Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
LANCE THAT WAS A GREAT RESPONSE. IT IS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING I COULD ADD TO THAT. YOU HIT ALL THE NAILS ON THE HEAD.
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King of Queens
- Posts: 5262
- Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 6:00 pm
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by KOTRAX:
I AM JUST WAITING FOR THE WRITE UP COMPARING FOOTBALL VERSUS BASEBALL BY G.G.
I AM SURE IT IS GOING TO BE QUITE INTERESTING. You must have missed it -- Page 3 of the thread. Here's the post:
Originally posted by Gekko:
The average “mentality” of high stakes fantasy football player vs the high stakes fantasy baseball player based on my experiences playing both sports:
Football
***We want a H2H format because it makes the contest FUN.
[Gekko aside: H2H has proven to be one of the biggest “luck” variables in fantasy football. There’s a reason why the NFFC has changed its league payouts through the years. Remember back in 2004 when they blindly awarded the $5,000 league title to the team with the best H2H record? Since that point, the league title is now a playoff between the team with the best record and the team with the most points team. ALSO, if you rank in the Top 10% of point scoring teams, you make the Championship round. IN ADDITION, the 3rd place team (next best points team) makes the Championship round. H2H is the foundation of FF, yet Greg and the players here (including me) are doing everything they can to sweep H2H under the rug at season’s end and go by total points]
***We want the largest money winners to be based primarily on a qualified three week sprint.
[Gekko aside: Doesn’t NASCAR do this to? LOL! Anything can happen over a three week timeline. However, most players don’t care how much luck is involved; they just want to have a “shot” at winning]
Baseball
***We want a ROTO format because the BEST TEAM ALWAYS WINS.
[Gekko aside: Since there is no H2H component or “three week sprint”, the best team always wins their league. There’s no “lifting the rug and sweeping” at season’s end because of H2H inadequacies. Baseball owners playing “hurt players” affect all owners the same, unlike in football where active “bye week players” and active “hurt players” only affect the opposing team]
***We want the largest money winners to be based on the entire season.
[Gekko aside: Over the course of the baseball season, I estimate the players on my team play around 2,270 games (1,960 for hitters, 210 for SP, and 100 for RP)...meaning my success/failure is based on 2,270 games played. In football, my team plays 160 games over the course of the season…again; my success/failure is based on those 160 games. And for the three week sprint in football (when the largest prize winners are determined), my team plays a total of 30 games. So 2,270 games vs 160 games (or some may see it as 30 games) to determine the grand prizes. Nag – you were saying something about short run (small sample sizes) vs long run (large sample sizes)?]
Don’t get me wrong. I play fantasy football, even with what I think about it (need tax write-offs). I just don’t walk around kidding myself about what it takes to be successful at it. That’s something a biased person would do, like I was in 2004. Thankfully, I evolved. Enjoy!
I AM JUST WAITING FOR THE WRITE UP COMPARING FOOTBALL VERSUS BASEBALL BY G.G.
I AM SURE IT IS GOING TO BE QUITE INTERESTING. You must have missed it -- Page 3 of the thread. Here's the post:
Originally posted by Gekko:
The average “mentality” of high stakes fantasy football player vs the high stakes fantasy baseball player based on my experiences playing both sports:
Football
***We want a H2H format because it makes the contest FUN.
[Gekko aside: H2H has proven to be one of the biggest “luck” variables in fantasy football. There’s a reason why the NFFC has changed its league payouts through the years. Remember back in 2004 when they blindly awarded the $5,000 league title to the team with the best H2H record? Since that point, the league title is now a playoff between the team with the best record and the team with the most points team. ALSO, if you rank in the Top 10% of point scoring teams, you make the Championship round. IN ADDITION, the 3rd place team (next best points team) makes the Championship round. H2H is the foundation of FF, yet Greg and the players here (including me) are doing everything they can to sweep H2H under the rug at season’s end and go by total points]
***We want the largest money winners to be based primarily on a qualified three week sprint.
[Gekko aside: Doesn’t NASCAR do this to? LOL! Anything can happen over a three week timeline. However, most players don’t care how much luck is involved; they just want to have a “shot” at winning]
Baseball
***We want a ROTO format because the BEST TEAM ALWAYS WINS.
[Gekko aside: Since there is no H2H component or “three week sprint”, the best team always wins their league. There’s no “lifting the rug and sweeping” at season’s end because of H2H inadequacies. Baseball owners playing “hurt players” affect all owners the same, unlike in football where active “bye week players” and active “hurt players” only affect the opposing team]
***We want the largest money winners to be based on the entire season.
[Gekko aside: Over the course of the baseball season, I estimate the players on my team play around 2,270 games (1,960 for hitters, 210 for SP, and 100 for RP)...meaning my success/failure is based on 2,270 games played. In football, my team plays 160 games over the course of the season…again; my success/failure is based on those 160 games. And for the three week sprint in football (when the largest prize winners are determined), my team plays a total of 30 games. So 2,270 games vs 160 games (or some may see it as 30 games) to determine the grand prizes. Nag – you were saying something about short run (small sample sizes) vs long run (large sample sizes)?]
Don’t get me wrong. I play fantasy football, even with what I think about it (need tax write-offs). I just don’t walk around kidding myself about what it takes to be successful at it. That’s something a biased person would do, like I was in 2004. Thankfully, I evolved. Enjoy!
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
THANKS GLENN I JUST READ ABOUT 15 MINUTES AGO AND I AGREE WITH LANCE'S RESPONSE A 100%
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Gordon Gekko II
- Posts: 647
- Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 6:00 pm
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
quote:Originally posted by Gekko:
The average “mentality” of high stakes fantasy football player vs the high stakes fantasy baseball player based on my experiences playing both sports:
Football
***We want a H2H format because it makes the contest FUN.
[Gekko aside: H2H has proven to be one of the biggest “luck” variables in fantasy football. There’s a reason why the NFFC has changed its league payouts through the years. Remember back in 2004 when they blindly awarded the $5,000 league title to the team with the best H2H record? Since that point, the league title is now a playoff between the team with the best record and the team with the most points team. ALSO, if you rank in the Top 10% of point scoring teams, you make the Championship round. IN ADDITION, the 3rd place team (next best points team) makes the Championship round. H2H is the foundation of FF, yet Greg and the players here (including me) are doing everything they can to sweep H2H under the rug at season’s end and go by total points]
***We want the largest money winners to be based primarily on a qualified three week sprint.
[Gekko aside: Doesn’t NASCAR do this to? LOL! Anything can happen over a three week timeline. However, most players don’t care how much luck is involved; they just want to have a “shot” at winning]
Baseball
***We want a ROTO format because the BEST TEAM ALWAYS WINS.
[Gekko aside: Since there is no H2H component or “three week sprint”, the best team always wins their league. There’s no “lifting the rug and sweeping” at season’s end because of H2H inadequacies. Baseball owners playing “hurt players” affect all owners the same, unlike in football where active “bye week players” and active “hurt players” only affect the opposing team]
***We want the largest money winners to be based on the entire season.
[Gekko aside: Over the course of the baseball season, I estimate the players on my team play around 2,270 games (1,960 for hitters, 210 for SP, and 100 for RP)...meaning my success/failure is based on 2,270 games played. In football, my team plays 160 games over the course of the season…again; my success/failure is based on those 160 games. And for the three week sprint in football (when the largest prize winners are determined), my team plays a total of 30 games. So 2,270 games vs 160 games (or some may see it as 30 games) to determine the grand prizes. Nag – you were saying something about short run (small sample sizes) vs long run (large sample sizes)?]
Don’t get me wrong. I play fantasy football, even with what I think about it (need tax write-offs). I just don’t walk around kidding myself about what it takes to be successful at it. That’s something a biased person would do, like I was in 2004. Thankfully, I evolved. Enjoy! Baseball's "FUN" comes from the enjoyment of having from a bunch, to a ton of game "action" to watch/follow each day. Heck...folks whine when there aren't any DAY GAMES schduled on a given day. The action is awesome.
I guarantee you that if MLB baseball was played only on Sundays, and a sprinkle of games on Monday night(for 16 weeks)...and there were no games TUE/WED/THU/FRI/SAT...that it also would fail as a roto game. Roto baseball is a much more "fair" setup and tells a better "skill tale" due to so many more games played during a season. (not to mention bigger rosters)
Having to wait all week for action, AND having it roto/all play/total points is a complete bore. Not to mention you can see the difference in "football fan" and "baseball fan" by going to a game live. Totally different game, totally different mindset, and very different fan.
Winning games is paramount in football...winning games in baseball is not, as there will be 160 more games to win, should you lose today. I actually believe THAT is what makes football so enjoyable...the pressure of winning each game. It's like baseball's post season, where wins DO matter...but it's like that all season long. I think THAT is what makes H2H so important in this completely different sport...THE WIN!
When I settle in on Sunday morning, ready for battle...I could care less what the rest of my league does that day...let alone the other leagues. My focus is on my opponent that week...the enemy. I'll hit the waiver wire in ways to c-block my opponent, I'll voodoo curse his players, I'll print out his roster, or program it into DirecTV to see how the battle is going. At the end of the weekend...my only concern is a win or loss. If my scores are high...even better, but it's all about winning that week to me. If my team did enough to make the post season (my goal)...awesome...even more excitement. If not...damn...better luck next year. Why should I woory about everyone else's team?
The gladiator arena of football is nothing like the falling asleep on the couch of baseball. [/QUOTE]This is a very fine post of which I'm in 100% agreement. [/QUOTE]i agree as well. different mindsets for different sports.
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
quote:Originally posted by Gekko:
The average “mentality” of high stakes fantasy football player vs the high stakes fantasy baseball player based on my experiences playing both sports:
Football
***We want a H2H format because it makes the contest FUN.
[Gekko aside: H2H has proven to be one of the biggest “luck” variables in fantasy football. There’s a reason why the NFFC has changed its league payouts through the years. Remember back in 2004 when they blindly awarded the $5,000 league title to the team with the best H2H record? Since that point, the league title is now a playoff between the team with the best record and the team with the most points team. ALSO, if you rank in the Top 10% of point scoring teams, you make the Championship round. IN ADDITION, the 3rd place team (next best points team) makes the Championship round. H2H is the foundation of FF, yet Greg and the players here (including me) are doing everything they can to sweep H2H under the rug at season’s end and go by total points]
***We want the largest money winners to be based primarily on a qualified three week sprint.
[Gekko aside: Doesn’t NASCAR do this to? LOL! Anything can happen over a three week timeline. However, most players don’t care how much luck is involved; they just want to have a “shot” at winning]
Baseball
***We want a ROTO format because the BEST TEAM ALWAYS WINS.
[Gekko aside: Since there is no H2H component or “three week sprint”, the best team always wins their league. There’s no “lifting the rug and sweeping” at season’s end because of H2H inadequacies. Baseball owners playing “hurt players” affect all owners the same, unlike in football where active “bye week players” and active “hurt players” only affect the opposing team]
***We want the largest money winners to be based on the entire season.
[Gekko aside: Over the course of the baseball season, I estimate the players on my team play around 2,270 games (1,960 for hitters, 210 for SP, and 100 for RP)...meaning my success/failure is based on 2,270 games played. In football, my team plays 160 games over the course of the season…again; my success/failure is based on those 160 games. And for the three week sprint in football (when the largest prize winners are determined), my team plays a total of 30 games. So 2,270 games vs 160 games (or some may see it as 30 games) to determine the grand prizes. Nag – you were saying something about short run (small sample sizes) vs long run (large sample sizes)?]
Don’t get me wrong. I play fantasy football, even with what I think about it (need tax write-offs). I just don’t walk around kidding myself about what it takes to be successful at it. That’s something a biased person would do, like I was in 2004. Thankfully, I evolved. Enjoy! Baseball's "FUN" comes from the enjoyment of having from a bunch, to a ton of game "action" to watch/follow each day. Heck...folks whine when there aren't any DAY GAMES schduled on a given day. The action is awesome.
I guarantee you that if MLB baseball was played only on Sundays, and a sprinkle of games on Monday night(for 16 weeks)...and there were no games TUE/WED/THU/FRI/SAT...that it also would fail as a roto game. Roto baseball is a much more "fair" setup and tells a better "skill tale" due to so many more games played during a season. (not to mention bigger rosters)
Having to wait all week for action, AND having it roto/all play/total points is a complete bore. Not to mention you can see the difference in "football fan" and "baseball fan" by going to a game live. Totally different game, totally different mindset, and very different fan.
Winning games is paramount in football...winning games in baseball is not, as there will be 160 more games to win, should you lose today. I actually believe THAT is what makes football so enjoyable...the pressure of winning each game. It's like baseball's post season, where wins DO matter...but it's like that all season long. I think THAT is what makes H2H so important in this completely different sport...THE WIN!
When I settle in on Sunday morning, ready for battle...I could care less what the rest of my league does that day...let alone the other leagues. My focus is on my opponent that week...the enemy. I'll hit the waiver wire in ways to c-block my opponent, I'll voodoo curse his players, I'll print out his roster, or program it into DirecTV to see how the battle is going. At the end of the weekend...my only concern is a win or loss. If my scores are high...even better, but it's all about winning that week to me. If my team did enough to make the post season (my goal)...awesome...even more excitement. If not...damn...better luck next year. Why should I woory about everyone else's team?
The gladiator arena of football is nothing like the falling asleep on the couch of baseball. [/QUOTE]This is a very fine post of which I'm in 100% agreement. [/QUOTE]i agree as well. different mindsets for different sports.
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Route Collectors
- Posts: 3525
- Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 6:00 pm
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
I always wonder why these threads lack substance. There are numerous comparisons to other things..i.e. poker etc. but not much about what this hobby consists of.
BTW speaking of poker it's kind of amazing that Phil Ivy has made his very 1st WSOP final table.....and all along I thought he was a skillful player! (cheap jab)
Seriously though. How about some posts about what is skillful in FF. I'll throw out a few and you can respond as to whether it's skillful or not:
-Reading previous stats
-Reading FF mags
-Joining a FF pay site
-Reading material from experts in any forum
-Projecting your own player #'s
-Avoiding confrontation with the wife over obsession with FF
If any of the above is skill based then why do you do mock drafts!
I don't care what the ratio is...I still love this silly hobby.
BTW speaking of poker it's kind of amazing that Phil Ivy has made his very 1st WSOP final table.....and all along I thought he was a skillful player! (cheap jab)
Seriously though. How about some posts about what is skillful in FF. I'll throw out a few and you can respond as to whether it's skillful or not:
-Reading previous stats
-Reading FF mags
-Joining a FF pay site
-Reading material from experts in any forum
-Projecting your own player #'s
-Avoiding confrontation with the wife over obsession with FF
If any of the above is skill based then why do you do mock drafts!
I don't care what the ratio is...I still love this silly hobby.
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Gordon Gekko II
- Posts: 647
- Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 6:00 pm
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by da bears:
No blackberry anymore. I don't think I could live without mine. matt - i gave mine up LAST year. when i found myself checking boxscores while i was driving, i knew i had a problem
No blackberry anymore. I don't think I could live without mine.
matt - i gave mine up LAST year. when i found myself checking boxscores while i was driving, i knew i had a problem -
Gordon Gekko II
- Posts: 647
- Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 6:00 pm
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by Route C:
Seriously though. How about some posts about what is skillful in FF. getting Moats for $1 tonight?
Seriously though. How about some posts about what is skillful in FF. getting Moats for $1 tonight?
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by Route C:
Seriously though. How about some posts about what is skillful in FF. I'll throw out a few and you can respond as to whether it's skillful or not:
-Reading previous stats
-Reading FF mags
-Joining a FF pay site
-Reading material from experts in any forum
-Projecting your own player #'s
-Avoiding confrontation with the wife over obsession with FF
The only one is the last one, and I am "close" to perfecting that one.
Here are some things in fantasy football that I think are based on AMOUNT OF TIME (which could help lead to more success)....
1) Crunching LOTS of numbers of data
2) Reading as much as you can in the offseason
3) Studying mock drafts and ADP to have a general view of where players are being taken
While none of those I would consider "skills", if one person puts in a lot of time, and another doesn't, the person who does will MORE THAN LIKELY have an edge.
Here are some things which could be considered SKILLS....
1) Managing your FAAB effectively, and being able to foresee a possible future "producer" on your team (maybe because the starter in front of him has a minor injury, the coach mentioned he might be more involved in coming weeks, etc.)
2) Being able to see what you did right and wrong in past drafts. And not falling into those same traps again.
3) Being able to "read between the lines". Like with stockbrokers, etc. they use all the information at hand to make good "educated guesses". I truly believe some people have it, and some people don't.
While there is probably something I am missing, I think it takes many of the AMOUNT OF TIME PUT IN FACTORS along with the SKILLS to be a decent fantasy player.
Just like with say a stockbroker (which is similar to what we do, as we to are trying to predict the future based on past trends, data,etc.) NO ONE is going to get them all right. However the best combine their TIME with their SKILLS to be successful.
I think the word SKILL gets thrown around too much (like Shawn Childs mentioned), and it is mistakenly paired with PERFECT or ALL THE TIME (when it pertains to fantasy football). While a kicker has the skills to make a 40 yard field goal 5 of 5 times, he might miss #'s 6 and 7 due to a "mistake" in his prep, bad weather (a little bad luck perhaps
) etc.
That's just me spitballing. Now I gotta go whip my daughter in Wii baseball!
Seriously though. How about some posts about what is skillful in FF. I'll throw out a few and you can respond as to whether it's skillful or not:
-Reading previous stats
-Reading FF mags
-Joining a FF pay site
-Reading material from experts in any forum
-Projecting your own player #'s
-Avoiding confrontation with the wife over obsession with FF
The only one is the last one, and I am "close" to perfecting that one.
Here are some things in fantasy football that I think are based on AMOUNT OF TIME (which could help lead to more success)....
1) Crunching LOTS of numbers of data
2) Reading as much as you can in the offseason
3) Studying mock drafts and ADP to have a general view of where players are being taken
While none of those I would consider "skills", if one person puts in a lot of time, and another doesn't, the person who does will MORE THAN LIKELY have an edge.
Here are some things which could be considered SKILLS....
1) Managing your FAAB effectively, and being able to foresee a possible future "producer" on your team (maybe because the starter in front of him has a minor injury, the coach mentioned he might be more involved in coming weeks, etc.)
2) Being able to see what you did right and wrong in past drafts. And not falling into those same traps again.
3) Being able to "read between the lines". Like with stockbrokers, etc. they use all the information at hand to make good "educated guesses". I truly believe some people have it, and some people don't.
While there is probably something I am missing, I think it takes many of the AMOUNT OF TIME PUT IN FACTORS along with the SKILLS to be a decent fantasy player.
Just like with say a stockbroker (which is similar to what we do, as we to are trying to predict the future based on past trends, data,etc.) NO ONE is going to get them all right. However the best combine their TIME with their SKILLS to be successful.
I think the word SKILL gets thrown around too much (like Shawn Childs mentioned), and it is mistakenly paired with PERFECT or ALL THE TIME (when it pertains to fantasy football). While a kicker has the skills to make a 40 yard field goal 5 of 5 times, he might miss #'s 6 and 7 due to a "mistake" in his prep, bad weather (a little bad luck perhaps
) etc.That's just me spitballing. Now I gotta go whip my daughter in Wii baseball!
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sportsbettingman
- Posts: 1805
- Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:00 pm
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by BillyWaz:
Now I gotta go whip my daughter in Wii baseball! If you haven't already...get the game "Wii Resort"...it comes with two controller extensions valued at $40! The game rocks, and the extensions make the controller way better!
Now I gotta go whip my daughter in Wii baseball!
If you haven't already...get the game "Wii Resort"...it comes with two controller extensions valued at $40! The game rocks, and the extensions make the controller way better!"The first man what makes a move can count amongst 'is treasure a ball from this pistol."
~Long John Silver
~Long John Silver
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Shrink Attack
- Posts: 1802
- Joined: Sat May 27, 2006 6:00 pm
- Location: Memphis, TN
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
quote:Originally posted by BillyWaz:
Now I gotta go whip my daughter in Wii baseball! If you haven't already...get the game "Wii Resort"...it comes with two controller extensions valued at $40! The game rocks, and the extensions make the controller way better! [/QUOTE]Funny, because I play my son in all the Wii sports (I like Wii golf the best), but recently I dusted off my old Foosball table and that's all he wants to play now...the old stuff is still pretty good, and there's nothing like some real live action.
For instance...I wouldn't mind a game of good old fashion electric football right now!
Need to go on ebay and find one...
Here we go... http://cgi.ebay.com/70s-Vintage-Tudor-E ... 25571bea22
And some live action... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjFXnJc0Q0U
[ November 06, 2009, 06:46 PM: Message edited by: Shrink Attack ]
quote:Originally posted by BillyWaz:
Now I gotta go whip my daughter in Wii baseball!
If you haven't already...get the game "Wii Resort"...it comes with two controller extensions valued at $40! The game rocks, and the extensions make the controller way better! [/QUOTE]Funny, because I play my son in all the Wii sports (I like Wii golf the best), but recently I dusted off my old Foosball table and that's all he wants to play now...the old stuff is still pretty good, and there's nothing like some real live action.For instance...I wouldn't mind a game of good old fashion electric football right now!
Need to go on ebay and find one...
Here we go... http://cgi.ebay.com/70s-Vintage-Tudor-E ... 25571bea22
And some live action... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjFXnJc0Q0U
[ November 06, 2009, 06:46 PM: Message edited by: Shrink Attack ]
"Deserve" ain't got nothin' to do with it
---Clint Eastwood in The Unforgiven
---Clint Eastwood in The Unforgiven