Originally posted by Renman:
Even if LT is less of what he used to be (and of course that is the case), I believe it can still be enough to produce at a valueable level given how few steady dependable RB's there are in the league now. I guess weeks 6-16 will answer the question... You really can't discount the constant injuries when one of the major theses against him being a top player is that he is injury-prone.
If he can stay healthy for a few games, he could be fantasy-productive, but no more so than plenty of guys who were taken in later rounds who now have an opportunity. Thus, even if healthy, he now is a Cadillac, a Jon Stewart, a Sproles or a Felix Jones ... at best.
Those who drafted him in rd 1-2 are clinging to a dream.
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Tom Kessenich
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- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
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I'd say it's something like
10% line injuries
5% ankle injury
85% LT
10% line injuries
5% ankle injury
85% LT
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
OK What did You miss on or mess up on?
Tom,
You may be right. However I can easily see a 75 per week rushing, 3 for 30 per week receiving, and a decent number of conversions from the goaline type of player given the schedule and kind of offense he is in. That adds up to 15+ points per week.. How many RB's will average 15 per week? Not many.
We shall see...
You may be right. However I can easily see a 75 per week rushing, 3 for 30 per week receiving, and a decent number of conversions from the goaline type of player given the schedule and kind of offense he is in. That adds up to 15+ points per week.. How many RB's will average 15 per week? Not many.
We shall see...
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Tom Kessenich
- Posts: 30097
- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
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I think there's a better chance of LT finishing in the 25-30 range among RBs than the Top 15. I just see nothing there to get excited about with him. He looks done, the offensive line is in shambles and the team has had major issues in the Red Zone. That's a bad situation.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
OK What did You miss on or mess up on?
Tom,
I hope you are wrong, and if you are counting the entire season (where he missed the first month) then of course he will be in the 20-30 range. But fantasy football is all about what is going to happen in the future... and as of now, the future for LT starts in week 6. I believe he will show he has enough left to be a top 10 producing RB from week 6 on assuming no more injuries that any RB could get.
I agree the team has obvious problems that have nothing to do with LT, most of which are connected to a crippled offensive line. I know you said you own him.. I own him in two leagues. Lets hope for the best.
I hope you are wrong, and if you are counting the entire season (where he missed the first month) then of course he will be in the 20-30 range. But fantasy football is all about what is going to happen in the future... and as of now, the future for LT starts in week 6. I believe he will show he has enough left to be a top 10 producing RB from week 6 on assuming no more injuries that any RB could get.
I agree the team has obvious problems that have nothing to do with LT, most of which are connected to a crippled offensive line. I know you said you own him.. I own him in two leagues. Lets hope for the best.
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williamhare
- Posts: 462
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just joined... so Ren do you like LT ?
HMan
HMan
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hman83,
Like him as a person? Admire his career? Like him for the remainder of the season? I do not have overly strong feelings about LT one way or the other. I had him in 2004 and road him to a league title and haven't had him since. This year I have him on two teams, but have good RB depth on both so have kept my head above water without any production from him. I only entered the discussion when seeing some people talking about how right they were on LT and basing it on him getting an injury that any 24 year old RB could have gotten. I simply disagreed with that logic.
I just enjoy debate on the topic. I agree he has lost a step as compared to when he was arguably the greatest fantasy player of all time. I just think he has enough left now talent wise to be a productive player and that people too easily snap judge his value based on a run of normal RB injuries that lead to some lesser production combined with some sideline body language.
Obviously I am in the minority on this by a mile. I will be interested to see if anyone comments if LT starts producing and producing well.
Like him as a person? Admire his career? Like him for the remainder of the season? I do not have overly strong feelings about LT one way or the other. I had him in 2004 and road him to a league title and haven't had him since. This year I have him on two teams, but have good RB depth on both so have kept my head above water without any production from him. I only entered the discussion when seeing some people talking about how right they were on LT and basing it on him getting an injury that any 24 year old RB could have gotten. I simply disagreed with that logic.
I just enjoy debate on the topic. I agree he has lost a step as compared to when he was arguably the greatest fantasy player of all time. I just think he has enough left now talent wise to be a productive player and that people too easily snap judge his value based on a run of normal RB injuries that lead to some lesser production combined with some sideline body language.
Obviously I am in the minority on this by a mile. I will be interested to see if anyone comments if LT starts producing and producing well.
OK What did You miss on or mess up on?
FWIW ren, I agree with you. And only the day before the draft did we decide to take Randy Moss 4th in Primetime instead of LT.
OK What did You miss on or mess up on?
Originally posted by Renman:
hman83,
Like him as a person? Admire his career? Like him for the remainder of the season? I do not have overly strong feelings about LT one way or the other. I had him in 2004 and road him to a league title and haven't had him since. This year I have him on two teams, but have good RB depth on both so have kept my head above water without any production from him. I only entered the discussion when seeing some people talking about how right they were on LT and basing it on him getting an injury that any 24 year old RB could have gotten. I simply disagreed with that logic.
I just enjoy debate on the topic. I agree he has lost a step as compared to when he was arguably the greatest fantasy player of all time. I just think he has enough left now talent wise to be a productive player and that people too easily snap judge his value based on a run of normal RB injuries that lead to some lesser production combined with some sideline body language.
Obviously I am in the minority on this by a mile. I will be interested to see if anyone comments if LT starts producing and producing well. As usual you ignore what people are posting to state what you think they are saying. Many people are basing their opinion on LT and how he would do this year on a lot of red flags heading into the season, not LT's injury this year. He has been heading down this road for a while now. This injury is just the latest in a series. At his age he is certainly prone to break down and take longer to recover. It happens. And while it can happen to anyone we're not talking about anyone, we're talking about LT. Though some of the rbs you are comparing him to are ridiculous and make the point as to how far he has fallen.
He has had injuries the last two years. At his age coming back gets harder and the cumulative effect takes its toll. He has already missed twice the number of regular season games this year as he had in his career. His body is breaking down. It happens when you have as many carries as he has.
Sproles was franchised. While not the prototypical back, he was franchised. Those experts must have seen something in him.
The o-line sucked last year. It didn't change this year.
This is Rivers team now, and they are a pass-first offense. It's not a good sign that in the two games you played in you have 2 catches for ZERO yards in a passing offense. Sproles is clearly the back of choice for receptions.
With their defensive problems and liking Sproles better as the receiving back it won't give LT the time and carries needed to produce at a high level. Between Gates, Jackson and Floyd I wonder where LT sits as the goal line option. Number 1? Hmmm
Those experts that you claim know so much were ready to release LT if he didn't restructure his contract and take a pay cut.
He's just not the same back anymore, and there were a lot of people that stayed away BEFORE the season started. The evidence going into this season pointed to way too much risk of further breakdown rather than returning to form. So stop saying it has anything to do with his injury game one. I see you've already gone from top 5 for the rest of the year to top 10. Keep going and you'll get to where he will finish.
hman83,
Like him as a person? Admire his career? Like him for the remainder of the season? I do not have overly strong feelings about LT one way or the other. I had him in 2004 and road him to a league title and haven't had him since. This year I have him on two teams, but have good RB depth on both so have kept my head above water without any production from him. I only entered the discussion when seeing some people talking about how right they were on LT and basing it on him getting an injury that any 24 year old RB could have gotten. I simply disagreed with that logic.
I just enjoy debate on the topic. I agree he has lost a step as compared to when he was arguably the greatest fantasy player of all time. I just think he has enough left now talent wise to be a productive player and that people too easily snap judge his value based on a run of normal RB injuries that lead to some lesser production combined with some sideline body language.
Obviously I am in the minority on this by a mile. I will be interested to see if anyone comments if LT starts producing and producing well. As usual you ignore what people are posting to state what you think they are saying. Many people are basing their opinion on LT and how he would do this year on a lot of red flags heading into the season, not LT's injury this year. He has been heading down this road for a while now. This injury is just the latest in a series. At his age he is certainly prone to break down and take longer to recover. It happens. And while it can happen to anyone we're not talking about anyone, we're talking about LT. Though some of the rbs you are comparing him to are ridiculous and make the point as to how far he has fallen.
He has had injuries the last two years. At his age coming back gets harder and the cumulative effect takes its toll. He has already missed twice the number of regular season games this year as he had in his career. His body is breaking down. It happens when you have as many carries as he has.
Sproles was franchised. While not the prototypical back, he was franchised. Those experts must have seen something in him.
The o-line sucked last year. It didn't change this year.
This is Rivers team now, and they are a pass-first offense. It's not a good sign that in the two games you played in you have 2 catches for ZERO yards in a passing offense. Sproles is clearly the back of choice for receptions.
With their defensive problems and liking Sproles better as the receiving back it won't give LT the time and carries needed to produce at a high level. Between Gates, Jackson and Floyd I wonder where LT sits as the goal line option. Number 1? Hmmm
Those experts that you claim know so much were ready to release LT if he didn't restructure his contract and take a pay cut.
He's just not the same back anymore, and there were a lot of people that stayed away BEFORE the season started. The evidence going into this season pointed to way too much risk of further breakdown rather than returning to form. So stop saying it has anything to do with his injury game one. I see you've already gone from top 5 for the rest of the year to top 10. Keep going and you'll get to where he will finish.
You'll be fine long as your pretty face holds out, then it's gonna get pretty cold out...
OK What did You miss on or mess up on?
4D,
LT went in the first round in just about every single fantasy football draft that existed this year. What "red flags" are we talking about that made him such the obvious player to avoid? If anyone is struggling to see what someone else is saying it is you. People here seem to be making up that I think LT is still a stud. I don't have strong feelings about LT one way or the other. I also, in numerous posts have shown I am not talking about JUST this one injury in week one. I have said in numerous post here that LAST YEAR he struggled all the way down to being the 7th rated RB in fantasy due to a series of STANDARD injuries any, if not all, RB's get regardless of age.
In my opinion, the typical fan sees that, connects his age to the equation, and then repeats what the standard media fueled assumption is on the player (kind of like how Mendenhall is a bust and didn't know the playbook last week). My point is that we typical fans do not have the access to information that the NFL player evaluation EXPERTS have whose careers depend on these decisions. That is not to say they are never wrong, but they know a whole lot more than joe fan does watching at home on tv. If they thought LT had enough left to be their feature back I tend to lean toward buying into their logic more than fans who judge his sideline body language or think that he verbally just convinced these guys to ride him at RB (with no viable backup) on a win now team.
The RB's I compared the SITUATION TO (I never compared LT to them) are younger RB's who had the same type standard injuries that all RB's often get regardless of age. Had LT been out with groins and hammys or had his quad locked up like it did for Barber (without contact) then you would be 100% in the right to say "hey, this is evidence that LT is breaking down and finished..." My POINT was any RB at any age can sprain and ankle or knee and I gave examples from this month. It is an accurate point that can't be argued.
The rest of your email pretty much states things we all know. Of course his offensive line is poor. Of course the team has other weapons. Of course Sproles is there (and regularly proves he is nothing more than a scat back who works well in space and return specialist). They don't like "sproles better." If they did LT would be playing for another team. San Diego has been a poor red zone team partly due to the fact the Gates, Jackson, Sproles and Floyd of been the options for a while.
Your last paragraph again states what I have said repeatedly. When have I said he is the "same back" as before? Of course he has lost a step, probably several. My singular point regarding THIS year is that this ONE INJURY in this ONE GAME isn't enough to prove anyone was right that LT is "done" even though they pound their chests touting their fantasy football genius for getting that one right.
This is what makes fantasy football fun. This what makes discussing or debating fantasy football fun. I don't see why we can't talk about this or other issues without it staying friendly either. Someone will be right on LT this year and someone will be wrong. What has happened so far THIS YEAR hasn't proven anything yet regarding LT.
[ October 07, 2009, 09:47 AM: Message edited by: Renman ]
LT went in the first round in just about every single fantasy football draft that existed this year. What "red flags" are we talking about that made him such the obvious player to avoid? If anyone is struggling to see what someone else is saying it is you. People here seem to be making up that I think LT is still a stud. I don't have strong feelings about LT one way or the other. I also, in numerous posts have shown I am not talking about JUST this one injury in week one. I have said in numerous post here that LAST YEAR he struggled all the way down to being the 7th rated RB in fantasy due to a series of STANDARD injuries any, if not all, RB's get regardless of age.
In my opinion, the typical fan sees that, connects his age to the equation, and then repeats what the standard media fueled assumption is on the player (kind of like how Mendenhall is a bust and didn't know the playbook last week). My point is that we typical fans do not have the access to information that the NFL player evaluation EXPERTS have whose careers depend on these decisions. That is not to say they are never wrong, but they know a whole lot more than joe fan does watching at home on tv. If they thought LT had enough left to be their feature back I tend to lean toward buying into their logic more than fans who judge his sideline body language or think that he verbally just convinced these guys to ride him at RB (with no viable backup) on a win now team.
The RB's I compared the SITUATION TO (I never compared LT to them) are younger RB's who had the same type standard injuries that all RB's often get regardless of age. Had LT been out with groins and hammys or had his quad locked up like it did for Barber (without contact) then you would be 100% in the right to say "hey, this is evidence that LT is breaking down and finished..." My POINT was any RB at any age can sprain and ankle or knee and I gave examples from this month. It is an accurate point that can't be argued.
The rest of your email pretty much states things we all know. Of course his offensive line is poor. Of course the team has other weapons. Of course Sproles is there (and regularly proves he is nothing more than a scat back who works well in space and return specialist). They don't like "sproles better." If they did LT would be playing for another team. San Diego has been a poor red zone team partly due to the fact the Gates, Jackson, Sproles and Floyd of been the options for a while.
Your last paragraph again states what I have said repeatedly. When have I said he is the "same back" as before? Of course he has lost a step, probably several. My singular point regarding THIS year is that this ONE INJURY in this ONE GAME isn't enough to prove anyone was right that LT is "done" even though they pound their chests touting their fantasy football genius for getting that one right.
This is what makes fantasy football fun. This what makes discussing or debating fantasy football fun. I don't see why we can't talk about this or other issues without it staying friendly either. Someone will be right on LT this year and someone will be wrong. What has happened so far THIS YEAR hasn't proven anything yet regarding LT.
[ October 07, 2009, 09:47 AM: Message edited by: Renman ]