NFFC Notables

[SNAKE II]

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Paul Clein is our current NFFC leader. He drafted 13th in Chicago League 1. His top players are:

Willis McGahee (1st round)
Steve Smith (2nd round)
Ronnie Brown (3rd round)
Braylon Edwards (5th round)
Tony Romo (6th round)
Kellen Winslow (7th round)

He drafted Kenny Watson in the 16th and picked up Nick Folk in FAAB. There's certainly some luck involved with Watson producing given how Rudi Johnson had been incredibly durable prior to this season but you have to give Paul credit for targeting him late. Folk was a sharp pickup in FAAB.

Brown going off has been a huge plus and maybe there's a little luck involved there but if Paul really believed in him than he deserves credit for getting huge value in the third round. Edwards, Winslow and Romo are all players having huge seasons and I believe Paul should be praised for his skill in drafting them.

The one area where luck has probably been involved the most for Paul is that he hasn't had any major injuries so far. I'm not trying to jinx you, Paul. So there's good fortune involved in that regard. But looking at his team, I see a guy who drafted very well and has made at least one good pickup in FAAB.

He also drafted Selvin Young in the 17th round so that's another pick that could have huge value as the season goes on. I am only acting on behalf of SNAKE who sent me this post via e-mail and requested that I post it here for him for a nominal sum;


TK (and Greg)...your analysis here is nice and tidy and has many accurate points...however you are discounting the sans-injury factor for Shrunk's squad here a wee bit too much ISHO...SNAKE would like to offer up his team as a sacrificial guinea pig to you and any other comrade here willing to point out just where he might have gone wrong in his own draft this season...the ONLY place was perhaps in drafting Ahman Green in the 4th round as he is a player who came with an injury/age question mark/risk, but other than that when your top players go down, and then the players you picked in the later rounds go down, and then the players that you pick up as FA's go down, what is one left with - crappola?...sorry, as SNAKE is NOT being bitter here but simply pragmatic; LUCK in the form of avoidance of injuries is indeed playing a bigger role (the BIGGEST) in a team's success year to date this season than in any other one beforehand...The Serpent would venture to put the number this year at around 70-75%% luck and 25%-30% skill EVEN if you did draft "skillfully", "correctly", "expertly", or whatever adjective you would like to insert here...and yes GG, SNAKE does plan on being in the playoffs in The Main as this will be the first week since Week 2 that he might, just MIGHT, be finally playing with the squad that he drafted and envisioned he would be playing with when he left the draft room on 9/1/07...SNAKE also realizes that as bad as his team's injuries have been there are still teams out there that are in worse shape than his is (but not many)...again, SNAKE is NOT looking for sympathy nor making excuses here but merely pointing out that he drafted what he thought was an extremely competitive team that has not yielded expected results NOT due to lack of production (ie bad drafting ABILITY) but rather due to injuries (ie bad LUCK)...any and all comrades can certainly feel free to attempt to poke holes in the SNAKEtheory here...thanks much...


SNAKE's 2007 Draft (in paranthesis are players who have missed or will miss gameS - plural - due to injury):


1) Brian Westbrook (injured)
2) Reggie Wayne
3) Javon Walker (injured)
4) Ahman Green (injured)
5) Joey Galloway
6) Vernon Davis (injured)
7) John Kitna
8) Vernand Morency (injured when drafted)
9) Jacoby Jones (injured)
10) Sammy Morris (injured)
11) Brandon Jones (injured)
12) Matt Schaub
13) Dwayne Bowe
14) Najeh Davenport (had to drop due to injuries)
15) Eric Johnson (had to drop due to injuries)
16) Noah Herron (injured)
17) David Akers
18) Minnesota Vikings


FA PICKUPS:

1) Derrick Ward (injured but playing)
2) David Martin
2) Samkon Gado (the REAL backup in Houston and Ahmaninsurance)
3) Bo Scaife
4) Jason Avant


...SNAKE

[ October 17, 2007, 03:37 PM: Message edited by: SNAKE II ]

[SNAKE II]

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Do we really have two snakes now? Actually the answer is no Thomas as I am only acting on the real SNAKE's behalf via his e-mails to me as a conduit by posting FOR him for a nominal fee.

[Tom Kessenich]

Interesting.

[SNAKE II]

SNAKE writes that he is awaiting your assessment Thomas. Thank you.

[Tom Kessenich]

Westbrook and Green both came with durability issues so it was not a surprise to see them miss time. Morency obviously was hurt so I wouldn't count him. The other guys who were hurt were upside picks so losing them shouldn't have had a significant impact on the team's ability to win. You're basically hoping to hit on a couple of guys like that but you can't - or shouldn't - expect greatness.

I think you can attribute bad luck to the injuries sustained by Walker and Davis but that's about it. If you're drafting Westbrook, you do so knowing he will likely miss time and so you have to draft accordingly. And there were no reasons to expect Green to stay healthy given his injury history.

So I don't see a lot of bad luck here when injury-prone players get hurt. Bowe in the 13th was a nice pick.

[Greg Ambrosius]

SNAKE, since you put your squad out there as an example of how luck is playing a major role in your team's performance, let's look at your draft and see how you could have drafted with a little more skill. Now granted, hindsight is 20-20, but your team definitely could look differently had you made different choices.

Your squad and what you could have had:
1. Brian Westbrook -- Willie Parker went next
2. Reggie Wayne -- Reggie Wayne was best pick
3. Javon Walker -- Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady, Randy Moss
4. Ahman Green -- Braylon Edwards, Plaxico Burress
5. Joey Galloway -- Tony Gonzalez
6. Vernon Davis -- Greg Jennings or Fred Taylor
7. Jon Kitna -- Kevin Curtis or Jason Witten
8. Vernand Morency -- Wes Welker went two picks later
9. Jacoby Jones -- James Jones went next pick; Eli Manning
10. Sammy Morris -- best pick here
11. Brandon Jones -- Patrick Crayton went two picks later
12. Matt Schaub -- best pick; Selvin Young went next
13. Dwayne Bowe -- best pick
14. Najeh Davenport -- Kevin Walter went next pick
15. Eric Johnson -- Green Bay D
16. Noah Herron -- Robbie Gould
17. David Akers -- David Garrard or Marty Booker
18. Minnesota D -- best pick

Again, hindsight is 20-20, but Johnny and Ed Killmer took several players two picks after you that looking back would have been better selections for your team. Bad luck all around.

Oh, and you haven't added enough impact free agents yet to fill in your holes caused by injuries. But there's still a long season to go.

[ October 17, 2007, 01:56 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

[SNAKE II]

SNAKE writes that he will respectfully disagree (he actually wrote "blaspemy" here but I chose to not use that nasty term) with you here and also wants to know what happens when players like Sammy Morris and Brandon Jones that you drafted as bye-week and injury spot-starters go down in addition to your frontline starters being down as well? Is that bad luck as well or poor planning?

[SNAKE II]

Greg - SNAKE writes that many of the "better" choices that you use as an example in your 20/20 hindsight post are used against his team's players that are hurt and therefore it's an INJURY-RELATED comparison thereby negating the example and making it unjustified. Again, please go easy on me as I am only the messenger here guys. Thank you.

[KOTRAX]

JUST OUT OF CURIOUSITY GREG EVEN IN HINDSIGHT WHY WOULD WILLIE PARKER BEEN A BETTER PICK THAN WESTBROOK? 1TD ON THE YEAR AND IS CURRENTLY RANKED 16TH IN RB IN OUR SCORING FORMAT.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by SNAKE II:
Greg - SNAKE writes that many of the "better" choices that you use as an example in your 20/20 hindsight post are used against his team's players that are hurt and therefore it's an INJURY-RELATED comparison thereby negating the example and making it unjustified. Again, please go easy on me as I am only the messenger here guys. Thank you. Tell SNAKE that you're about as impossible to understand as SNAKE. All I know is that this could have been his roster:

1. Brian Westbrook
2. Reggie Wayne
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Plaxico Burress
5. Tony Gonzalez
6. Greg Jennings
7. Jon Kitna
8. Wes Welker
9. Eli Manning
10. Sammy Morris
11. Patrick Crayton
12. Matt Schaub
13. Dwayne Bowe
14. Kevin Walter
15. Eric Johnson
16. Robbie Gould
17. Marty Booker
18. Minnesota D

And you could have added to this squad via FAAB better. Now is this luck or skill? Why anyone would say 70 percent luck is beyond me. It's like saying the Saints have been 70 percent unlucky this year compared to last year. It's more a lack of skill than a lack of good fortune.

Tell SNAKE his self-imposed MB hiatus officially ends after Sunday's games. See ya then.

[ October 17, 2007, 02:17 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]