2005 NFFC Regular Season Facts

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by Dyv:
Greg, give us the reason why NOT to have a league playoff? I'm curious why you are opposed to the idea because I can't think of anything negative. I know you're impressed by someone going 12-1 but I'm not at all... I'm far more impressed by Team NEW's huge points than by someone else who got lucky enough to catch people on bye weeks or injuries, etc. What is so impressive about going 12-1 ? or 11-2 and putting up 30th place points in doing so? I don't get it... ?

Edumacate me?

Dyv Okay, Dyv, this is really an easy answer for me. Bottom line is that I believe the h2h champion shows the more consistent team and beating 13 other league competitors deserves the top prize. I put a large emphasis on total points in the overall contest as the majority of our total payout goes to the top point getters.

As for the leagues, I believe we can determine the top 2 teams during the regular season and leave the playoffs for the grand prize. Adding a 1-week or 3-week playoff to determine who was better during the regular season (h2h or total points) only proves who was the best team during that playoff run.

It's okay for us to agree to disagree on this philosophical point: Who was the best league team, the h2h champion or the total points champion? But honestly, a team with the most points could benefit from some HUGE weeks, while the h2h champion could benefit from some favorable matchups. Each has its flaws.

I'm going to pick Gordon Gekko's Las Vegas League 3 team to prove the good and bad of both sides. Gordon's Teenage Wasteland team won $1,500 for finishing with the most points, 1877.05. He finished 9-4 by winning his last 5 games (4-4 at one point) as admittedly he made some solid in-season free agent pickups. C.C's Desperados won $5,000 by finishing tied for first place at 10-3, winning the tie-breaker with 1,772.65 points. So Gordon had 104.4 more points, but won $3,500 less.

Now realize that GG scored 1,006.2 points during his last 6 games, including the high point total of 203.05 in Week 10. He went 5-1 during that stretch, losing a tough matchup in Week 8. C.C.'s Desperados, on the other hand, went 6-0 and scored 891.1 points during that time. So over the last 6 weeks of the 13-week schedule, GG outscored CC by 105.1 points, the difference in their overall total, but lost one game in the standings.

Was Teenage Wasteland the best team over the entire season? Possibly. Or was it the hottest team over the last 6 weeks, thus covering a poor start? Possibly. He did post a 90.5 and a 109.2 (both losses) early in the year, but to his credit he did not earn one easy matchup win and suffered one tough loss based on matchup. C.C.'s Desperados, on the other hand, had four games where they scored under 110 points and won two of those.

My solution next year is to pay more to the total points winner, while you are calling for a playoff to determine the difference between these two teams. It's a philosophical difference. My feeling is that Gordon has a head-start in the overall contest now, albeit only an 8 point advantage over C.C.'s Desperados, where $100,000 can be won.

You like to reward total points only. I want to reward both without a playoff. I'll listen to the masses if the call goes out for a change.

[JerseyPaul]

CHANGE

Tastes great or Less Filling?

We could argue until the cows come home. Both points of view have merit.

There is no downside to a playoff if the honors are split.

Honestly, Greg, I think your unyielding position that h2h is a far better indication of merit (5 to 1.5) has more to do with some experience in your fantasy competition past than a logical conclusion based on fact. I say that because there is no logical way to break that conundrum. Both methods have merit.

104 points is not 1 hot game. 104 points represents a full week's score for many teams. 104 points does show a superior season, yet that team came in 2nd. If h2h is a better measure, why not show it in a playoff? Should have no fear.

Again, only if the honors are split.

I'm completely puzzled why this is even an issue. It seems totally fair.

[Dyv]

Greg I think the fundamental difference we have is that you're viewing the league cash as a 'reward the league' type format whereas I'm trying to see it as a 'get 2 good candidates for the final playoffs'... I don't mind disagreeing on the notion - I'll play next year regardless

Still, I can't shake this feeling that one of these times there will be a league with 6 teams at 7-6 and one team at 8-5 and that 8-5 will have scored far less points than most of the 7-6 teams and win $5,000. I appreciate that it's a consistency award but then it could be better done with AllPlay. I appreciate we want the trash talk, so it could be mitigated with Play2. It's probably not an issue 90-95% of the time, but statistics being statistics, over a long period of time the exception WILL occur. Now, what are the odds it will happen and then what are the odds it would happen to ME? Not very likely, but man... I put myself in different shoes and those are a pair of loafers that just feel awful.

My team was very sporadic this year as well

It's probably the 'build a better mousetrap' feeling... but then you balance that with making the game 'what mom used to bake' and I understand it's not a slam dunk.

I don't envy your job, but just knowing I'm being heard and you're considering everything is enough for me. Going into the year we have the same chances so there is a certain amount of "Zola" fairness in that notion that I can accept.

Appreciate you taking the time to answer

(Slightly less) Grump Dyv

[ December 08, 2004, 11:15 AM: Message edited by: Dyv ]

[Gordon Gekko]

Originally posted by JerseyPaul:
There is no downside to a playoff if the honors are split. downside greg?

[Gordon Gekko]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Without the playoff format 11 of 16 leagues had the h2h champion also finish with the most league points. To me, that suggests that a playoff isn't needed. how many of those were decided on the last weekend or night? my guess is a couple. in any event, 11/16 = less than 70% success rate. is that good enough? there is no downside for a three-week playoff. since you can argue the best record is the best team, and i can argue the most points is the best team, let's settle it on the field, not by who your opponent was. thanks.

[What's the rumpus?]

I wonder how many times Greg has typed "If you don't like it, start your own f*%#$^& contest," only to delete it.

[JerseyPaul]

Originally posted by What's the rumpus?:
I wonder how many times Greg has typed "If you don't like it, start your own f*%#$^& contest," only to delete it.

[JerseyPaul]

By the way...in NY Auction

I beat the best record team in my Division (10-3) by 208 points. I have most points but 9-4 after losing 3 games by a point or less. He gets the bye and I'm playing in a game that if I lose, I get zilch for the season.

Clearly no Divisions next year and best record and next best points get the byes.

[ December 08, 2004, 07:39 PM: Message edited by: JerseyPaul ]

[Gordon Gekko]

Originally posted by What's the rumpus?:
I wonder how many times Greg has typed "If you don't like it, start your own f*%#$^& contest," only to delete it. that's okay baby...this is america. freedom of speech.

[Ted_Kasten]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
I don't have the time to match up common players with playoff teams, but I'd love it if someone could do that. I do! I am currently working on an in-depth analysis of what worked and what didn't work in the NFFC, including the effect of draft position, player selection, draft strategy, injuries, FAAB, etc. This is going to take a few days...but I will try to answer tonight a few of the questions already posted.

It's interesting that Priest Holmes isn't on a single playoff team, but how many playoff teams have Tiki Barber, Reuben Droughns, Brandon Stokeley and some of those sleepers?

Tiki - on 5 Playoff Teams
Javon Walker - on 5 Playoff Teams
Droughns - on 4 Playoff Teams
Stokley - on 4 Playoff Teams


Interestingly enough Edgerrin James and Donald Driver are on the most playoff teams (7). LT and Curtis Martin are on 6 playoff teams. Peyton Manning is only on 3 playoff teams, which is only slightly less amazing (to me) than the complete absence of Priest Holmes. Obviously Priest has been injured, but Jamal Lewis has been out at least as much if not more and was far less spectacular than Holmes when he was playing (Jamal Lewis is on 2 playoff rosters). I believe Holmes is the only player with a first round ADP to not make the playoffs on a single roster.


Injuries to your first and second round picks will KILL any fantasy team, no matter where you draft from. But this data certainly proves that you can win from any draft position and that you MUST add to your team with in-season pickups to beat the best of the best.

Yep. I'll address these issues later...

This data also proves to me that random draft selection and random h2h matchups need to stay in the NFFC for 2005. The system isn't broken yet. Yes, we can improve on it and I will be open-minded to doing that, but I feel like we've built something special this year and continuing to grow using a familiar format is the way to go in 2005. I'm going to grow realistically this next year and let the Million Dollar fantasy games come and go once again, while we deliver what we promise. [/quote]

I couldn't agree with you more. Don't change the draft selection or h2h aspect of the league. If h2h is taken out a lot of the week-to-week excitement and Monday night drama is taken out of the league. Other than giving out $100k to everyone in the league, I wouldn't change a thing! Great job Greg, Tom, KP, Stats and the entire NFFC team!

I am already looking forward to 2005!

-Ted