Post
by RiFF » Thu May 22, 2008 1:44 am
Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
Assuming a sell out of both events, without factoring in skill level, the odds of a person winning both events is about 155,000-1. Let's assume only 100 participants have a "reasonable" chance of winning either event; which I do not believe is the case. The odds of each of those 100 winning both events is still 10,000-1
And although I do believe there is some skill involved; this isn't rocket science and a player doesn't need a doctorate degree from MIT to win one of these events.
20 or 30-1 ...wow. Riff, the odds of singling out any player in advance to win both would be 10,000 to one, but the odds of "someone" winning both is still just 100-1 (i.e., 10,000/100) in your scenario above.
If you also assume there is some overlap of luck/skill of drafting key players in a particular season (which I would argue there is) - then the odds of that NFFC winner also winning a second contest would be greater than average among those 100 good players, thus the odds would have to be less than 100-1. But I do agree with you that handicapping it at 20/30-1 is a big stretch. [/QUOTE]Kevin, I agree that its probable that some contestants have a better chance of winning than others, but I believe almost all contestants have some chance of winning.
Even the most unprepared contestant has probably at least glanced through the magazines Greg has provided. After all, everyone has to pony up $1300. to enter one of these contests, which makes me believe virtually every contestant has at least a pretty good basic working knowledge. And generally the more successful one has been in life is a reflection of their competitiveness. So, I don't buy into the concept that only a select few have a reasonable chance of winning one of these contests.
With only the highest regard for 2007's champions, according to Tom's write-up, they only started playing FF in 2005 and last year was their 1st year in the high stakes arena. I'd guess they would have been fairly low on the tote board at the beginning of last year based on their previous performance. Again, this stuff isn't rocket science. Anyone putting in a little bit of preparation, and with a bit of previous experience, has about as good a chance of winning as anyone else in this serpentine (3RR) draft set up.
Also, because one contest is a 14 team format and one is a 12 team format; I believe the ability to successfully draft similar competitive teams is lessened. By attempting to draft similar temas one MAY marginally increase their chances of winning both contests, but I believe they probably have also decreased their chances of winnning either contest.
But, you're absolutely correct, if you assume there are only 100 contestants with a chance of winning; then every year there will be a 1 in 100 chance of someone winning both. I don't believe that's the case, and even if it were, that's a far cry from 1 in 20 or 1 in 30.
And of course the Insurance Company can make any projection they see fit; but that projection is profit based not reality based.
[ May 22, 2008, 07:53 AM: Message edited by: RiFF ]
[/QUOTE]I guess I just don't understand that logic...36 to 1 or 37 to one paying 500 to 1 is a sweet play. I'd have to take it and would be slapping a buddy silly if he didn't! 
