FF is a science...

FIGHTINGNOLES · Post by **FIGHTINGNOLES** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 11:39 am

Originally posted by UFS:
quote:Originally posted by ultimatefantasyfootballcheatsheets:
I'm curious, who will you be dropping in advance to get your BYE week fill-ins? M. Smith and B. Calhoun? I mean these guys you picked up to prepare for injuries, no?

[/QUOTE]I picked these guys as fliers foremost, and as bye week RB depth was thin after the draft. Basically it was my only need after the draft.

I picked up Calhoun just in case K.Jones re injured himself. Total flier and easily waiveable.
Fliers that don't pan out are only valuable to those that predict fliers for the future.

There are 5 bye week TE's I can get for a $1. I don't care which one and he will be waived next week for a def Week 8. Kasay also goes now or after Week 6. There are 14 FA k's right now.

Mcgahee has had injuries and M.Smith could pan out if I get lucky there. I waive M.Smith the last week of FA's or if someone dramatically better pops up.

If S.Jax is out until Week 7, the B.Leonard pick will pan out for me on LT and ML byes Wk 6/7.

Speaking of Lynch... where are the naysayers now? Consistent 13.7 is exactly what I wanted from him and he plays MIA(#32)/CLE(#30)/NYG(#14) weeks 14-16. [/quote]

Exactly, Lynch has been very productive so far, especially compared to his preseason performance. YOUR team (& perhaps your stance on roster size) would look a WHOLE lot different if Lynch got hurt & not SJax in Week 3...

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 11:55 am

Originally posted by FIGHTINGNOLES:
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
quote:Originally posted by ultimatefantasyfootballcheatsheets:
I'm curious, who will you be dropping in advance to get your BYE week fill-ins? M. Smith and B. Calhoun? I mean these guys you picked up to prepare for injuries, no?

[/QUOTE]I picked these guys as fliers foremost, and as bye week RB depth was thin after the draft. Basically it was my only need after the draft.

I picked up Calhoun just in case K.Jones re injured himself. Total flier and easily waiveable.
Fliers that don't pan out are only valuable to those that predict fliers for the future.

There are 5 bye week TE's I can get for a $1. I don't care which one and he will be waived next week for a def Week 8. Kasay also goes now or after Week 6. There are 14 FA k's right now.

Mcgahee has had injuries and M.Smith could pan out if I get lucky there. I waive M.Smith the last week of FA's or if someone dramatically better pops up.

If S.Jax is out until Week 7, the B.Leonard pick will pan out for me on LT and ML byes Wk 6/7.

Speaking of Lynch... where are the naysayers now? Consistent 13.7 is exactly what I wanted from him and he plays MIA(#32)/CLE(#30)/NYG(#14) weeks 14-16. [/QUOTE]Exactly, Lynch has been very productive so far, especially compared to his preseason performance. YOUR team (& perhaps your stance on roster size) would look a WHOLE lot different if Lynch got hurt & not SJax in Week 3... [/quote]

1. Exhibition stats are meaningless more and more every year and I have not factored them in one ioat since about 1988. I watched, read about 3minutes of pre season info this year. And I'll let Greg tell you when I started preparing this year. LOL.

I went back to what worked for me best 10 years ago when i did much better, and thanks to Jules, she reminded me that target drafting works much better.

2. I have 911 FAAB left and plenty of room to pick up the RB of the week, especially last week. W/O a huge need right now, I took a stab at a few at "my" price last week. When I "need" a guy, I will get him for sure.

3. My stance on roster size has to do with running 40-50 14-team leagues per year since 1984 and all the dynamics that come with it. It has nothing to do with my lack of injuries this year and I would have the exact same arguments from the year where six of my top 10 went down by Week 2 a few years back. Severe injuries hit every owner about every 5-6 years of play. Adding two spots for incredibly crappy players isn't going to help this. Picking up the best FA the next week will.

In this vain, my stance is exactly the same on 3rr drafting from #1 this year as it was drafting #14 last year.

GG has never accused me of waffling. LOL.

[ October 01, 2007, 05:57 PM: Message edited by: UFS ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 12:13 pm

ufs, i do have a tip or two for you, but rather not post publicly. you interested?

Mike Costaglio · Post by **Mike Costaglio** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 pm

Greg,
In order to take advantage of the science involved in fantasy football is it possible to market and expand the auction leagues to a multi-city second main event with an overall grand prize? I think that most would agree that Auction drafts require an entirely different thought process, risk taking, creativity and approach to the draft.

I am curious if anybody else agrees that it would be great to have a couple of hundred auction teams competing for league payouts and a grand prize?

Each year the main event draft become more predictable, especially during the first seven to eight rounds. The main event draft has evolved to the point that we could post the NFFC satellite draft ADP for the first seven rounds and begin the live draft with round eight.

I know that as soon as I post this some is going to point out that a particular player or players moved up or down a couple of spots vs. the ADP, and I agree that there a few surprises vs. the ADP. I will also agree that drafts in some leagues are unpredictable because of the make-up of the "drafters". I also realize that there will be the argument that different draft strategies (RB, RB or WR, WR, etc.), will have some impact, however the outcome of the actual draft in most leagues support an orderly draft vs. the ADP.

Although these tendencies will continue there is no doubt that each year will we all continue watch the countdown clock for the main event. Like most of you I will continue to compete in this format and watch the clock countdown because like most of you I am also hooked. I will send in my check and convince myself that my science for the new season will be better and I will be lucky, this time.

What is the chance that we can field a major Auction event?

renman · Post by **renman** » Tue Oct 02, 2007 12:53 am

Mike,

I brought up the same thing last year. All serious fantasy players seem to prefer the auction style of play and feel it is the best format. I simply asked if it would ever be "somehow possible down the road" to have a major multi-city event using auction style formats. I was told immediately it "would not work" and no discussion happened.

I am sure Greg will chime in, but I would assume that most are used to the classic snake drafting style and to keep the event filled and grow it we would have to stick with the format that most are comfortable with. As the NFFC steadily grows I could see someday down the road where enough interest in auction formats could result in an event like you are talking about.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Oct 02, 2007 2:31 am

Originally posted by Mike Costaglio:
What is the chance that we can field a major Auction event? Well, I'd certainly do it if I felt the demand was there Mike. To create something like this, however, someone like myself would have to guarantee a grand prize based on the number of entries I felt I could get and then do everything to fill it. Right now, we struggle to get 4-5 auction leagues among the four cities and one of those inevitably is a teleconference league. Most are at $650 per league and to create a worthy grand prize we'd obviously have to raise that to $1,000 or more.

If the demand is there, I'll run it. But I'm not convinced the demand for a national fantasy football auction league is there yet for a game operator to guarantee the funds to such a thing. It's too risky.

Mike Costaglio · Post by **Mike Costaglio** » Tue Oct 02, 2007 4:56 am

Greg, thanks for the input. I understand your position, the risk, and of course the fact that the existing main event is successful. I do think that among the hardcore FF players that there is a growing demand for a more competitive format. Remember back when it was difficult to find a fantasy magazine at the bookstore, and then it seemed like overnight FF took off. You get the sense over the last couple of years that the auction format is gaining popularity and it is ready to explode. I also believe that the first National competition that steps up to the auction format will win. Start small if needed but lets be the first National Auction Event.

pizzatyme · Post by **pizzatyme** » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:09 am

Mike makes a GREAT point!

Why not just make the Auctions in each city a National contest? Pay overall point champ 20% and then the rest goes into the Championship round. Then, pay the top 4 places or so in that round. You could still have some nice prizes!!!

Then you don't have to guarantee anything. Maybe you could poll the Auction participants in this year's event to see their take? Just a thought.