2009: Skill versus Luck (Revisited)

Purple Helmets · Post by **Purple Helmets** » Fri Aug 28, 2009 7:53 pm

Originally posted by FI$HER:
Over the years, this topic has been discussed, almost to the extent of beating a dead horse.....but I figured I would revisit it as we get closer to the draft.

I always believed that the more skillful players here in NFFC rise to the top and push down the luck element of fantasy football on a more consistent basis.

This year, I feel that the luck factor will play a bigger role than years past....

First and foremost, a few years ago, we were introduced to this RBBC trend. Most teams went from having the single workhorse to a two headed monster. Now, we are seeing teams with triple play backfields. 1 Lead back, 1 change of pace RB and even the 3rd down backs. This makes it quite hard to decide who will be the go to guy. In the past, we just had to select which teams workhorse would be the top RB in the NFL and outperform the others. Now you gotta be lucky with injuries, team game plans for any given Sunday,etc.

Also in 2009, it seems that alot of teams have not only 2 good WR's (Deep threat & possesion guy) but now its closer to 3 and in some cases 4 WRs. In the past, it was sometimes worthwhile to take WR#2 on a team later, instead of WR#1 early. But there are some WR#3 and WR#4 this year that can step in and contribute a fair amount.

So I see the skill to luck ratio switch from 65:35 to about 55:45 for this year. Because of all the reasons you listed above, I think the skill factor in FF will be greater than ever before...or at least versus the last 10 years. More than ever before draft boards will look different starting from the top...not as cookie cutter as in past years...and I think with more true strategy options comes the need for more skill. Not saying I have it...but looking forward to putting my mind to the test.

[ August 29, 2009, 01:53 AM: Message edited by: Purple Helmets ]

D-Day Heroes · Post by **D-Day Heroes** » Fri Aug 28, 2009 10:41 pm

In 2007 when Brady threw for 50 Tds , how many teams with him WON ?

In 2008 when Brady broke a leg in the 1st game and was out for the year , how many teams with him WON ?

When you show me a manager that has won 3 championships in a row , for that matter has there ever even been a back to back cahampion in the NFFC ?
Then I will start touting skill.

If there was not a great deal of luck involved , it would not be called Gambling.
If there was not some skill involved no one would play this game.

Its only human nature to want to feel like you can controll you destiny

but wise men know
Its 50/50 like everything in life, you can't controll the cards your dealt , but you can controll what you do with the ones you are dealt.

Its a great game , its great action and the prize ain't that bad, thats why we play.

Favorite quote of mine is from Joe Pesci , In the movie -With Honors- .

" Winners forget thier in a race , they just LOVE TO RUN "

If you love playing this game , you have already won

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Aug 29, 2009 1:06 am

in the past i've tried to put a % on the luck/skill question, but i don't think it really matters in fantasy football. as long as a particiapnt has a minimum fantasy football IQ and a minimum amount of time to spend, there 'almost' as good as someone who has a high fantasy football IQ and spends lots of time on FF.

in addition, the 3 week sprint in the playoffs is mostly luck driven, so i gotta go with more luck than skill in FF.

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Sat Aug 29, 2009 1:10 am

If I win it was Luck, if I don't there was a more skilled player in my League.

John

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sat Aug 29, 2009 1:16 am

Originally posted by Raiders:
If I win it was Luck, if I don't there was a more skilled player in my League.This

Robert Edwards · Post by **Robert Edwards** » Sat Aug 29, 2009 2:45 am

Originally posted by Bullgod:
IMO anyone that drafts can win, I don't believe in "dead money" because no one is drafting K's and DST in the first 5 rounds... Darn, there goes my secret strategy!

renman · Post by **renman** » Sat Aug 29, 2009 7:24 am

I have the same opinion on this as I always have. In snap shot moments there are obvious situations where luck plays a big roll in this. Whether it be injuries or a player who has a great matchup coming up short because the game breaks in an odd way... or your QB gets stuck in a massive rainstorm or whatever....

However... over the long run.. with a larger sample to review... I believe the more skilled fantasy football players will be identified. I liken it very much to high stakes 7 card hold em. In isolated spots you can see luck play a huge roll in a weaker player beating a strong player thanks to a break with cards... however, over a period of time the more skilled player will get identified

Just one mans opinion...

lumpy463 · Post by **lumpy463** » Sat Aug 29, 2009 1:48 pm

All I can say is:

One Auction Championship
One Primetime Main Event League Championship
Two Classic Main Event League Championships
Four Draft Champion Championships
One Classic Event Consolation Championship
One Primetime Championship Top Five Finish
Three Classic Championsip Top Ten Finishes

It definitely must be luck!

Derek "Lumpy" Anderson

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Sat Aug 29, 2009 1:52 pm

Originally posted by Derek Anderson:
All I can say is:

One Auction Championship
One Primetime Main Event League Championship
Two Classic Main Event League Championships
Four Draft Champion Championships
One Classic Event Consolation Championship
One Primetime Championship Top Five Finish
Three Classic Championsip Top Ten Finishes

It definitely must be luck!

Derek "Lumpy" Anderson Was this done while drafting in ChiTown?

Good Skills this year,

John

lumpy463 · Post by **lumpy463** » Sat Aug 29, 2009 2:04 pm

Vegas baby. The land of luck.

Derek "Lumpy" Anderson