Originally posted by 3INT/BFDFANTASYfootball.com:
[QUOTE]Greg, you keep saying solid teams and balance, but that is your opinion, my problem is you state is near to fact. Including the recent article I read where you argue 3RR is the next logical change to Fantasy Football. Lou, you lost me here. I'm saying there are solid teams and balance in the completed NFFC Satellite leagues, right? And you're saying the top teams are even more powerful, is that right? So do you think that those top 3, 4 or 5 teams in the satellite leagues would be less powerful without 3RR?
Yes, I did write that fantasy football is a young hobby and that changes have been made to the scoring format to improve the game. Unfortunately, there's a real resistance to anything involving change to the randomly selected, serpentine format in fantasy football. Why?? I think when participants compete in one-year only leagues and use 3RR, they will find it balances the competition. And more leagues will change to 3RR in the near future than they did before we made the change.
You and Nag each have the 12th pick in the WCOFF, so at season's end let me know if 3RR would have benefitted you or not. I'll be interested in your opinion and I trust it will make a good column on your site.
Maybe I'm wrong about 3RR. I know you want to see me proven wrong, but we'll see. Let the games begin. And give me a call as I have a bet for you on 3RR that we can settle up at season's end.
NFFC Satellite League Results
-
Greg Ambrosius
- Posts: 36393
- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
NFFC Satellite League Results
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
NFFC Satellite League Results
Originally posted by JerseyPaul:
What is being missed by the 3RR naysayers, especially Nag', is that fantasy production follows very predictable patterns, only the names of the players are unknown.
A "fair" game is one in which anybody joining has an equal chance at winning. What that means is that if you knew ahead of time the season end results, everybody drafting would pick the optimum player and the results would be almost a tie. The performance curves, however, would not yield that result. The difference in scoring decreases as you go deeper into the draft. The first player to draft would win every time.
Okay, obviously we don't know the identity of RB1 for sure as any player can get injured, or have an off year or have his line break down, etc. But the pure mathematics of fantasy football is that the number 1 pick has an advantage the must be overcome by other players' greater luck or skill. If all players were equally lucky and equally skilled, number 1 would win, particularly in traditional serpentine drafts. It's not a great feeling to enter a draft knowing you are behind before you start and have to "catch up".
Greg's 3RR attempts to mitigate that edge and provide a level start. It goes a long way to doing that. A true 3RR, i.e. 1,14,14,14,1,14 (same pattern as normal serpentine except round 3 is reversed) is the best leveler but you guys would scream way too loud.
At this point in time 3RS provides the NFFC with a real competitive edge over WCOFF. It's one reason NFFC will fill it's projected event target and capture many who previously were on the sidelines. Perhaps the only part of this entire post that I agree with is people screaming too loud over your true 3RR. The rest of it is, well, nonsense. If fantasy production followed perdictable patterns explain 2004 compared to 2005 and 2006. And in any of those years the middle of the draft would have remained relatively unchanged. So there goes your "fairness" argument. If you knew ahead of time? If I knew ahead of time who was going to win the Super Bowl I'd go bet them right now. That's a ridiculous argument.
And let's stop with pretending that the game starts after the draft spots are assigned. EVERYONE has the same chance at the first pick if that's their choice with KDS or not. And please tell me how many people have NOT picked number 1 as their preferred spot?
As far as 3RR increasing signups, I would say the fraction of people joining directly because of 3RR is very small. Most would join anyway. It's not like the entrants are doubled. A far bigger effect would be to move to 12 teams as 14-team leagues is a bigger detterent for people than the way the draft order is determined.
GG is correct, all 3RR does is give you the perception that you can win from anywhere. And that's good. I'd like to ask one question. What will the results need to be for 3RR to be considered a success? And I don't mean just this year, but over a period of time. What will cause you to say hey, this is the greatest thing since slcied bread?
What is being missed by the 3RR naysayers, especially Nag', is that fantasy production follows very predictable patterns, only the names of the players are unknown.
A "fair" game is one in which anybody joining has an equal chance at winning. What that means is that if you knew ahead of time the season end results, everybody drafting would pick the optimum player and the results would be almost a tie. The performance curves, however, would not yield that result. The difference in scoring decreases as you go deeper into the draft. The first player to draft would win every time.
Okay, obviously we don't know the identity of RB1 for sure as any player can get injured, or have an off year or have his line break down, etc. But the pure mathematics of fantasy football is that the number 1 pick has an advantage the must be overcome by other players' greater luck or skill. If all players were equally lucky and equally skilled, number 1 would win, particularly in traditional serpentine drafts. It's not a great feeling to enter a draft knowing you are behind before you start and have to "catch up".
Greg's 3RR attempts to mitigate that edge and provide a level start. It goes a long way to doing that. A true 3RR, i.e. 1,14,14,14,1,14 (same pattern as normal serpentine except round 3 is reversed) is the best leveler but you guys would scream way too loud.
At this point in time 3RS provides the NFFC with a real competitive edge over WCOFF. It's one reason NFFC will fill it's projected event target and capture many who previously were on the sidelines. Perhaps the only part of this entire post that I agree with is people screaming too loud over your true 3RR. The rest of it is, well, nonsense. If fantasy production followed perdictable patterns explain 2004 compared to 2005 and 2006. And in any of those years the middle of the draft would have remained relatively unchanged. So there goes your "fairness" argument. If you knew ahead of time? If I knew ahead of time who was going to win the Super Bowl I'd go bet them right now. That's a ridiculous argument.
And let's stop with pretending that the game starts after the draft spots are assigned. EVERYONE has the same chance at the first pick if that's their choice with KDS or not. And please tell me how many people have NOT picked number 1 as their preferred spot?
As far as 3RR increasing signups, I would say the fraction of people joining directly because of 3RR is very small. Most would join anyway. It's not like the entrants are doubled. A far bigger effect would be to move to 12 teams as 14-team leagues is a bigger detterent for people than the way the draft order is determined.
GG is correct, all 3RR does is give you the perception that you can win from anywhere. And that's good. I'd like to ask one question. What will the results need to be for 3RR to be considered a success? And I don't mean just this year, but over a period of time. What will cause you to say hey, this is the greatest thing since slcied bread?
You'll be fine long as your pretty face holds out, then it's gonna get pretty cold out...
NFFC Satellite League Results
Greg, I think 3RR and KDS helps the better FF players. For this reason Lou has issues with these changes. 
But it should be a fun year.
But it should be a fun year.
-
Sound Advice
- Posts: 541
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 6:00 pm
NFFC Satellite League Results
I'd have to say, "so far, so good".
NFFC Satellite League Results
I THINK ONE THING WE STILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT IS THAT IS THIS THE ONLY YEAR THAT THE NUMBER 1 PICK WILL BE THE SAME PERSON IN ALL 26 LEAGUES OR IN THE WCOFF CASE 70 LEAGUES. I HAVE BEEN PLAYING FANTASY FOR YEARS AS WELL AS MOST OF YOU. HOWEVER CAN ANY ONE SAY THAT THERE HAS BEEN A YEAR THAT THERE WAS A CLEAR CUT NUMBER 1 LIKE THIS YEAR?
-
Greg Ambrosius
- Posts: 36393
- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
NFFC Satellite League Results
Originally posted by 4D:
[QUOTE] I'd like to ask one question. What will the results need to be for 3RR to be considered a success? And I don't mean just this year, but over a period of time. What will cause you to say hey, this is the greatest thing since slcied bread? Retention rate is a great measure of whether you have a good product or not. WCOFF knows that and I certainly know that in the NFFC and NFBC. If folks don't come back each year, you know something isn't right with your product.
I track this as closely as I track the signups and I call all past attendees to get their feedback, even if they're not coming back. So I know first-hand what our folks are feeling about our game and I know exactly how many people return each year. In football, we retain around 75% and in baseball it's over 80%, not counting co-managers who split and grab their own teams or add additional teams.
This year folks who can't make it back to the NFFC's live event are telling me their reasons as conflict of schedules, more than anything else. I'm hearing fewer complaints about the larger 14-team format. Next year, hopefully our retention rate will be higher and our growth will continue at its current pace. If it does, 3RR will have a small part in that, along with good customer service, a good stats service, good prizes, fun Draft Day experience, etc. 3RR doesn't have to change the world for us to consider it successful, it just needs to provide a better feeling about where you're drafting from and continue to make the NFFC worth its price point to the folks who play each year.
Why was inventing sliced bread given such prominence anyway??
I mean, how tough was it to invent that?? Sheesh, 3RR is more innovative than cutting a loaf of break, wouldn't you say 4D??
[QUOTE] I'd like to ask one question. What will the results need to be for 3RR to be considered a success? And I don't mean just this year, but over a period of time. What will cause you to say hey, this is the greatest thing since slcied bread? Retention rate is a great measure of whether you have a good product or not. WCOFF knows that and I certainly know that in the NFFC and NFBC. If folks don't come back each year, you know something isn't right with your product.
I track this as closely as I track the signups and I call all past attendees to get their feedback, even if they're not coming back. So I know first-hand what our folks are feeling about our game and I know exactly how many people return each year. In football, we retain around 75% and in baseball it's over 80%, not counting co-managers who split and grab their own teams or add additional teams.
This year folks who can't make it back to the NFFC's live event are telling me their reasons as conflict of schedules, more than anything else. I'm hearing fewer complaints about the larger 14-team format. Next year, hopefully our retention rate will be higher and our growth will continue at its current pace. If it does, 3RR will have a small part in that, along with good customer service, a good stats service, good prizes, fun Draft Day experience, etc. 3RR doesn't have to change the world for us to consider it successful, it just needs to provide a better feeling about where you're drafting from and continue to make the NFFC worth its price point to the folks who play each year.
Why was inventing sliced bread given such prominence anyway??
I mean, how tough was it to invent that?? Sheesh, 3RR is more innovative than cutting a loaf of break, wouldn't you say 4D?? Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
-
Gordon Gekko
- Posts: 7222
- Joined: Wed Apr 07, 2004 6:00 pm
NFFC Satellite League Results
Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
The beauty of this, Ormond, is that if the back end benefits too much, with KDS you have a chance to request that area next year. BINGO.
The beauty of this, Ormond, is that if the back end benefits too much, with KDS you have a chance to request that area next year. BINGO.
Is my "weekend warrior" prep better than your prep?
-
Gordon Gekko
- Posts: 7222
- Joined: Wed Apr 07, 2004 6:00 pm
NFFC Satellite League Results
Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
You and Nag each have the 12th pick in the WCOFF, so at season's end let me know if 3RR would have benefitted you or not. I'll be interested in your opinion and I trust it will make a good column on your site.
ROFLMAO!!! GA getting a little GG with his comments!!!
You and Nag each have the 12th pick in the WCOFF, so at season's end let me know if 3RR would have benefitted you or not. I'll be interested in your opinion and I trust it will make a good column on your site.
ROFLMAO!!! GA getting a little GG with his comments!!!
Is my "weekend warrior" prep better than your prep?
NFFC Satellite League Results
Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by 4D:
[QUOTE] I'd like to ask one question. What will the results need to be for 3RR to be considered a success? And I don't mean just this year, but over a period of time. What will cause you to say hey, this is the greatest thing since slcied bread? Retention rate is a great measure of whether you have a good product or not. WCOFF knows that and I certainly know that in the NFFC and NFBC. If folks don't come back each year, you know something isn't right with your product.
I track this as closely as I track the signups and I call all past attendees to get their feedback, even if they're not coming back. So I know first-hand what our folks are feeling about our game and I know exactly how many people return each year. In football, we retain around 75% and in baseball it's over 80%, not counting co-managers who split and grab their own teams or add additional teams.
This year folks who can't make it back to the NFFC's live event are telling me their reasons as conflict of schedules, more than anything else. I'm hearing fewer complaints about the larger 14-team format. Next year, hopefully our retention rate will be higher and our growth will continue at its current pace. If it does, 3RR will have a small part in that, along with good customer service, a good stats service, good prizes, fun Draft Day experience, etc. 3RR doesn't have to change the world for us to consider it successful, it just needs to provide a better feeling about where you're drafting from and continue to make the NFFC worth its price point to the folks who play each year.
Why was inventing sliced bread given such prominence anyway?? I mean, how tough was it to invent that?? Sheesh, 3RR is more innovative than cutting a loaf of break, wouldn't you say 4D?? [/QUOTE]Greg, as far as the 14 team format, I'm talking about people that I talk to that give their reason for ot joining as, believe it or not, I do recommend the NFFC to all my friends that play ff. My point was just if you were looking to explode your signups I think that would be a far quicker way than 3RR.
As far as how to consider it a success, it was directed at those supporters other than you. I know why you would do it. But most of those supporting it are of the opinion that Jersey Paul expressed - it mitigates the "advantage" the early (what is it, first, second and third or first and second this year) picks have. So if it doesn't provide at least a close approximation of every pick having the same number of division winners did it work?
As to sliced bread, I agree. If it were any simpler I could have come up with that. I'll still buy bread that I have to slice myself, so what does that tell you?
quote:Originally posted by 4D:
[QUOTE] I'd like to ask one question. What will the results need to be for 3RR to be considered a success? And I don't mean just this year, but over a period of time. What will cause you to say hey, this is the greatest thing since slcied bread? Retention rate is a great measure of whether you have a good product or not. WCOFF knows that and I certainly know that in the NFFC and NFBC. If folks don't come back each year, you know something isn't right with your product.
I track this as closely as I track the signups and I call all past attendees to get their feedback, even if they're not coming back. So I know first-hand what our folks are feeling about our game and I know exactly how many people return each year. In football, we retain around 75% and in baseball it's over 80%, not counting co-managers who split and grab their own teams or add additional teams.
This year folks who can't make it back to the NFFC's live event are telling me their reasons as conflict of schedules, more than anything else. I'm hearing fewer complaints about the larger 14-team format. Next year, hopefully our retention rate will be higher and our growth will continue at its current pace. If it does, 3RR will have a small part in that, along with good customer service, a good stats service, good prizes, fun Draft Day experience, etc. 3RR doesn't have to change the world for us to consider it successful, it just needs to provide a better feeling about where you're drafting from and continue to make the NFFC worth its price point to the folks who play each year.
Why was inventing sliced bread given such prominence anyway??
I mean, how tough was it to invent that?? Sheesh, 3RR is more innovative than cutting a loaf of break, wouldn't you say 4D?? [/QUOTE]Greg, as far as the 14 team format, I'm talking about people that I talk to that give their reason for ot joining as, believe it or not, I do recommend the NFFC to all my friends that play ff. My point was just if you were looking to explode your signups I think that would be a far quicker way than 3RR.As far as how to consider it a success, it was directed at those supporters other than you. I know why you would do it. But most of those supporting it are of the opinion that Jersey Paul expressed - it mitigates the "advantage" the early (what is it, first, second and third or first and second this year) picks have. So if it doesn't provide at least a close approximation of every pick having the same number of division winners did it work?
As to sliced bread, I agree. If it were any simpler I could have come up with that. I'll still buy bread that I have to slice myself, so what does that tell you?
You'll be fine long as your pretty face holds out, then it's gonna get pretty cold out...
NFFC Satellite League Results
Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
My decision to go with 3RR was based on past results in the NFFC over the last three years...Since 2004 NFFC season was OVERWHELMINGLY successful for the bottom and middle slots and not very much for the top 3. [/QUOTE]Facts are extremely important in any argument and this statement here REALLY bothers me. In 2004, we did not allow wild card spots in the Championship Round, so only the top 2 teams in each of our 16 leagues advanced to the $100,000 battle. Of the 32 teams that made it that year, meaning they won the $5,000 h2h title or the $2,500 for second place (most total points), they came from the following draft spots:
1st pick - 2
2nd - 4
3rd - 3
4th - 2
5th - 1
6th - 3
7th - 3
8th - 4
9th - 0
10th - 0
11th - 2
12th - 2
13th - 4
14th - 2
Our regular season champion (TEAM NEW) dominated from the 13th spot that year and our overall champion (Gekko) also drafted from the 13th spot. But as you can see, no area of the draft in 2004 OVERWHELMINGLY dominated as Nag insinuated. It was spread across the board and I was relieved. Now in 2005, the top spots excelled and last year they excelled again.
I don't mind people doubting the benefits of 3RR and if we had 3RR in 2004 it's possible that 18 of the top 32 spots would have been from the bottom of the draft. Well, in 2006 without 3RR it was 18 of the top 32 spots from the top of the draft. So let's give 3RR a chance and go from there. But please let's keep the FACTS straight about the argument. [/QUOTE]Good work. I take back the description of "overwhelmingly".
I will let this topic rest until further notice with the last question and I challenge it to be answered with intellectually honesty. I've asked it before and since we have the FACTS right above us and there's really no place to run from them in this case:
If 2004 season was the year LT2 had the record breaking year instead of 2006 and the final stats from 2006 looked like the ones above, would there have been 3RR in 2007?
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
My decision to go with 3RR was based on past results in the NFFC over the last three years...Since 2004 NFFC season was OVERWHELMINGLY successful for the bottom and middle slots and not very much for the top 3. [/QUOTE]Facts are extremely important in any argument and this statement here REALLY bothers me. In 2004, we did not allow wild card spots in the Championship Round, so only the top 2 teams in each of our 16 leagues advanced to the $100,000 battle. Of the 32 teams that made it that year, meaning they won the $5,000 h2h title or the $2,500 for second place (most total points), they came from the following draft spots:
1st pick - 2
2nd - 4
3rd - 3
4th - 2
5th - 1
6th - 3
7th - 3
8th - 4
9th - 0
10th - 0
11th - 2
12th - 2
13th - 4
14th - 2
Our regular season champion (TEAM NEW) dominated from the 13th spot that year and our overall champion (Gekko) also drafted from the 13th spot. But as you can see, no area of the draft in 2004 OVERWHELMINGLY dominated as Nag insinuated. It was spread across the board and I was relieved. Now in 2005, the top spots excelled and last year they excelled again.
I don't mind people doubting the benefits of 3RR and if we had 3RR in 2004 it's possible that 18 of the top 32 spots would have been from the bottom of the draft. Well, in 2006 without 3RR it was 18 of the top 32 spots from the top of the draft. So let's give 3RR a chance and go from there. But please let's keep the FACTS straight about the argument. [/QUOTE]Good work. I take back the description of "overwhelmingly".
I will let this topic rest until further notice with the last question and I challenge it to be answered with intellectually honesty. I've asked it before and since we have the FACTS right above us and there's really no place to run from them in this case:
If 2004 season was the year LT2 had the record breaking year instead of 2006 and the final stats from 2006 looked like the ones above, would there have been 3RR in 2007?
For Players. By Players.