Live Chat With Greg A. Wednesday, 11 AM EST

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Fri May 23, 2008 1:25 am

Go Getta,

How did you do in other re-draft leagues last year? Rob in 2006 same question.

Inf4life · Post by **Inf4life** » Fri May 23, 2008 5:19 am

Originally posted by Raiders:
Go Getta,

How did you do in other re-draft leagues last year? Rob in 2006 same question. re-draft leagues??

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Fri May 23, 2008 5:24 am

Originally posted by Go Getta:
quote:Originally posted by Raiders:
Go Getta,

How did you do in other re-draft leagues last year? Rob in 2006 same question. re-draft leagues?? [/QUOTE]You won NFFC, did you play in any other re-draft Leagues. Leagues which draft from scratch? My point is, how did you do? Did you win your League? Did you make the playoffs? So on and on.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri May 23, 2008 6:57 am

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Raiders:
153,500 to 1. So the odds are good it won't happen at all. But you never know.

With each contest having wild cards, we're probably looking at something like 62 playoff teams in the NFFC and 74 playoff teams in the NBC FFC. Out of those teams, how many do you think will have duplicate owners? Do you think it's possible that 10 owners will make the Championship Round in each contest? 15? 20? 25? Maybe 30?
[/QUOTE]I think you may be underestimating how difficult these leagues are Greg.

In FOUR year in the 14-team NFFC, NO ONE has made it to the championship round all 4 years.

ONLY THREE people have made it 3 of 4 years.

Now, it SHOULD be easier to make the championship round in the 12-team NBC, as there are two less teams you have to beat.

HOWEVER, let's say you get in both. It isn't about ONLY beating all the people who got in both c-ship rounds, but you have to beat 50+ people in EACH event. These are the "best of the best" teams we are talking about here, not the weaker teams you defeated in order to win or have best total points in your league.

That all may sound pessimistic, but I am just being a realist here.

I feel my accomplishments in the first 4 years rank up there with the best in the NFFC, but this is a VERY tall order for anyone to achieve.

That all being said, I hope the insurance company isn't trying to rob you blind, as I think this would be HUGE to promote both of these events.

I know I for one would enjoy taking a shot at it, that is for sure!!!

[/QUOTE]Billy, I totally understand how difficult it is to win in back-to-back years. You have to hit right on certain players EACH YEAR to win back-to-back titles. I get it. It's hard, especially in 14-team leagues.

But I do think it's easier to be right in two different contests in THE SAME YEAR than it is to be right in TWO SEPARATE YEARS. Let's just look at last year, for instance. Let's say you were smart enough to target Brady, Moss, Adrian Peterson and Wes Welker last year. Let's say you also hit on Derek Anderson and Ryan Grant in free agency last year. And let's say you did that in BOTH leagues. Yes, it's tough, but it's probably easier to do that in two leagues rather than have everything break right for you in two straight years.

And again, having KDS/3RR may allow you to target certain players and have similar "sleeper" picks and stars. Not that you want to have duplicate teams, but if you target Wes Welker in one you're probably targeting him in the other, just a round or two later.

You are right on all of your points, but the past NFFC history is just a small insight into what could happen in our two events this year. Over time, we'll have a better understanding of how many people actually had the chance to win the bonus prize.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri May 23, 2008 7:00 am

Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
My guess is $15,000.

Odds guess: 1 in 20 years. Okay, it's the holiday weekend, so it's time to name a winner for the chicken dinner.

Paul Clein wins a free drink for getting half of the answer right. The insurance company is providing a quote based on one person winning both events in the same year once every 20 years. I'm not saying they believe that will happen, but it's the basis for their quote. So the answer is exactly as Paul guessed above: 1 in 20 years.

He gets no more reward though for his estimate on cost!!

It's too low. But great job Paul.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri May 23, 2008 7:05 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
[qb] my formal guess is 1 in 20 years? Cost = $70,000 GG wins a free drink only if he comes to Las Vegas in August!!

1 in 20 was correct. Cost is just a bit high, but in the ballpark. Thus we haven't pulled the trigger yet, but are looking at different options and different levels and different payouts. We have some work to do, but thankfully we have some time to figure it out.

Thanks for participating all. See, I knew these once-a-week meetings were therapeutical and informative. See ya next Wednesday.

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Fri May 23, 2008 7:48 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
My guess is $15,000.

Odds guess: 1 in 20 years. Okay, it's the holiday weekend, so it's time to name a winner for the chicken dinner.

Paul Clein wins a free drink for getting half of the answer right. The insurance company is providing a quote based on one person winning both events in the same year once every 20 years. I'm not saying they believe that will happen, but it's the basis for their quote. So the answer is exactly as Paul guessed above: 1 in 20 years.

He gets no more reward though for his estimate on cost!!

It's too low. But great job Paul. [/QUOTE]Wow, they are being ultra-conservative. I think that is an unrealistic number, but then most of us here know this game better than they do.

The cost based on 20 yrs should be around $62,500.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Fri May 23, 2008 7:49 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by BillyWaz:
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Raiders:
153,500 to 1. So the odds are good it won't happen at all. But you never know.

With each contest having wild cards, we're probably looking at something like 62 playoff teams in the NFFC and 74 playoff teams in the NBC FFC. Out of those teams, how many do you think will have duplicate owners? Do you think it's possible that 10 owners will make the Championship Round in each contest? 15? 20? 25? Maybe 30?
[/QUOTE]I think you may be underestimating how difficult these leagues are Greg.

In FOUR year in the 14-team NFFC, NO ONE has made it to the championship round all 4 years.

ONLY THREE people have made it 3 of 4 years.

Now, it SHOULD be easier to make the championship round in the 12-team NBC, as there are two less teams you have to beat.

HOWEVER, let's say you get in both. It isn't about ONLY beating all the people who got in both c-ship rounds, but you have to beat 50+ people in EACH event. These are the "best of the best" teams we are talking about here, not the weaker teams you defeated in order to win or have best total points in your league.

That all may sound pessimistic, but I am just being a realist here.

I feel my accomplishments in the first 4 years rank up there with the best in the NFFC, but this is a VERY tall order for anyone to achieve.

That all being said, I hope the insurance company isn't trying to rob you blind, as I think this would be HUGE to promote both of these events.

I know I for one would enjoy taking a shot at it, that is for sure!!!

[/QUOTE]Billy, I totally understand how difficult it is to win in back-to-back years. You have to hit right on certain players EACH YEAR to win back-to-back titles. I get it. It's hard, especially in 14-team leagues.

But I do think it's easier to be right in two different contests in THE SAME YEAR than it is to be right in TWO SEPARATE YEARS. Let's just look at last year, for instance. Let's say you were smart enough to target Brady, Moss, Adrian Peterson and Wes Welker last year. Let's say you also hit on Derek Anderson and Ryan Grant in free agency last year. And let's say you did that in BOTH leagues. Yes, it's tough, but it's probably easier to do that in two leagues rather than have everything break right for you in two straight years.

And again, having KDS/3RR may allow you to target certain players and have similar "sleeper" picks and stars. Not that you want to have duplicate teams, but if you target Wes Welker in one you're probably targeting him in the other, just a round or two later.

You are right on all of your points, but the past NFFC history is just a small insight into what could happen in our two events this year. Over time, we'll have a better understanding of how many people actually had the chance to win the bonus prize. [/QUOTE]I get what you are saying Greg, good points by you as well, as they are correct.

As far as the estimate, 1 in 20 years would be $50,000 in insurance for them to break even. Obviously they are going to want to make some money, so $63,000 sounds about right.

That seems like a lot, but offering the million dollars would most likely spark a HUGE interest, and I think people would come in droves.

Inf4life · Post by **Inf4life** » Fri May 23, 2008 8:05 am

Originally posted by Raiders:
quote:Originally posted by Go Getta:
quote:Originally posted by Raiders:
Go Getta,

How did you do in other re-draft leagues last year? Rob in 2006 same question. re-draft leagues?? [/QUOTE]You won NFFC, did you play in any other re-draft Leagues. Leagues which draft from scratch? My point is, how did you do? Did you win your League? Did you make the playoffs? So on and on. [/QUOTE]jeremy and I have a work league that we are in together against each other and I do random espn or cbs leagues but no other money leagues. I wanna say I came in top 3 in both locals that I did last year but im not entirely sure w/o checking. I jut don't see how guys can do so many leagues. it would be so hard for me to track. plus, if you have teams with completely different players who d you end up rooting for? I find it a lot simpler to just focus all my efforts into the main event and hope for the best. it was stressful enough with just that team. hahaha.

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Fri May 23, 2008 8:07 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
My guess is $15,000.

Odds guess: 1 in 20 years. Okay, it's the holiday weekend, so it's time to name a winner for the chicken dinner.

Paul Clein wins a free drink for getting half of the answer right. The insurance company is providing a quote based on one person winning both events in the same year once every 20 years. I'm not saying they believe that will happen, but it's the basis for their quote. So the answer is exactly as Paul guessed above: 1 in 20 years.

He gets no more reward though for his estimate on cost!!

It's too low. But great job Paul. [/QUOTE]Thanks, Greg, and make no mistake...I never forget when I'm owed a drink!