2009: Skill versus Luck (Revisited)

TradeStar28 · Post by **TradeStar28** » Fri Aug 28, 2009 4:46 pm

Over the years, this topic has been discussed, almost to the extent of beating a dead horse.....but I figured I would revisit it as we get closer to the draft.

I always believed that the more skillful players here in NFFC rise to the top and push down the luck element of fantasy football on a more consistent basis.

This year, I feel that the luck factor will play a bigger role than years past....

First and foremost, a few years ago, we were introduced to this RBBC trend. Most teams went from having the single workhorse to a two headed monster. Now, we are seeing teams with triple play backfields. 1 Lead back, 1 change of pace RB and even the 3rd down backs. This makes it quite hard to decide who will be the go to guy. In the past, we just had to select which teams workhorse would be the top RB in the NFL and outperform the others. Now you gotta be lucky with injuries, team game plans for any given Sunday,etc.

Also in 2009, it seems that alot of teams have not only 2 good WR's (Deep threat & possesion guy) but now its closer to 3 and in some cases 4 WRs. In the past, it was sometimes worthwhile to take WR#2 on a team later, instead of WR#1 early. But there are some WR#3 and WR#4 this year that can step in and contribute a fair amount.

So I see the skill to luck ratio switch from 65:35 to about 55:45 for this year.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:07 pm

Ry's Guys · Post by **Ry's Guys** » Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:23 pm

Your argument seems very strange to me...there are more variables to look at now than in years past (I agree with your opinion on that) so how does that mean a "lesser" (in your opinion) FF player has a better chance now?!?
I've seen this conversation in the baseball mb also. I find it funny that if someone people don't know or haven't heard of wins it must be lucky, but if it is someone they know and respect then luck had nothing or little to do with it? "Good" FF players have good luck when they have a good year and they have bad luck when they have a bad year, just like other FF players.
IMO anyone that drafts can win, I don't believe in "dead money" because no one is drafting K's and DST in the first 5 rounds and anybody can have injuries!

TradeStar28 · Post by **TradeStar28** » Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:45 pm

Bullgod,

In respect to injuries, that is out of our control. Any player who has remained healthy in the past can get injured in the present and future. Ofcourse, we can always look objectively at players who have a history of injuries in the past and subjectively decide if they are worth the risk in a current redraft.

But my main point is that the current NFL has a broader talent pool and for the most part, the RB & WR position for some teams have many weapons.

Ultimately, it comes down to the fantasy football player drafting guys who will collectively put up the most points, and also take in consideration the ADP value. I am just thinking that it may make it more likely that people who I deem an inferior fantasy football player to me has a greater chance to get lucky because of the amount of choices there are at the RB & WR position.

For example- RBs for Bills, Browns, Raiders, Broncos, Patriots, Jets, Chiefs,Bucs,Cowboys, Bengals, Indy, Pitt, Seattle,Cardinals,Saints and a bunch of other teams.....

Anyone can guess which of these teams many options will emerge....and get lucky because right now they have many options and we do not know the game plan of the coaches and how they will use those players.

Should I go with Fred Jackson in my draft? The guy is solid and has low wear and tear,,,,but whats up with Marshawn when he comes back after 3 games....oh and how about dominic rhodes...will he be stealing the goal line carries.....(this is just one point of many i can make)

I guess my point is, the better teams this year will draft the first 4 rounds with less question marks (picks 1 through 56) and then hopefully get lucky in rounds 5 to 10 with the many question marks that exist right now.

TradeStar28 · Post by **TradeStar28** » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:08 pm

$nakesh....you mention the later rounds...but we both know (or maybe just I do) that in rounds 12-19, there is MAYBE, and I repeat MAYBE, 1 player in each of those rounds that emerge as anything worthy. I am strictly referring to rounds 5 through (lets call it) 11.

Leon gonna get alot of love from dirty Sanchez?

Menderhall or Willie Parker?

jamal or jerome or the rookie davis?

Benson or the rookie?

sammy or maroney (zoinks!) fred or the other two dudes?

do i draft ocho early or do i go with lavy in the mids or try out chris henry this year?

Ofcourse FI$HER is more likely to come up with the right answers than most.....

but with so many options, it gives the our opponents a bigger chance to hitting a lottery ticket due to a guess...

TradeStar28 · Post by **TradeStar28** » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:21 pm

Lavy Coles

BONGIZMO · Post by **BONGIZMO** » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:23 pm

I do believe he refers to Mr. Coles whom the NYJs probably wish was still in the house for the prize rookie QB...

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:36 pm

As long as you didn't have a kid, your are fine FI$H.

Each year, new variables pop up. Some with skills see theirs erode a bit resting on the past, while others identify the new variables and refine them into their new game plan.

There's dozens of very important variables, but there is one that I see reviewing draft boards that good teams seem to always do and I've yet to see anyone really write anything about it.

IMO... it'll take more skill to win this year.

[ August 29, 2009, 12:37 AM: Message edited by: JohnZ ]