FF is a science...

TamuScarecrow · Post by **TamuScarecrow** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 5:29 am

That's why I like the auction league and am good at it. You assemble your talent and handcuff accordingly.

Normally the guy who has whined about the short roster in the past is the guy who fails to handcuff properly on draft day or fails to spend enough to get his handcuff when his starter goes down. Don't take the word "whine" personally as this discussion has come up every year in the NFFC. Those who draft well and handcuff accordingly normally can avoid the disaster point drop-off.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 5:29 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Lance, fantasy football is about as scientific as betting on NFL games. You can do all your homework, know the teams inside and out, know all the betting trends and still lose money throughout the year. Even in that "hobby" where you have a 50-50 chance, crazy things happen and your skill isn't rewarded. Fantasy football is the same beast because the NFL is such an unpredictable beast.

Billy is right, over time you'll see many of the same passionate fantasy football owners excel in multiple leagues. There definitely is a skill to this game and some folks have it. But the tougher competition you seek, the harder it is for that skill to be marginally better than other peoples' skills. And some years, Lady Luck just isn't on your side. True, true, and true.

I honestly believe that's why I like it so much...BECAUSE it's so hard.

Sports betting, Poker, Fantasy Football, and Fantasy Baseball.

I agree with Mark that of these...fantasy baseball is the most scientific.

After baseball, I'd guess the other three have too many traps and bombs to be a winner in EVERY league, EVERY year...or every session, or every weekend.

I'd also agree that the elite find a way to rise to the top in a 5 year sample...and turn a profit.

It's so damn frustrating sometimes.

But I LOVE it!

TIME TO RE-THINK EVERYTHING!

~Lance

renman · Post by **renman** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 5:30 am

Let me chime in.. first, I think it is perfect the way it is.. 18 is ideal for this format.

I can look at this from a different perspective as well. If we increased to 20 man rosters these players would find their way on teams with limited strategy or preparation. Though I just saw it stated that Ward, Wynn, McDonald, Davis, etc would be "hidden gems" that the savvy owner would pick. In reality, the 19th and 20th rounds would be guys just shouting out whoever to fill out the remainder of their rosters with limited thought, so they can use their free drink tickets before the bar shuts down. Yes, some would take guys who might be in better situations to play if a guy or two got injured in front of them, but that is pure luck. Even rounds 14-18 at times are chaotic in that fantasy owners are just looking for warm bodies to fill out rosters. I do not see much hard core strategy going on in these rounds.

Having the extra players available on the free agent list adds TEAM MANAGEMENT into the equation of fantasy football success or failure. I personally think we currently have the right balance of value placed on the draft to fill out a certain size roster combined with the ability to improve your team via free agency AND have the skill to manage it well with matchups and bye weeks, etc..

Just my two cent.

By the way, if Snake thinks 40% of this is luck why would he tout his teams success so much? lol

[ October 01, 2007, 11:33 AM: Message edited by: renman ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 5:38 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
quote:True, true, and true.

I honestly believe that's why I like it so much...BECAUSE it's so hard.

Sports betting, Poker, Fantasy Football, and Fantasy Baseball.

I agree with Mark that of these...fantasy baseball is the most scientific.

After baseball, I'd guess the other three have too many traps and bombs to be a winner in EVERY league, EVERY year...or every session, or every weekend.

I'd also agree that the elite find a way to rise to the top in a 5 year sample...and turn a profit.

It's so damn frustrating sometimes.

But I LOVE it!

TIME TO RE-THINK EVERYTHING!

~Lance [/QB][/QUOTE]Agreed Lance. We do this because of the passion we have for this hobby and the CHALLENGE. We bet on NFL games because of the passion we have for the NFL and the CHALLENGE. We drink because.....okay, I'm getting of course. BECAUSE OF THE CHALLENGE!!

You're the ultimate competitor. That's why you love this stuff. It's also why you get so frustrated at this stuff. But we'd all have to agree that to win at this level, you need a solid mix of skill and luck. Hell, Rob Benetti will tell you that over and over again.

Fantasy baseball, with its marathon 26-week grind and 30-player rosters, is the ultimate skill fantasy sports game. No doubt about it. And guys like Shawn and Eddie and David DiDonato and many others have proven to be VERY skillful there. But again, it's a great CHALLENGE.

Good luck Lance and pick a winner in tonight's game. I'm 0-3 on MNF games, so don't ask for my advice there.

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 5:43 am

Originally posted by ultimatefantasyfootballcheatsheets:
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

2) A 14 team 18 man roster can be very unforgiving when trying to manage bye weeks and injuries I couldn't agree more with this! I think the roster is too limited for the league size. This only favors the less prepared as they now have equal chance to FAs once the season starts!!!

I'd love to see this increased going forward. [/QUOTE]Having run 14-team leagues since 1984, this theory seems correct, but isn't.

I've had rosters limits at 18, 20, and 21 over the years, and basically the "impact" type of FA out there now (maybe a Fargas, Graham, D.Ward etc.?) would be out there in a 20 limit league as about 95% of the extra roster spots go to filling bye week kickers, TE's and D/ST's ahead of there need, instead of the week of there need with 18.

You don't know who that impact FA is going to be in advance, they just pop up.

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 5:44 am

And... I'll end this debate....

I'll put $1000 on Childs in every league he plays in against Lance.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 5:48 am

Nah ufs, for me I won't pick up a bye week fillin for kicker, defense or te until the week I need it.

pizzatyme · Post by **pizzatyme** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 5:51 am

Originally posted by renman:
Let me chime in.. first, I think it is perfect the way it is.. 18 is ideal for this format.

I can look at this from a different perspective as well. If we increased to 20 man rosters these players would find their way on teams with limited strategy or preparation. Though I just saw it stated that Ward, Wynn, McDonald, Davis, etc would be "hidden gems" that the savvy owner would pick. In reality, the 19th and 20th rounds would be guys just shouting out whoever to fill out the remainder of their rosters with limited thought, so they can use their free drink tickets before the bar shuts down. Yes, some would take guys who might be in better situations to play if a guy or two got injured in front of them, but that is pure luck. Even rounds 14-18 at times are chaotic in that fantasy owners are just looking for warm bodies to fill out rosters. I do not see much hard core strategy going on in these rounds.

Having the extra players available on the free agent list adds TEAM MANAGEMENT into the equation of fantasy football success or failure. I personally think we currently have the right balance of value placed on the draft to fill out a certain size roster combined with the ability to improve your team via free agency AND have the skill to manage it well with matchups and bye weeks, etc..

Just my two cent.

By the way, if Snake thinks 40% of this is luck why would he tout his teams success so much? lol Renman, I'm not trying to belabor the point here, but would you not agree with an 18 man roster, an owner is more likely to pick the guy who can provide points today, rather than an upside guy like Derrick Ward, Shaun MacDonald or Sam Hurd?

Maybe an owner has invested the time to find guys like this who could provide points, but doesn't have the roster space to secure him?

Not everyone goes to the draft thinking of which beer they're going to get with their free tickets.

14 team/18 man rosters FORCE one to be good AND lucky IMHO.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 5:52 am

Let's not forget...a significant factor of your success or lackthereof is which owners are in your league...something u have no control over.

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 5:52 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Nah ufs, for me I won't pick up a bye week fillin for kicker, defense or te until the week I need it. maybe, or maybe not when you see that the picking for those are much slimmer...

Right now there are decent enough FA TE's, K and D to pick up for a bye... take about 7-8 of them out in each (21-24 of 28 extra FA's) and you might rethink this..

I'm at 21 right now, and the D's and K's are all really bad. There are decent TE's like NFFC though.