Time To Talk Football With The NFFC Trendsetters League

[Greg Ambrosius]

Many of our die-hard NFFC owners have been preparing for the 2011 season by drafting in the Trendsetters League. This league started the day after the Super Bowl and hosts a few rounds of drafts every couple of weeks. These 14 owners have already drafted through 16 rounds and will be drafting through 30 rounds. This is a Draft Champions format that I believe is being played out during the season.

I've been given some of the early results so that we can finally talk some football on these boards and turn our attentions towards Draft Day. We all believe that this lockout will get resolved somehow, someway, so let's turn our attention towards the draft and start the preparations now.

I won't identify the draft picks with the owners, but here is a list of the 14 owners in this league: Mark Moyer, Wayne Ellis, Jeff Dawson, Glenn Lowy, Matt Bayley, Billy Wasosky, Jules McLean, Greg Morgan, Chris Gillman, Dan Thomas, Donnie D'Amico, Jack Haan, Jeff Dawson and John Reuss.

Let's start out with the First Round and see what it looks like. We can analyze a few rounds at a time and have some fun with this. Here we go:

NFFC Trendsetters League
First Round:
1. Adrian Foster
2. Adrian Peterson
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Andre Johnson
5. Chris Johnson
6. Jamal Charles
7. Ray Rice
8. Roddy White
9. Calvin Johnson
10. Reggie Wayne
11. Greg Jennings
12. Michael Vick
13. Hakeem Nicks
14. Rashard Mendenhall

That's 7 RBs, 6 WRs and 1 QB. Thoughts?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Okay, you almost need to see what these teams got in the Second Round to see how those first round picks worked out. Here's the first two rounds:

NFFC Trendsetters League
First Round:
1. Adrian Foster
2. Adrian Peterson
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Andre Johnson
5. Chris Johnson
6. Jamal Charles
7. Ray Rice
8. Roddy White
9. Calvin Johnson
10. Reggie Wayne
11. Greg Jennings
12. Michael Vick
13. Hakeem Nicks
14. Rashard Mendenhall

Second Round
15. Miles Austin
16. Frank Gore
17. Larry Fitzgerald
18. Mike Wallace
19. Dwayne Bowe
20. Austin Collie
21. Aaron Rodgers
22. Darren McFadden
23. Maurice Jones-Drew
24. DeSean Jackson
25. Marques Colston
26. Matt Forte
27. Drew Brees
28. Jeremy Maclin

Third Round (Using Third Round Reversal: 14-1 again):
29. Peyton Hillis
30. Tom Brady
31. Ahmad Bradshaw
32. Peyton Manning
33. Phillip Rivers
34. Antonio Gates
35. Michael Turner
36. Dallas Clark
37. Dez Bryant
38. Vincent Jackson
39. Mike Williams
40. Steven Jackson
41. Wes Welker
42. Jonathan Stewart

Fourth Round:
43. Kenny Britt
44. Jermichael Finley
45. Jason Witten
46. Tony Romo
47. Vernon Davis
48. Brandon Marshall
49. Steve Johnson
50. Ryan Matthews
51. Jahvid Best
52. Rookie 1
53. DeAngelo Williams
54. Eli Manning
55. Knowshon Moreno
56. Brandon Lloyd

Round Five:
57. Percy Harvin
58. Matt Schaub
59. Steven Smith
60. Shonn Greene
61. Anquan Boldin
62. Felix Jones
63. Sidney Rice
64. Pierre Garcon
65. LeGarrett Blount
66. Ben Roethlisberger
67. Rookie 2
68. Josh Freeman
69. Owen Daniels
70. Joe Flacco

Round Six
71. Santonio Holmes
72. Jordy Nelson
73. Santana Moss
74. Zach Miller
75. Benjarvus Green Ellis
76. Matt Ryan
77. Matthew Stafford
78. Jimmy Graham
79. Robert Meachem
80. James Starks
81. Randy Moss
82. Sam Bradford
83. Cedric Benson
84. Jay Cutler

Round Seven:
85. Marcedes Lewis
86. Lance Moore
87. Mario Manningham
88. Steve Smith
89. Kellen Winslow
90. Chris Ivory
91. Johnny Knox
92. Joseph Addai
93. Danny Amendola
94. Beanie Wells
95. Rookie 3
96. Michael Crabtree
97. Michael Bush
98. Chris Cooley

Round Eight:
99. Mark Sanchez
100. Mike Thomas
101. Tony Gonzalez
102. Mike Tolbert
103. Tim Tebow
104. Rob Gronkowski
105. Ryan Torain
106. Fred Jackson
107. Matt Cassell
108. Ryan Grant
109. Pierre Thomas
110. Brandon Pettigrew
111. Marshawn Lynch
112. Ladainian Tomlinson

Round Nine:
113. Chad Ochocinco
114. Davone Bess
115. Brandon Jacobs
116. Ronnie Brown
117. Mike Sims-Walker
118. Ryan Fitzpatrick
119. Mike Williams
120. Jordan Shipley
121. Donovan McNabb
122. Jerome Simpson
123. Rookie 4
124. Carson Palmer
125. Donald Brown
126. Danny Woodhead

Round Ten:
127. Mike Goodson
128. Jason Campbell
129. Terrell Owens
130. Nate Burleson
131. Danario Alexander
132. Aaron Hernandez
133. Emmanuel Sanders
134. Kevin Kolb
135. Braylon Edwards
136. Dustin Keller
137. Green Bay D
138. Rashad Jennings
139. Pittsburgh D
140. Malcolm Floyd

Round Eleven:
141. David Garrard
142. Ben Watson
143. Tim Hightower
144. Colt McCoy
145. CJ Spiller
146. Deion Branch
147. Jermaine Gresham
148. Todd Heap
149. James Jones
150. Reggie Bush
151. Rookie 5
152. NY Jets D
153. Jacoby Ford
154. Hines Ward

Round Twelve:
155. Brent Celek
156. Montario Hardesty
157. Anthony Armstrong
158. Louis Murphy
159. Kyle Orton
160. Steve Breaston
161. New England D
162. Derrick Mason
163. Jared Cook
164. Tashard Choice
165. Darren Sproles
166. NY Giants D
167. Chicago D
168. Tony Moeaki


Thoughts?

[ May 09, 2011, 02:14 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

[Tom Kessenich]

Here are my thoughts on the first round. Take them for what they are worth.

1. I love Shady McCoy but no way am I taking him (or Andre Johnson) over Chris Johnson. I'm admittedly a huge fan of Light Blue Jesus but we've seen his ceiling and his floor and with both he's a stud fantasy RB. He would be no lower than third on my board behind Foster and Peterson.

2. No Aaron Rodgers in the first? The guy is a stud QB and the best at his position for fantasy owners. After Foster, Peterson and CJ are off my board, I'm thinking seriously about taking Rodgers there - especially with 6 points per TD pass.

3. Vick in the first is too rich for my blood given the durability concerns his style of play creates. Plus, I'm not taking him ahead of Rodgers. I would take both Rodgers and Brady ahead of Vick and I'd strongly consider Brees too.

4. No argument with the WRs for the most part. I think Nicks is deserving of a high pick so I could see taking him as high as third after Megatron or fifth after Wayne.

5. Love Mendenhall and I think he's great value at the turn. In fact, there should be a large number of quality RBs available early in the second round which makes the decision to go QB or WR in the first very appealing.

6. Love Miles Austin with a healthy Romo but 15 is too high for me given Dez Bryant's potential.

7. MJD at 23 is an insane steal. Crazy value there.

8. Collie at 20 is real risky in my opinion. Yes he put up big numbers last year but a healthy Clark plus Garcon (who I love as a talent) could rob him of WR1 potential.

[ April 05, 2011, 04:26 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

[Coltsfan]

Here's my thoughts so far.

I absolutely loved the Jamal Charles pick at 1.6 I have him as my second ranked player overall and the sky is the limit with this guy. Paired with MJD in the second this is a fantastic start.

The only player that I felt like was probably not a first rounder that went in the first was Reggie Wayne. I have him as WR13 right now so he's not somebody I'll be looking to this early in the draft.

The rest of the first round was pretty much as expected. I actually really like the Michael Vick pick at 1.12.

In the second round I have to agree with Tom that Miles Austin went a bit earlier than I thought he would. I'd rather get him bottom of the second.

I'm not a huge Frank Gore fan this year and while I'm sure he'll be going in the early second or late first I"m passing on him that early.

I thought that Aaron Rodgers went in about the right spot for a DC, Collie was a reach but that particular drafter is going to be reaching for players he wants all year this year...

I really like the Forte pick at the end of the second. Nice upside there. We'll see who the bring in to Chicago but he has high first round upside.


Tom - me and you look at drafting entirely different. If I was wanting to pick a team that had the absolute best chance of finishing in fourth or fifth place then I think that you can get there with the conservative approach and your knowledge of players. For me, I'm okay with either first or last so I have no problem taking huge risks with players others will be passing on because of the "risk." I just don't want a bunch of guys that are likely to put up what is expected because that leads to mediocrity. Just my 2 cents.


Wayne

[Tom Kessenich]

Originally posted by Coltsfan:

Tom - me and you look at drafting entirely different. If I was wanting to pick a team that had the absolute best chance of finishing in fourth or fifth place then I think that you can get there with the conservative approach and your knowledge of players. For me, I'm okay with either first or last so I have no problem taking huge risks with players others will be passing on because of the "risk." I just don't want a bunch of guys that are likely to put up what is expected because that leads to mediocrity. Just my 2 cents.


Wayne I don't want mediocrity either Wayne. But I'm also less likely to take risks in the early rounds since those picks are almost always critical to achieving fantasy success. So I'm looking for high-upside/low-risk players in those spots. Rodgers, for example, qualifies on both counts whereas Vick comes with more risk. Both players may have stud potential (which I believe both do) but one of them carries a much lower floor in my opinion so I'm going to lean toward the stud talent who comes with fewer concerns.

Where I'm more likely to gamble is after I've secured my foundation players in the middle to later rounds. Last year in my top league I had two stud WRs (so I thought) in Moss and Austin, so I gambled on Percy Harvin's upside rather than going with a safer choice like Hines Ward. That move paid off.

So I don't believe you should just sit back and play it safe with every pick. But I do believe that in the early rounds especially your chances for success are typically greater if you minimize the risks involved with your picks. That's generally my approach.

[Coltsfan]

It's just 2 different approaches Tom. Three years ago I played it much safer than I do now. But for me the only reason to gamble in the first 5 rounds is if somebody has huge upside. That's why I would definitely take Michael Vick ahead of Rodgers. Vick can carry your team almost single handedly whereas Rodgers is a much safer choice but doesn't have the ceiling that Vick has. There's nothing wrong with either approach- I've just gotten past the fear of finishing near the bottom so I'm not afraid to take more risk IF the upside is there. If not then I'll take the safer choice every time.

Who do you feel are the high risk/high reward guys this year? I've got some thoughts but I would be interested in hearing yours.


Wayne

[Tom Kessenich]

I think where we disagree Wayne is with Rodgers' ceiling. I think it's just as high - if not higher - than Vick's. So I don't feel Rodgers is just a "safe" choice. I think he's a stud talent and someone I will strongly consider in the middle of the first round in 2011.

As far as high-risk/high-reward guys some of the ones who immediately come to mind are:

Michael Vick
Darren McFadden (still not sure I entirely trust him)
Larry Fitzgerald (obviously a stud talent but needs a QB)
Dez Bryant
Kenny Britt (great talent but needs a QB)
Austin Collie

Those are just a few off the top of my head.

[Coltsfan]

It's funny but I don't trust McFadden either. He will be going sometime mid to early second this year and he is definitely a high risk guy.

Collie is definitely on my list. Other guys I would put there are Felix Jones, Jahvid Best, Ryan Matthews, and even Antonio Gates. Gates can put up WR1 numbers very easily if healthy and can probably be had mid third or so.

With WR's I would definitely go Dez Bryant and Kenny Britt. I wouldn't put Fitz on the list because he still scored very well last year with no QB play - he just needs more endzone looks this year.

The last guy that comes to mind right now is Matthew Stafford. If healthy he could be a - 30+ TD guy this year and can probably be had in the 6th or 7th round.


Wayne

[Tom Kessenich]

I was going to put Stafford on the list but he's pretty much on my "Avoid" list for 2011 given how brittle he is. But I agree he's someone who could end up anywhere from Top 10 among QBs to 25 if he gets hurt again.

I agree about Felix Jones to a degree. I'm not sure he can be more than a solid RB2 and I don't think his floor is much greater since Garrett loves him and clearly wants to use him as often as possible.

Mathews is someone I thought about as well but I think his ADP is likely going to minimize the risk attached to him. If he is drafted in the 18-20 range among RBs (which I think is likely), I don't think there's much risk for him there. He is a terrific talent and even with Tolbert in the mix I think Mathews will be no worse than a solid RB2.

Jahvid Best is another one whose ADP should minimize the risk. I'm not sure his turf toe injury last season was an indication he's brittle so I don't view him presently as a major durability concern.

With Gates, I think he's pretty much the same guy he's been the past few years. Stud talent clearly but there's also the durability concerns. I dislike drafting TEs early but if I didn't have that mindset I wouldn't shy away from Gates. I'd just be sure to have a TE2 on my roster I really liked.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Okay, time to look at the Third Round in the Trendsetters League, which of course was using 3RR (14-1). What do you think of these picks?

Third Round (Using Third Round Reversal: 14-1 again):
29. Peyton Hillis
30. Tom Brady
31. Ahmad Bradshaw
32. Peyton Manning
33. Phillip Rivers
34. Antonio Gates
35. Michael Turner
36. Dallas Clark
37. Dez Bryant
38. Vincent Jackson
39. Mike Williams
40. Steven Jackson
41. Wes Welker
42. Jonathan Stewart