Wayne, you're such a "Colts Fan".
I resemble that remark! Just for the record though, I do have Clark and Wayne much lower than Tom!
Wayne
Preliminary 2011 Football Rankings
Preliminary 2011 Football Rankings
Originally posted by KyThunder:
Wayne, you're such a "Colts Fan". I resemble that remark!
Just for the record though, I do have Clark and Wayne much lower than Tom!
Wayne
Wayne, you're such a "Colts Fan".
I resemble that remark! Just for the record though, I do have Clark and Wayne much lower than Tom!
Wayne
Preliminary 2011 Football Rankings
It's obvious to me that Tom likes the way Hines dances the Foxtrot.
1PPR, I have McCoy and Charles higher this year!
1PPR, I have McCoy and Charles higher this year!
2008- Didn't finish last overall in the Classic.
2009- Didn't finish last overall in the Classic or Primetime.
2009- Didn't finish last overall in the Classic or Primetime.
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boutrous11
- Posts: 1573
- Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:00 pm
Preliminary 2011 Football Rankings
Wayne, every time you post about how much you like Collie, you raise his ADP 3 slots.
(Unless this is a smokescreen, in that case you are a genius.)
(Unless this is a smokescreen, in that case you are a genius.)
Preliminary 2011 Football Rankings
Originally posted by Coltsfan:
For instance, Reggie Wayne is way to high at #5.
. In regards to Collie, I sincerely hope that everyone out there completely buys into your ranking of him this year! My favorite fantasy football site did have him ranked at WR5 this year and I didn't see that until yesterday so it was nice to get another confirmation.
Wayne The good news is that site has Collie at #5....the bad news is they have Wayne at #4...
As far as the rankings.....as stated, it's early and they will probably change quite a bit based on a number of factors; but I'd love it if they were close to being right. I'd really like the team I could construct based ob these rankings.
Although you have Vick ranked more conservatively than most will, imo it's still too high. He needs a lot in the rushing game to justify even a #4 ranking....but if he runs around a lot he'll most likely get injured and miss time. Many will have Freeman ranked even higher than you, but he ranked 17th overall on a ppg basis last year and based on a tougher schedule I believe he'll be hard pressed to even equal last year's numbers. You have Palmer ranked higher than he ended up last year and there's a high liklihood he doesn't play. I'd have Fitzpatrick in the mid teens and I'd lovbe to see Orton end up in Arizona.
Imo, Charles will be the most over hyped and drafted RB this year. KC's schedule (out of division) is brutal this year. They had a "cupcake" schedule last year and Charles feasted on it.....ain't happening this year. Assuming he stays healthy he'll probably average 14-15 ppg, but those expecting around 20 will be disappointed. Turner....stick a fork in him, he's done. Sometghing's wrong with the Stewart/D Will rankings. I guess these rankings assume D Will leaves Carolina....if that's the case I'd have him higher than 19. And even if D Will does leave I don't see Stewart ending uop as RB #13. After D Will went down last year Stewart averaged less than 10 ppg. What's changing in Carolina this year? Can't Newton might end up as the starting QB....boy that's a disaster in the making. Mathews or Best and maybe both of them will end up much higher than thesze ranlings. Benson.....he's another one...stick a fork i n him. Starks....I don't see it. If P Thomas is healthy he'll be much higher than #28...if he isn't he'll be much lower. If Mathews stays healthy Tolbert won't be in the top 30.
I agree with Wayne on Wayne....this is the year he starts to drop. No way Bowe is top 10 again. He had 15 TD's on 72 receptions last year and averaged over 16 ypc. The average for WR's is a TD every 9+ receptions; Bowe averaged one every 4.8 last year. Even assuming it goes down to one every 7 receptions and keeping his reception total steady he'll only get 10 TD's this year. (If it goes to 9 he'll only get 8 TD's) Prior to last year Bowe's career average per receptiom was 12.5., not close to the 16+ he averaged last year. Factoring in all this and the fact that like Charles he'll be facing a much tougher schedule , I can't see Bowe being much more than a low end #2 WR. Colston, I hope you're right, I have him in a $1250 dynasty league, but I don't see it. If Kitna was still starting for Dallas I wouldn't have as much problem with your Bryant/Austin ranking, but with Romo coming back I'd reverse those rankings and probably drop Bryant down into the 20's. M Williams, Seattle....you have to be kidding. . I'd have a much different rankings once we get into the 20's and below. I also wouldn't have the Jackson''s...Desean and Vincent nearly as high as you do.
I'd probably have most of your top 10 TE's in my top 10 just in a different order. Can't see Olson being #11 in Martz's system. .I'd move Celek up a bit and I'd move Watson into the top 15, especially if McCoy starts.
K's and D's are spot on. :rolleyes:
.
For instance, Reggie Wayne is way to high at #5.
. In regards to Collie, I sincerely hope that everyone out there completely buys into your ranking of him this year! My favorite fantasy football site did have him ranked at WR5 this year and I didn't see that until yesterday so it was nice to get another confirmation.
Wayne The good news is that site has Collie at #5....the bad news is they have Wayne at #4...
As far as the rankings.....as stated, it's early and they will probably change quite a bit based on a number of factors; but I'd love it if they were close to being right. I'd really like the team I could construct based ob these rankings.
Although you have Vick ranked more conservatively than most will, imo it's still too high. He needs a lot in the rushing game to justify even a #4 ranking....but if he runs around a lot he'll most likely get injured and miss time. Many will have Freeman ranked even higher than you, but he ranked 17th overall on a ppg basis last year and based on a tougher schedule I believe he'll be hard pressed to even equal last year's numbers. You have Palmer ranked higher than he ended up last year and there's a high liklihood he doesn't play. I'd have Fitzpatrick in the mid teens and I'd lovbe to see Orton end up in Arizona.
Imo, Charles will be the most over hyped and drafted RB this year. KC's schedule (out of division) is brutal this year. They had a "cupcake" schedule last year and Charles feasted on it.....ain't happening this year. Assuming he stays healthy he'll probably average 14-15 ppg, but those expecting around 20 will be disappointed. Turner....stick a fork in him, he's done. Sometghing's wrong with the Stewart/D Will rankings. I guess these rankings assume D Will leaves Carolina....if that's the case I'd have him higher than 19. And even if D Will does leave I don't see Stewart ending uop as RB #13. After D Will went down last year Stewart averaged less than 10 ppg. What's changing in Carolina this year? Can't Newton might end up as the starting QB....boy that's a disaster in the making. Mathews or Best and maybe both of them will end up much higher than thesze ranlings. Benson.....he's another one...stick a fork i n him. Starks....I don't see it. If P Thomas is healthy he'll be much higher than #28...if he isn't he'll be much lower. If Mathews stays healthy Tolbert won't be in the top 30.
I agree with Wayne on Wayne....this is the year he starts to drop. No way Bowe is top 10 again. He had 15 TD's on 72 receptions last year and averaged over 16 ypc. The average for WR's is a TD every 9+ receptions; Bowe averaged one every 4.8 last year. Even assuming it goes down to one every 7 receptions and keeping his reception total steady he'll only get 10 TD's this year. (If it goes to 9 he'll only get 8 TD's) Prior to last year Bowe's career average per receptiom was 12.5., not close to the 16+ he averaged last year. Factoring in all this and the fact that like Charles he'll be facing a much tougher schedule , I can't see Bowe being much more than a low end #2 WR. Colston, I hope you're right, I have him in a $1250 dynasty league, but I don't see it. If Kitna was still starting for Dallas I wouldn't have as much problem with your Bryant/Austin ranking, but with Romo coming back I'd reverse those rankings and probably drop Bryant down into the 20's. M Williams, Seattle....you have to be kidding. . I'd have a much different rankings once we get into the 20's and below. I also wouldn't have the Jackson''s...Desean and Vincent nearly as high as you do.
I'd probably have most of your top 10 TE's in my top 10 just in a different order. Can't see Olson being #11 in Martz's system. .I'd move Celek up a bit and I'd move Watson into the top 15, especially if McCoy starts.
K's and D's are spot on. :rolleyes:
.
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Tom Kessenich
- Posts: 29849
- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
Preliminary 2011 Football Rankings
As I have said, I put these out for discussion purposes. They should not be viewed as being "right" or even how I would use them if I was drafting at this very moment. I just wanted to get the ball rolling as far as talking about where players should be ranked this season.
But if I had to construct a team based on these rankings I feel very confident I could put together a very good one for what it's worth.
To address some of the other points:
I just can't see ranking Collie Top 10 when there are so many other talented options in that passing game. Plus, his durability has to be taken into consideration in my opinion based on what transpired last season.
As far as Wayne, people have speculated he would begin to decline seemingly every year in the past couple and it hasn't happened yet. Maybe 2011 is the year. Maybe not. But after 111 receptions and the other numbers I posted, there's certainly strong reason to believe he'll be a top WR1 again.
With regard to the RBs:
Charles - I think he is a major talent and if Jones' role declines as expected he could be poised for a big season. I think he's a legit stud RB1.
I'm a huge Jonathan Stewart fan. He closed out 2010 in strong fashion as the starter, topping 70 yards rushing in five of his final six games, including four games of 90 yards or more. I think he's a stud talent and with Williams gone he has Top 10 potential in my opinion. I love JStew for 2011 and will be hyping him heavily. Get used to that.
Mathews and Best could definitely rise before the season begins. I think both are major talents. Mathews, though, will have to contend with Tolbert and Tolbert's a solid RB in his own right. I don't see any serious threats to Best as long as he stays healthy.
I'm not entirely sold on Starks but the early word out of Green Bay is that the job is his if he can take it. But I would not be surprised to see Grant regain the job or pose a serious challenge. That backfield situation is far from being settled.
I'm a big Pierre Thomas fan but he needs to find a new home. Once we see where he ends up, his ranking will become much clearer.
Bowe may not catch the TDs again but Cassel improved as the season went along and Bowe is clearly the No. 1 WR in KC. Plus, he's a big-time talent. I've always liked him and I think his best is yet to come.
I'm a huge Miles Austin fan but I think Bryant is the more talented WR. If he can stay healthy and stay out of trouble I could see him being a Top 10 WR. I love Austin but I view him as the 1B there to Bryant's 1A.
I've talked about Big Mike and he's someone I expect to lower. But he is their No. 1 WR and proved he could be a very valuable option in PPR formats. So I wouldn't expect to drop him too far.
I'm big on DeSean Jackson as I said before and Vincent Jackson is a proven WR1 playing with one of the elite QBs in the league. A full season from Vincent Jackson with Rivers should enable him to regain his prior standing. I see no reason to believe otherwise at this point.
As far as TEs, I agree about Olsen dropping and he will. I like Celek but he and Vick were not on the same page at all last season so he's a major concern. Watson was a surprising option but I think there are better TEs in that range which is why he's lower despite his potential to be a nice TE2.
But if I had to construct a team based on these rankings I feel very confident I could put together a very good one for what it's worth.
To address some of the other points:
I just can't see ranking Collie Top 10 when there are so many other talented options in that passing game. Plus, his durability has to be taken into consideration in my opinion based on what transpired last season.
As far as Wayne, people have speculated he would begin to decline seemingly every year in the past couple and it hasn't happened yet. Maybe 2011 is the year. Maybe not. But after 111 receptions and the other numbers I posted, there's certainly strong reason to believe he'll be a top WR1 again.
With regard to the RBs:
Charles - I think he is a major talent and if Jones' role declines as expected he could be poised for a big season. I think he's a legit stud RB1.
I'm a huge Jonathan Stewart fan. He closed out 2010 in strong fashion as the starter, topping 70 yards rushing in five of his final six games, including four games of 90 yards or more. I think he's a stud talent and with Williams gone he has Top 10 potential in my opinion. I love JStew for 2011 and will be hyping him heavily. Get used to that.
Mathews and Best could definitely rise before the season begins. I think both are major talents. Mathews, though, will have to contend with Tolbert and Tolbert's a solid RB in his own right. I don't see any serious threats to Best as long as he stays healthy.
I'm not entirely sold on Starks but the early word out of Green Bay is that the job is his if he can take it. But I would not be surprised to see Grant regain the job or pose a serious challenge. That backfield situation is far from being settled.
I'm a big Pierre Thomas fan but he needs to find a new home. Once we see where he ends up, his ranking will become much clearer.
Bowe may not catch the TDs again but Cassel improved as the season went along and Bowe is clearly the No. 1 WR in KC. Plus, he's a big-time talent. I've always liked him and I think his best is yet to come.
I'm a huge Miles Austin fan but I think Bryant is the more talented WR. If he can stay healthy and stay out of trouble I could see him being a Top 10 WR. I love Austin but I view him as the 1B there to Bryant's 1A.
I've talked about Big Mike and he's someone I expect to lower. But he is their No. 1 WR and proved he could be a very valuable option in PPR formats. So I wouldn't expect to drop him too far.
I'm big on DeSean Jackson as I said before and Vincent Jackson is a proven WR1 playing with one of the elite QBs in the league. A full season from Vincent Jackson with Rivers should enable him to regain his prior standing. I see no reason to believe otherwise at this point.
As far as TEs, I agree about Olsen dropping and he will. I like Celek but he and Vick were not on the same page at all last season so he's a major concern. Watson was a surprising option but I think there are better TEs in that range which is why he's lower despite his potential to be a nice TE2.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Preliminary 2011 Football Rankings
Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
[QB:
I just can't see ranking Collie Top 10 when there are so many other talented options in that passing game..
With regard to the RBs:
I'm a huge Jonathan Stewart fan. He closed out 2010 in strong fashion as the starter, topping 70 yards rushing in five of his final six games, including four games of 90 yards or more. I think he's a stud talent and with Williams gone he has Top 10 potential in my opinion. I love JStew for 2011 and will be hyping him heavily. Get used to that.
I'm a big Pierre Thomas fan but he needs to find a new home. Once we see where he ends up, his ranking will become much clearer.
Bowe may not catch the TDs again but Cassel improved as the season went along and Bowe is clearly the No. 1 WR in KC. Plus, he's a big-time talent. I've always liked him and I think his best is yet to come.
I'm a huge Miles Austin fan but I think Bryant is the more talented WR. If he can stay healthy and stay out of trouble I could see him being a Top 10 WR. I love Austin but I view him as the 1B there to Bryant's 1A.
I'm big on DeSean Jackson as I said before and Vincent Jackson is a proven WR1 playing with one of the elite QBs in the league. A full season from Vincent Jackson with Rivers should enable him to regain his prior standing. I see no reason to believe otherwise at this point.
. [/QB]I agree that Collie isn't a top 10 WR.....I'd have him in the low teens.
After D Will went down Stewart averaged less than 10 ppg. Over the last 6 games he averaged 11 ppg. Although I agree he is a quality RB....that team SUCKS and I can't see it improving enough around him to justify a high ranking. And Carolina's schedule is tougher this year than it was last year. He'd need to average over 15 ppg to justify your ranking.....considering he doesn't do anything ib the passing game he'll need to score around 12 TD's and average close to 100 ypg to get there.....don't see it.
Pierre Thomas signed a 4 year contract with New Orleans last month....so he'll be staying there, at least this year
Although I agree Bowe is KC's #1 Wr, without the TD's and high ypc, I can't see him getting much more than 220-230 fantasy points, which would make him a low end #2 WR.
In the games Romo started and completed last year Austin averaged 19 ppg. In the games Kitna started Austin averaged around 11 ppg. Austin and Kitna were clearly not on the same page and showed very little chemistry. Conversely Kitna locked onto Bryant and was clearly comfortable throwing to him. Whether that was because he got a lot of work with Bryant in TC and not much with Austin....or for some othewr reason, I'm not sure. Bryant was Kitna favored receiver. And I agree Bryant is a big time talent and if he can get his" jewelry purchases" in order he may mature into quality #1 WR. But, imo, at best that is a year or two away; this year at least I still see Austin as Dallas's #1 WR
In 6 years in V Jax's best year, he averaged less than 15 ppg, which would make hi m a low end #2 WR. Could he improve wildly on his previous best year to become a #1 FF Wr.....I suppose but I wouldn't count on it. D Jax regressed with Vick at QB....not sure we'll see a vast improvement this year. .
[QB:
I just can't see ranking Collie Top 10 when there are so many other talented options in that passing game..
With regard to the RBs:
I'm a huge Jonathan Stewart fan. He closed out 2010 in strong fashion as the starter, topping 70 yards rushing in five of his final six games, including four games of 90 yards or more. I think he's a stud talent and with Williams gone he has Top 10 potential in my opinion. I love JStew for 2011 and will be hyping him heavily. Get used to that.
I'm a big Pierre Thomas fan but he needs to find a new home. Once we see where he ends up, his ranking will become much clearer.
Bowe may not catch the TDs again but Cassel improved as the season went along and Bowe is clearly the No. 1 WR in KC. Plus, he's a big-time talent. I've always liked him and I think his best is yet to come.
I'm a huge Miles Austin fan but I think Bryant is the more talented WR. If he can stay healthy and stay out of trouble I could see him being a Top 10 WR. I love Austin but I view him as the 1B there to Bryant's 1A.
I'm big on DeSean Jackson as I said before and Vincent Jackson is a proven WR1 playing with one of the elite QBs in the league. A full season from Vincent Jackson with Rivers should enable him to regain his prior standing. I see no reason to believe otherwise at this point.
. [/QB]I agree that Collie isn't a top 10 WR.....I'd have him in the low teens.
After D Will went down Stewart averaged less than 10 ppg. Over the last 6 games he averaged 11 ppg. Although I agree he is a quality RB....that team SUCKS and I can't see it improving enough around him to justify a high ranking. And Carolina's schedule is tougher this year than it was last year. He'd need to average over 15 ppg to justify your ranking.....considering he doesn't do anything ib the passing game he'll need to score around 12 TD's and average close to 100 ypg to get there.....don't see it.
Pierre Thomas signed a 4 year contract with New Orleans last month....so he'll be staying there, at least this year
Although I agree Bowe is KC's #1 Wr, without the TD's and high ypc, I can't see him getting much more than 220-230 fantasy points, which would make him a low end #2 WR.
In the games Romo started and completed last year Austin averaged 19 ppg. In the games Kitna started Austin averaged around 11 ppg. Austin and Kitna were clearly not on the same page and showed very little chemistry. Conversely Kitna locked onto Bryant and was clearly comfortable throwing to him. Whether that was because he got a lot of work with Bryant in TC and not much with Austin....or for some othewr reason, I'm not sure. Bryant was Kitna favored receiver. And I agree Bryant is a big time talent and if he can get his" jewelry purchases" in order he may mature into quality #1 WR. But, imo, at best that is a year or two away; this year at least I still see Austin as Dallas's #1 WR
In 6 years in V Jax's best year, he averaged less than 15 ppg, which would make hi m a low end #2 WR. Could he improve wildly on his previous best year to become a #1 FF Wr.....I suppose but I wouldn't count on it. D Jax regressed with Vick at QB....not sure we'll see a vast improvement this year. .
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Tom Kessenich
- Posts: 29849
- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
Preliminary 2011 Football Rankings
This is what I get for being so wrapped up in the NFBC. I missed the Thomas signing. That does change things for him although the concerns there are the team doesn't completely trust him, he has some durability concerns and Bush/Ivory are threats to take touches. But Thomas will move up as a result.
You're not going to get me to budge much, if at all, on Stewart. He's a major talent in my opinion who has almost always produced as the starter. He's never been a full-time starter before but he's young, talented and I can't see the Panthers being worse than they were last season. I still believe he has Top 10 upside in 2011. Huge JStew fan.
I am in full agreement that Austin's value with Romo is much higher and that Kitna killed Austin last season. Those who follow me on Twitter may have noticed me commenting on that once or twice. That said, Jason Garrett clearly loves Bryant (I don't blame him) and I expect Bryant to become their featured WR if he can stay healthy and not have any off-the-field issues. And as much as I like Austin, I think Bryant is more talented and has a higher ceiling. I think the Cowboys will have a sick passing attack this season if everyone stays healthy but I believe Bryant has more upside than Austin. That said, Bryant could be over-valued in drafts, making Austin the value play.
The last time Vincent Jackson played a full season, he topped 1,165 yards with 9 TDs. He had seven 100-yard receiving games that season and caught five passes or more in 10 games. He's the No. 1 WR in that offense and has an elite QB throwing to him. I think he's a strong WR1 option.
In Bowe's last two full seasons, he has averaged 79-1,092-11. In those 32 games, he caught five passes or more 18 times. TDs are always the most difficult stat to project but even if we expect his TD output to decline in 2011 (which is reasonable), you're still looking at a player who could reach 80+ receptions and is pretty much a lock to top 1,000 receiving yards if healthy. Plus, Bowe's receptions and receiving yards improved significantly in the second half of last season which I believe is the result of the Chiefs' offense coming together and Cassel settling into the system more comfortably. Project Bowe's second-half numbers out to a full season and they come to 92-1,484-16. While it would be unrealistic to issue that type of projection it does give you an indication of what his potential could be if Cassel is consistent throughout the season.
You're not going to get me to budge much, if at all, on Stewart. He's a major talent in my opinion who has almost always produced as the starter. He's never been a full-time starter before but he's young, talented and I can't see the Panthers being worse than they were last season. I still believe he has Top 10 upside in 2011. Huge JStew fan.
I am in full agreement that Austin's value with Romo is much higher and that Kitna killed Austin last season. Those who follow me on Twitter may have noticed me commenting on that once or twice. That said, Jason Garrett clearly loves Bryant (I don't blame him) and I expect Bryant to become their featured WR if he can stay healthy and not have any off-the-field issues. And as much as I like Austin, I think Bryant is more talented and has a higher ceiling. I think the Cowboys will have a sick passing attack this season if everyone stays healthy but I believe Bryant has more upside than Austin. That said, Bryant could be over-valued in drafts, making Austin the value play.
The last time Vincent Jackson played a full season, he topped 1,165 yards with 9 TDs. He had seven 100-yard receiving games that season and caught five passes or more in 10 games. He's the No. 1 WR in that offense and has an elite QB throwing to him. I think he's a strong WR1 option.
In Bowe's last two full seasons, he has averaged 79-1,092-11. In those 32 games, he caught five passes or more 18 times. TDs are always the most difficult stat to project but even if we expect his TD output to decline in 2011 (which is reasonable), you're still looking at a player who could reach 80+ receptions and is pretty much a lock to top 1,000 receiving yards if healthy. Plus, Bowe's receptions and receiving yards improved significantly in the second half of last season which I believe is the result of the Chiefs' offense coming together and Cassel settling into the system more comfortably. Project Bowe's second-half numbers out to a full season and they come to 92-1,484-16. While it would be unrealistic to issue that type of projection it does give you an indication of what his potential could be if Cassel is consistent throughout the season.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Preliminary 2011 Football Rankings
Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
In Bowe's last two full seasons, he has averaged 79-1,092-11. In those 32 games, he caught five passes or more 18 times. TDs are always the most difficult stat to project but even if we expect his TD output to decline in 2011 (which is reasonable), you're still looking at a player who could reach 80+ receptions and is pretty much a lock to top 1,000 receiving yards if healthy. Plus, Bowe's receptions and receiving yards improved significantly in the second half of last season which I believe is the result of the Chiefs' offense coming together and Cassel settling into the system more comfortably. Project Bowe's second-half numbers out to a full season and they come to 92-1,484-16. While it would be unrealistic to issue that type of projection it does give you an indication of what his potential could be if Cassel is consistent throughout the season. I know you're not much of a strength of schedule guy....but, imo, part of Bowe's stats last year were directly related to a soft out of division schedule. In division he averaged less than 13 ppg, out of division he averaged well over 20 ppg. Last year he played the NFC West and the AFC South, arguably the weakest defensive divisions in both conferences. This year KC plays the AFC East and the NFC North, again arguably much tougher defensive teams than in the NFC West and the AFC South.
In 2008 Bowe averaged 14.3 ppg, in 2009 he averaged 11.7 ppg; in 2010 against what may be viewed as weak competition he averaged 17.4 ppg. Against better comp I'd expect him to revert back closer to his 2008/2009 numbers.
As I said earlier, I expect Charles to also be impacted by a tougher schedule. KC won't be a playoff team this year and their offensive production won't be nearly as good as it was in 2010, imo.
In Bowe's last two full seasons, he has averaged 79-1,092-11. In those 32 games, he caught five passes or more 18 times. TDs are always the most difficult stat to project but even if we expect his TD output to decline in 2011 (which is reasonable), you're still looking at a player who could reach 80+ receptions and is pretty much a lock to top 1,000 receiving yards if healthy. Plus, Bowe's receptions and receiving yards improved significantly in the second half of last season which I believe is the result of the Chiefs' offense coming together and Cassel settling into the system more comfortably. Project Bowe's second-half numbers out to a full season and they come to 92-1,484-16. While it would be unrealistic to issue that type of projection it does give you an indication of what his potential could be if Cassel is consistent throughout the season. I know you're not much of a strength of schedule guy....but, imo, part of Bowe's stats last year were directly related to a soft out of division schedule. In division he averaged less than 13 ppg, out of division he averaged well over 20 ppg. Last year he played the NFC West and the AFC South, arguably the weakest defensive divisions in both conferences. This year KC plays the AFC East and the NFC North, again arguably much tougher defensive teams than in the NFC West and the AFC South.
In 2008 Bowe averaged 14.3 ppg, in 2009 he averaged 11.7 ppg; in 2010 against what may be viewed as weak competition he averaged 17.4 ppg. Against better comp I'd expect him to revert back closer to his 2008/2009 numbers.
As I said earlier, I expect Charles to also be impacted by a tougher schedule. KC won't be a playoff team this year and their offensive production won't be nearly as good as it was in 2010, imo.
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Tom Kessenich
- Posts: 29849
- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
Preliminary 2011 Football Rankings
I'm not a big SOS guy especially before the season begins and definitely before the draft (or now with no free agency, trades etc.). So much changes with regard to SOS between now and the season and then even more changes during the season. Plus, I've always found it odd that when factoring SOS people tend to favor defense as opposed to offense.
I don't dismiss SOS by any means but I also don't place as much emphasis on it as others do. I'm more of a talent wins out person. In other words, I believe nine times out of 10 talent will win the matchup or at least not be significantly impacted in a negative fashion.
I look at what Charles and Bowe did and I view them as being talented players. Charles is in line for more touches which enhances his potential. Bowe finished at an extremely high level last season and again I wouldn't project him to reach that level over the course of an entire season I do believe it provides an indication of what he can do in that offense with Cassel more comfortable. So I like both guys a lot and I'm evaluating Cassel as someone who may be worth pursuing as a QB2 with upside as well.
I don't dismiss SOS by any means but I also don't place as much emphasis on it as others do. I'm more of a talent wins out person. In other words, I believe nine times out of 10 talent will win the matchup or at least not be significantly impacted in a negative fashion.
I look at what Charles and Bowe did and I view them as being talented players. Charles is in line for more touches which enhances his potential. Bowe finished at an extremely high level last season and again I wouldn't project him to reach that level over the course of an entire season I do believe it provides an indication of what he can do in that offense with Cassel more comfortable. So I like both guys a lot and I'm evaluating Cassel as someone who may be worth pursuing as a QB2 with upside as well.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Preliminary 2011 Football Rankings
Originally posted by boutrous11:
Wayne, every time you post about how much you like Collie, you raise his ADP 3 slots.
(Unless this is a smokescreen, in that case you are a genius.) You have to understand, everybody knows that I don't know anything so when I post I actually drive his value down! Unless of course he is already 7 spots below Hines Ward, in which case he can't possibly go any lower.
Wayne
Wayne, every time you post about how much you like Collie, you raise his ADP 3 slots.
(Unless this is a smokescreen, in that case you are a genius.) You have to understand, everybody knows that I don't know anything so when I post I actually drive his value down!
Unless of course he is already 7 spots below Hines Ward, in which case he can't possibly go any lower. Wayne