Am I screwed? Please assess....

ryanash · Post by **ryanash** » Sun Sep 05, 2004 4:41 pm

When I was drafting my first three players, I couldn't avoid the "running backs are paramount" paradigm. I was the #12 position and the following is how I sequentially picked my team:
1-Fred Taylor 2-Rudi Johnson 3- Michael Bennett(all other decent running backs were gone, i.e. Suggs, Martin, Jones.)
4-Steve Smith 5-Jerry Porter 6- Jeff Garcia(All of the other top 15 QB's were gone by round 6)
7-Onterrio Smith(Insurace for Bennett)8-Andre Davis 9-Kevin Johnson 10-Carson Palmer 11- Darius Watts(I think will start over Ashley) 12-Greg Jones(Insurace for Fred Taylor) I won't bore you with last 6 rounds(kicker, TE's and Defense). I could have had Eric Moulds and I took Michael Bennett instead. I am upset at myself. What do you guys think of my team? Do you think I am screwed based on the wide receivers that I have? Am I insecure? Yes I am and I just want somebody to tell me that everything will be all right.....

[ September 05, 2004, 10:43 PM: Message edited by: dorkknocker ]

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:06 pm

It's okay. Everything will be alright. You have a year to prepare for next time. Just kidding.

Your team (excluding Bennett until he's starting) is projected to score about 121 points a game based on FBG's projections. Starting Moulds instead of KJ would have increased that by about 5 points. My team projects about 130 and another in my league is about 133. All of those are within 9% of each other which is way, way less than any projection error. Of course then there are injuries and weekly management of your team. Which means we still have to play the games.

I had your decision in round 3. The last decent RB was taken just before my spot (Dunn) and I took Moulds instead of reaching even though I had no RBs at the time. I'm still at peace with that.

TradeStar28 · Post by **TradeStar28** » Sun Sep 05, 2004 7:49 pm

JP -

Can you give me a FBG calculation on this starting lineup please ?

QB - T. Brady
RB - Deuce McCallister
RB - Richie Anderson
WR - Chad Johnson
WR - Hines Ward
WR - Andre Johnson
WR - Jerry Porter
TE - D. Graham
K - J. Wilkins
D - Buffalo Defense

Thank you. Also can you give me the FBG difference between Richie Anderson versus Travis (My Points Will Be) Minor.

We drafted Najeh Davenport so Ico Jones and I are hoping that Ahman Green's knee cap falls off!

lichtman · Post by **lichtman** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:36 am

Liquid -- We are the 133 team he referred to. Anderson is forecast for 94 points, Minor for 140. But Richie Anderson will be better than FBG projections the worse Eddie George is.

[ September 06, 2004, 01:44 PM: Message edited by: Ico Jones ]

richieprimo · Post by **richieprimo** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:31 am

ICO...where do you guys get these projections from? I'm new to all this "expert" analysis and never drafted in a 14 team league. I usually go by "feel" at the draft, but I think that I did pretty well. Your help would be appreciated. Thanks and good luck.

Please don't send me to a joke link...been there years ago.

NY League 1 - Pick #9

[ September 06, 2004, 02:33 PM: Message edited by: Grid Reapers ]

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:33 am

Originally posted by Liquid:
JP -

Can you give me a FBG calculation on this starting lineup please ?

QB - T. Brady
RB - Deuce McCallister
RB - Richie Anderson
WR - Chad Johnson
WR - Hines Ward
WR - Andre Johnson
WR - Jerry Porter
TE - D. Graham
K - J. Wilkins
D - Buffalo Defense

Thank you. Also can you give me the FBG difference between Richie Anderson versus Travis (My Points Will Be) Minor.

We drafted Najeh Davenport so Ico Jones and I are hoping that Ahman Green's knee cap falls off!

Total 2105 or about 131.5 (not counting bye week degradation)

Minor at 116 for the year and Anderson at 89. They had Sammie at 80.

I assume that 116 will go to Sammie if he sticks. If it's only 116, I suspect there will be a new name. He'll have to show something to beat Moe's projected 150 or Wheatley's 147. I need 1 of those guys to have a big year, say 200 points (Stephen Davis range) for my team to be feared.

Clearly the pre-season projection spread is closer than the 2000 pre-election polls. You have the advantage of having more Chad in your lineup than I do so I think I have a problem.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:40 am

JP - if you have the time? I'm not an FBG subscriber:

QB: McNair, Plummer, Rivers
RB: Tomlinson, Staley, Dayne, Hearst
WR: Walker, McCareins, Wayne, Driver, Hall, Watts
TE: Gonzalez
K: Carney, Nedney
D: Denver, Atlanta

Thanks for the calculation - and no worries if you're too busy

Dave

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:41 am

Trying to decide if I care... hmmm, well - won't change the draft so no harm, eh?

seeferman · Post by **seeferman** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:48 am

Hey guys. Just a heads up. Travis Minor has lost the starting job in Miami. No joke, just look it up. Cut his projections way down.

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:52 am

Originally posted by Dyv:
Trying to decide if I care... hmmm, well - won't change the draft so no harm, eh? 2077 or 130 a game.

We're all in the same ball park, + - a field goal. It just shows there are many ways to get to the same place and the random events on the field will overwhelm all this planning and scheming.

How about that 40 yd TD called back on a holding penalty.

Wide right.

Interception run bacl for a TD.

From what I've seen, about 3 or 4 teams a league had a very bad draft but the other 10 or 11 are all in the running.