My Week 1 Vibes

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Sep 05, 2007 4:08 am

OK, the preseason is finally over. No more phony games. No more paying full price for tickets to watch LT stand on the sidelines and Peyton Manning take a handful of snaps and then run for cover.

It’s time for the real games to begin. And there may not be a more exciting opener possible than the Saints traveling to Indy to face the Super Bowl champs.

Think a few fantasy owners will be glued to their sets on Thursday night?

But now we’ve had four preseason games under our belts. We have had time to process Byron Leftwich being cut, the Broncos having yet another parade of names in the backfield (yawn) and somebody named Matt Prater winning the kicking job in Atlanta. All of that has come and gone so it’s time to rev up for Week 1 and that means I may have one or two things on my mind.

So here goes:

Greg and I are competing in WCOFF this year. It’s my first venture and Greg’s second and we have the 7th pick in our league. I think it’s a lock we’ll end up with one of the following RBs – Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush, Willie Parker or Joseph Addai. A LOT will depend on the Thursday game. If Bush or Addai go off, then I think they both go Top 5. So maybe Frank Gore slides. In any event, we’re assured of getting a stud RB in the first round. I’m starting to smell that $300,000 grand prize already.

Have I mentioned how strongly I want to avoid the Green Bay running game? Well I’m telling you again. It’s a mess and I don’t think either Brandon Jackson or Vernand Morency emerges as a reliable fantasy option. I think one or both could be decent at times but good luck trying to figure out when they’ll have some decent games.

I’m feeling some Man Love for Adrian Peterson. When I look back at last year and see what Maurice Jones-Drew and Reggie Bush did in the second half of the season, I could see Peterson emerging in a similar way. I went after him in my main league and I think he has the talent to be a Top 15-20 RB this season.

I don’t know how things went in your drafts but in mine, people have forgotten about Isaac Bruce. They will regret that – especially in PPR leagues. Trust me.

That smile you’re seeing is likely coming from the Wes Welker owner in your league. And considering where they likely got him, they should be smiling.

I’m still not feeling any love for Ronnie Brown. I really think it comes down to this – for whatever reason Cam Cameron doesn‘t seem to trust him. Brown may prove him wrong but something tells me this will be a season-long issue.

Anybody want to bet the over on Rex Grossman turnovers on Sunday against the Chargers?

Speaking of bets, my stone cold lock pick of the week is Detroit being a 1-point underdog at Oakland. Take the Lions and the point. No way the Raiders stop Martz’s passing attack.

While Grossman is a QB outside the Top 15 I don’t feel good about there are some I do think could emerge this season and become solid starters at worst. They are: Matt Schaub, Jake Delhomme and Alex Smith. In my main league draft I had a shot at all three as my QB2 and went with Schaub only because I think his upside for this season is higher. But Delhomme has proven his ability in the past and the addition of Darrell Jackson will be huge for Smith in San Francisco.

Anybody else wonder just how good Lee Evans could be if he had a big-time QB or is it just me?

That said, you may want to lower your expectations for Evans this week against Denver. Facing Champ Bailey on one side of the field and Dre Bly on the other isn’t exactly a picnic for any WR – even one of Evans’ immense talent.

And finally, it may not happen this season but Santonio Holmes will soon be the best WR on the Steelers’ roster. He is poised for a big step forward in 2007.

da bears · Post by **da bears** » Wed Sep 05, 2007 4:31 am

Yeah I agree with you Tom about Issac Bruce this year but also watch out for Drew Bennett. He could be huge especially with Holt being hobbled. Yeah I'm afraid my Bears may get their butts handed to them by the Chargers. The Bears run defense better have improved from last years Super Bowl. Good luck to you and Greg at the WCOFF this weekend. Bring home that 300K this year!

jdobies64 · Post by **jdobies64** » Wed Sep 05, 2007 5:46 am

Hey Tom, just curious your thoughts on Kitna vs. Bulger. I think with no K. Jones early, Mike Martz, Roy Williams, Calvin "The Freak" Johnson and Mike Furrey, the recipe is there for a huge year. I honestly think he will put up better numbers than Bulger yet Bulger has been going about three rounds earlier. I wonder what your thougts (or anyone elses) were? Thanks.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Sep 05, 2007 5:48 am

Originally posted by jdobies64:
Hey Tom, just curious your thoughts on Kitna vs. Bulger. I think with no K. Jones early, Mike Martz, Roy Williams, Calvin "The Freak" Johnson and Mike Furrey, the recipe is there for a huge year. I honestly think he will put up better numbers than Bulger yet Bulger has been going about three rounds earlier. I wonder what your thougts (or anyone elses) were? Thanks. One word describes my thoughts about Kitna:

THROW

I have Kitna ranked third among QBs this week. For the season I like Bulger more because I believe his TD potential is higher and because I worry a bit about Kitna's age and ability to stay healthy for a full season in a Martz offense. It's no coincidence in my opinion that Bulger's first healthy season came after Martz left. But I love the WR talent Detroit has and with a possibly suspect running game that will only make Martz happier because he hates running the ball. As long as he's healthy, I view Kitna as an elite fantasy QB. The question is: Can he stay healthy for the entire season?

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Wed Sep 05, 2007 5:49 am

After last weekend, when I think manlove, I now think Rick Thomas.

I use to think Jack Cust.

jdobies64 · Post by **jdobies64** » Wed Sep 05, 2007 5:51 am

You dont think that Holt's advancing age (and knee problems), Bruce REALLY getting up there in years (I know you like him) will effect Bulger's numbers at all? I think if they both play the entire season Kitna will out perform him in yards and TD's, in my humble opinion. Also, would rather have Bulger in the 4th/5th round or Kitna in 7/8?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Sep 05, 2007 5:53 am

Originally posted by jdobies64:
You dont think that Holt's advancing age (and knee problems), Bruce REALLY getting up there in years (I know you like him) will effect Bulger's numbers at all? I think if they both play the entire season Kitna will out perform him in yards and TD's, in my humble opinion. Also, would rather have Bulger in the 4th/5th round or Kitna in 7/8? Not worried about Bulger. They'll run well, they have added good options in the passing game in Leonard and McMichael; I do like Bruce a lot and I think Bennett is no worse than solid. I have no concerns about Bulger as long as he stays healthy which I believe he can with Martz gone.

As far as who I'd rather have it depends on who else I got if I passed on Bulger. I really wanted a top QB in my drafts this year and I got one in every league but my main league where the run on the top six was insane. I'd happily take Bulger if I could get him.

[ September 05, 2007, 11:54 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

da bears · Post by **da bears** » Wed Sep 05, 2007 5:55 am

Originally posted by jdobies64:
You dont think that Holt's advancing age (and knee problems), Bruce REALLY getting up there in years (I know you like him) will effect Bulger's numbers at all? I think if they both play the entire season Kitna will out perform him in yards and TD's, in my humble opinion. Also, would rather have Bulger in the 4th/5th round or Kitna in 7/8? No way Kitna lasted till the 7/8th round in any draft this past weekend I bet. He was gone by the end of the fifth in most draftboards that I saw.

jdobies64 · Post by **jdobies64** » Wed Sep 05, 2007 5:56 am

I got him (Kitna) in New York 4 with the 8th pick in the 7th round, which I thought was great value.

da bears · Post by **da bears** » Wed Sep 05, 2007 5:59 am

Originally posted by jdobies64:
I got him (Kitna) in New York 4 with the 8th pick in the 7th round, which I thought was great value. Yeah that is great value for Kitna. I'm really surprised to see him last that long in any league.