Wild Card Playoff Round - Who Are You Picking?

Money · Post by **Money** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 1:14 pm

Falcons, Steelers & Bengals.

I've spent the entire week justifying a way for the Lions to win. I'm getting there.

1. Last time in N.O. they trailed by just 7 in the fourth quarter and they had the ball. So they were definitely in the game.

2. No Su last time

3. Shot themselves repeatedly with multiple personal foul penalties. I think they're past all of that

4. Delamas coming back is the key. If he can go they have a chance, if not, they're done.

I believe the LIONS WILL WIN !!!

kentucky · Post by **kentucky** » Fri Jan 06, 2012 3:28 am

Statistically speaking, using 3rd down offense/defense, red zone offense/defense, and T/O ratios, here's how they match up. This doesn't take into consideration home/road games.

Houston - edges in 3rd down conversions and red zone defense.

Detroit - Saints have big edge in 3rd down conversions, but Lions have the edge in the RZ both on offense and defense, plus the Lions are +12 versus the Saints comparing T/O ratio's. (if nothing else, take the points)

NYGiants - these two are polar opposites with the stats being used. if one has the edge on offense, the other has the edge on defense. even the T/O ratio has a difference of +1 to the Falcons. Edge goes to the home team.

Pitt - similar to the NY/ATL game except the Steelers have a big edge in 3rd down conversions. T/O margin +2 to the Broncos.

Ry's Guys · Post by **Ry's Guys** » Fri Jan 06, 2012 3:47 am

Saints (and WELL over 725 yards passing Tom)

Houston

Pittsburgh

Atlanta

Lions & Giants are just too self destructive with turnovers and penalties. Denver isn't a playoff team and their QB will probably look worse than he did last week. Bengals? flip of the coin game I took Houston cause they are the home team and have a better running game.

Does anyone remember a over/under so damn high before? Last I looked it was at 59!!! That is pretty incedible for a playoff game.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Jan 06, 2012 6:38 am

Originally posted by Money:
Falcons, Steelers & Bengals.

I've spent the entire week justifying a way for the Lions to win. I'm getting there.

1. Last time in N.O. they trailed by just 7 in the fourth quarter and they had the ball. So they were definitely in the game.

2. No Su last time

3. Shot themselves repeatedly with multiple personal foul penalties. I think they're past all of that

4. Delamas coming back is the key. If he can go they have a chance, if not, they're done.

I believe the LIONS WILL WIN !!! Perhaps this info from ESPN will change your mind, Joe.

The Lions rush four or fewer defenders 78.9 percent of the time this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Against four or fewer rushers this season, Brees completed 74 percent of his passes for 4,032 yards and 34 touchdowns.

BONGIZMO · Post by **BONGIZMO** » Fri Jan 06, 2012 8:16 am

Texans, Giants, Steelers, Saints although the only one i truly feel good about is banged up Pittsburgh.

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Sat Jan 07, 2012 2:39 am

Here's how I'm betting these games:

1) Houston -4 over Cincinnati. (38 points)

Houston has a better running game, a better defense, and is at home. They already beat the Bengals in Cincy where Yates threw for over 300 yards. The Bengals are 0-7 vs. playoff teams

Pick: Take Houston -4

2) New Orleans -10.5 over Detroit (59.5 points)

Everyone knows there will be no defense here. The Saints have the advantage of actually having a running game and are crushingly dominate at home. Brees and the Saints also have big edge in playoff experience. But picking the Saints here means giving a lot of points to a playoff team with an explosive offense. Detroit also leads the league in points off turnovers, which points to even more scoring.

Pick: Bet the Over and just enjoy the show.

3) NY Giants -3 over Atlanta (47.5)

I'm a full blown Falcon homer, so hard to factor out my emotion. The Giants feel like the better play because they're finally healthy and both their pass rush and their running game are coming together at the right time, making their season-long rankings less useful. Giants tend to under-perform at home, but the Falcons are really a Home + Dome team who are having to play away and outside. In addition, Eli has experience and success in the playoffs whereas Matt Ryan is 0-2.

Pick: Draw your own damn conclusions...I'm not jinxing my team.

4) Pittsburgh -8.5 over Denver (33.5 points)

All arrows point to a very low scoring game.

The Steelers have scored only 57 points in their last 4 games, including 27 points against the Rams which really shouldn't even count. So 30 total points in the other 3 games. Mendy is out, their best cover man Ryan Clark is out, and Ben is gimpy. Plus, Pittsburgh is just plain sluggish on the road.

The Bronco are ...the Broncos. Losers of 3 straight with a college QB who has lost his confidence to throw the ball. Elway's admonition to "pull the trigger" will result in more turnovers, in my opinion. This Dick LeBeau defense will eat him alive. The Steelers lead the league in scoring defense, allowing only 14.2 points per game. How many points do you really think Tebow can put up against them?

The bottom line is a VERY low scoring game. I think the Steelers win, but giving 8.5 points in a game that could feature one total offensive TD is too risky. A single Denver defensive TD would kill that point spread.

Pick: Bet the Under and don't sweat Pittsburgh having to maintain a two-score lead.

Eddiejag · Post by **Eddiejag** » Sat Jan 07, 2012 5:00 am

Texans at home,great def,and the best running game in football.They also get Andre back.

Saints the Saints are 8 and 0 at home this year againest the spread.They will roll.

Giants like their D and Eli has done it before,being at home is huge in this game.

Pitt this game scares me a little as it could be a low scoring game that comes down to the 4th quarter.

The Franchise · Post by **The Franchise** » Sat Jan 07, 2012 5:45 am

This may seem strange, but I think the way Atlanta needs to combat the Giants pass rush is to spread them out and go no-huddle. You need to be aggressive and not play scared. The Giants secondary is a joke and if you try running the ball and run your base offense your playing right into the Giants hands.

I'm taking the Falcons (hopefully they follow my advice

)

Lions / Saints - I'm taking the under and the Lions to cover, but lose.

Staying away from other 2 games

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Sat Jan 07, 2012 6:10 am

Originally posted by The Franchise:
This may seem strange, but I think the way Atlanta needs to combat the Giants pass rush is to spread them out and go no-huddle. You need to be aggressive and not play scared. The Giants secondary is a joke and if you try running the ball and run your base offense your playing right into the Giants hands.

I don't disagree with this premise, but you're neglecting one critical element: The Atlanta Offensive Coordinator is Mike Mularkey and he's an idiot.

I have watched just about every single snap of every single Falcons game this year and I'm not exaggerating when I say I can predict the offensive play call 80% of the time. Ryan does MUCH better in the no-huddle scheme, but Mularkey often refuses to go to it and instead insists on trying to establish Michael Turner up the middle again and again and again no matter how ineffective it is. Ryan always seems to be facing 2nd and long and/or 3rd and long every series.

In that Overtime loss against the Saints, the Falcons faced a 4th and inches at their own 29 yard line. I knew Mularkey would run Turner up the middle...I knew it, everyone in my row knew it, the Saints knew it, Tom Kessenich's grandmother knew it. Everyone was screaming, "DON'T GIVE THE BALL TO TURNER UP THE MIDDLE!!!". Did that make Mularkey move off his stubborn insistence to not alter his game plan based on the flow of action? Nope. Turner up the middle for a LOSS.

I sure wish some stupid NFL Owner would hire Mularkey away from my football team.

[ January 07, 2012, 12:11 PM: Message edited by: Shrink Attack ]

The Franchise · Post by **The Franchise** » Sat Jan 07, 2012 6:17 am

Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
quote:Originally posted by The Franchise:
This may seem strange, but I think the way Atlanta needs to combat the Giants pass rush is to spread them out and go no-huddle. You need to be aggressive and not play scared. The Giants secondary is a joke and if you try running the ball and run your base offense your playing right into the Giants hands.

I don't disagree with this premise, but you're neglecting one critical element: The Atlanta Offensive Coordinator is Mike Mularkey and he's an idiot.

I have watched just about every single snap of every single Falcons game this year and I'm not exaggerating when I say I can predict the offensive play call 80% of the time. Ryan does MUCH better in the no-huddle scheme, but Mularkey often refuses to go to it and instead insists on trying to establish Michael Turner up the middle again and again and again no matter how ineffective it is. Ryan always seems to be facing 2nd and long and/or 3rd and long every series.

In that Overtime loss against the Saints, the Falcons faced a 4th and inches at their own 29 yard line. I knew Mularkey would run Turner up the middle...I knew it, everyone in my row knew it, the Saints knew it, Tom Kessenich's grandmother knew it. Everyone was screaming, "DON'T GIVE THE BALL TO TURNER UP THE MIDDLE!!!". Did that make Mularkey move off his stubborn insistence to not alter his game plan based on the flow of action? Nope. Turner up the middle for a LOSS.

I sure wish some stupid NFL Owner would hire Mularkey away from my football team. [/QUOTE]I know exactly what your talking about. I watched all their games also and do realize Mularkey is a moron.

I'm hoping that he has an epiphany tonight and realizes that spreading out the Giants is going to be the only way to slow down that rush and win the game.......