Live Chat With Greg A. Wednesday, 11 AM EST

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Thu May 22, 2008 11:00 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
GREG- I'd be interested to hear what you think is a doable premium for the insurance...could you justify it as a marketing expense? If not, with prices already set, how would it be paid for if you did it this season? That's what we're looking into. Obviously it would be a marketing expense and an expense we'd eat as part of our partnership and plan to grow this area of our events. There are ways to justify it and ways to pay for it and we're working on all of that right now. It makes perfect sense for our two different formats, our two main events on the same day, and our passionate owners who seem to love the concept with a bonus prize.

So nothing will be announced soon because the price is not $1,000 or $5,000 or $10,000. If it was, I'd announce this promotion today. I spend more than that on magazine ads, so this insurance premium would be money well spent and would replace my other marketing plans. But it's more than that and thus we need to figure this all out.

But it's only May and we have time to do it. So stay tuned. [/QUOTE]Well, I'll say as someone who hasn't done a Live (travel) High Stakes draft in years the possibility of a 1 million $ prize is tempting and would make me consider getting off the couch and onto an airplane. No promises but I've got a goal to reach a million in total prize winnings one day and that would be quite the short cut.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Thu May 22, 2008 11:04 am

$27,500...Final answer!! Each event if full will have about 60 teams with a chance to win.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu May 22, 2008 11:08 am

Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
What fascinates me about this discussion is that some of the top players who have some pretty large egos are among those saying how this is such an incredible longshot. If the insurance company sees it that way ..all the better to make this happen...but I suppose I expected a different attitude/optimism among the NFFCs best. If this is a one-off and not part of an Insurance Relationship, which it appears to be, the only thing the Insurance Company is going to be concerned with is how big a profit they can make on the transaction. Because it's a one-off, the premium will have little correlation to risk. So the discussion about the inherent risk is irrelevant, it's purely a guessing game of how large a premium does the Insurance Company have the "balls" to ask for.

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Thu May 22, 2008 11:12 am

Actually...I can say.. if I heard in time to make all arangements of traveling that weekend a shot at 1 million would sway me. Too tempting to ignore...it would make me take the trip.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Thu May 22, 2008 11:13 am

Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
Actually...I can say.. if I heard in time to make all arangements of traveling that weekend a shot at 1 million would sway me. Too tempting to ignore...it would make me take the trip. Start packing!!

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Thu May 22, 2008 11:16 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:
quote:Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
Actually...I can say.. if I heard in time to make all arangements of traveling that weekend a shot at 1 million would sway me. Too tempting to ignore...it would make me take the trip. Start packing!! [/QUOTE]

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Thu May 22, 2008 11:19 am

Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:
quote:Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
Actually...I can say.. if I heard in time to make all arangements of traveling that weekend a shot at 1 million would sway me. Too tempting to ignore...it would make me take the trip. Start packing!! [/QUOTE] [/QUOTE]Will you tell your wife about the insurance money?

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Thu May 22, 2008 11:23 am

Yep, I'd have to justify traveling without her somehow.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu May 22, 2008 11:23 am

Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
Actually...I can say.. if I heard in time to make all arrangements of traveling that weekend a shot at 1 million would sway me. Too tempting to ignore...it would make me take the trip. So you've never traveled to a high stakes draft...yet you can magically come up with around $3500.00 to do so due to an uber-long-shot marketing tag line?

WOW!

~Lance

mikeybok · Post by **mikeybok** » Thu May 22, 2008 11:24 am

Assuming both contests have 396 players.

The odds of any one person winning both contests is 1 in 156,816 to one.

Odds are 1 of 1 someone will win the contest with the smallest number of entrants. The odds of that person winning the other is 1 in 396 (if they are in it). True odds with insurance should cost 2,526.26.

Assuming only half the players are crossover players (in both contests) ... the odds jump to 1 in 1584 (making the True odds cost of insurance only $631.57).

Since these events are not everyone has the same chance of winning and one person might tend to select the same upside players in both leagues (plus the difference in skill) ... the odds goes up that winning both contests happens (risk to the insurance company goes up).

With the above in mind ... I figured the odds were 1 in 250 assuming 198 crossover players (true cost of insurance would be $4000.00). I figured the insurance company would charge triple that and charge 12,000.00 for taking that risk. If they assume all people are in both contests ... it makes sense to give a quote of 48,000.00 because the true odds are 4 times greater under that assumption as well ... but all 396 in both contests is a worse case assumption and too conservative.

It might be better to get a quote based on an actual number of crossover players. If only 20% of the people play in both contests ... it would drive the cost of insurance down dramatically as the true odds of someone winning both contests (all else being equal) would be 1 in 9,900 instead of 1 in 396. This is because there is a 96% chance that someone wins one of the contests thats not in the other contest under the 20% crossover senerio.

My two cents

My guess is still 12k based on 50% cross over players and the insurance company buying off on the 50% crossover concept?

[ May 22, 2008, 05:29 PM: Message edited by: Ugly Yellow Tomatoes ]