the complete opposite order of mine it would be hard to argue with them.

And I didn't even get into the top WRs.

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 2:34 pm

Originally posted by Sabretooth:
If I had to set my KDS right now it would probably be something like 1,2,3,14,13,12....and yes I agree 9-11 are a bit undesirable. 7 seems like a spot to still be able to land one of the top 6 backs as well. That is so funny. My favorite place would be about 9-10 with the 1-3 and 12-14 being my last 6 choices. I love KDS.

Wayne

SS · Post by SS » Fri Jul 22, 2011 3:47 pm

I was thinking 10, but it really depends if it is a 12 teamer or 14 teamer, that makes a difference too.

Don't want to give up my strategy for this year, but there is a reason why I want to draft later than earlier this year...

kentucky · Post by **kentucky** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 5:21 am

Originally posted by Coltsfan:
quote:Originally posted by Sabretooth:
If I had to set my KDS right now it would probably be something like 1,2,3,14,13,12....and yes I agree 9-11 are a bit undesirable. 7 seems like a spot to still be able to land one of the top 6 backs as well. That is so funny. My favorite place would be about 9-10 with the 1-3 and 12-14 being my last 6 choices. I love KDS.

Wayne [/QUOTE]unfortunately, I'm with you Wayne. I love the 7-10 slots this year. I don't think FA will play much part into my thinking as I don't feel it will affect the first three rounds much. I don't mind sitting at 7-8 and taking the "culls"

[ July 23, 2011, 11:33 AM: Message edited by: KyThunder ]