Here's Tom's FBG Team: Have At It

Two Red Ducks · Post by **Two Red Ducks** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:45 am

For the record, Wayne's stock has fallen in drafts due to the Manning health fears, so Wayne need not generate his recent year trend. He's pretty much fair value with where he is falling. I dont expect a Wayne collapse, just Garcon pushing his way to #1 on the team...Its very much like the Wayne/Harrison changing of the guard that occurred some years ago...

[ August 23, 2011, 05:46 PM: Message edited by: Two Red Ducks ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:07 pm

Originally posted by RiFF:
]LOL....you just don't get it. :rolleyes: Of course I do Rich. I simply disagree with you and I've pointed out why your analogy is seriously flawed. But I'm well aware of what you're trying to say and always have been. I just think you need to come up with a stronger analogy and better reasoning if you're going to project a massive decline in production for Wayne.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:12 pm

Originally posted by Two Red Ducks:
For the record, Wayne's stock has fallen in drafts due to the Manning health fears, so Wayne need not generate his recent year trend. He's pretty much fair value with where he is falling. I dont expect a Wayne collapse, just Garcon pushing his way to #1 on the team...Its very much like the Wayne/Harrison changing of the guard that occurred some years ago... I like Garcon a lot too. Keep in mind that in two of the last games the Colts played Wayne got locked down by Asomugha and Revis, two of the Top 3 cover corners in the game (I believe Revis is the best).

While I certainly agree that Wayne could decline this season (it's rather predictable unless you expect him to catch 111 passes again and I don't), I'm not sure I see Garcon moving past Wayne this season. Wayne wasn't able to pass Harrison until Harrison suffered a major injury and was a shell of his former self. I haven't seen that type of decline in Wayne. He's still one of the top WRs in the game in my opinion and I think he's a lock for Top 10 fantasy production as long as Manning is healthy.

Now Top 10 production would result in a decline since he's typically been Top 5. But Top 10 production would certainly make him a very good value play in the third round of a PPR draft. I'm more than happy to get a Top 10 WR by any name at that point.

The only WRs I'd definitely take ahead of Wayne right now are Andre, White, Megatron, Fitz, Nicks, VJax, Austin and Jennings. And that's due primarily to Manning's situation. If Peyton was 100%, I'd move Wayne ahead of VJax, Austin and Jennings and on the same tier as Nicks.

[ August 23, 2011, 07:19 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:56 pm

When you look at where all of the Colts WR's are being drafted this year, including Dallas Clark, it would be absolutely impossible for Manning to throw for enough completions for all of these guys to warrant their draft positions. Somebody WILL disappoint!

Dallas Clark - aging TE but even if his production does go down will the Colts stop using the TE or will his production be lost to Tamme. I'm guessing the Colts continue to use the TE this year like they have in the past. There may be a decline in targets but it won't be a wholesale shift away from the TE.

Wayne - aging WR who when you watch him doesn't get separation anymore. Still talented and great rapport with Manning But his skill set is in obvious decline.

Garcon - Leads the league in dropped passes and can't even catch 60% of his targets with one of the best QB's ever throwing him the ball. Does Manning really trust him to be a go to guy???

Collie - Huge injury risk but Manning clearly likes going to him. Not a huge physical talent but great hands.

What gets me is people ranking all 4 of these guys very high but the numbers don't add up. Manning will not throw more than last year - he will probably throw less times. So how can they all be top WR's. We'll see who is right. I have my thoughts.

One questions for Tom. Assuming they are all healthy and Manning is healthy. Who disappoints???

Wayne

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:02 pm

Based on where he's being drafted my guess would be Collie.

Wayne and Clark will get their targets. Peyton isn't going to go away from them. I like Garcon a lot but I don't see him overtaking either one.

One thing the Colts could also do is utilize Clark and Tamme together. That's something they've been working on in camp. If they do that, that could lower the snaps for Collie.

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:04 pm

So despite leading the Colts in targets, receptions, touchdowns, and receiving percentage last year while healthy, Manning is going to look elsewhere, correct?

Wayne

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:12 pm

Originally posted by Coltsfan:
So despite leading the Colts in targets, receptions, touchdowns, and receiving percentage last year while healthy, Manning is going to look elsewhere, correct?

Wayne Wayne led the Colts in targets last season. He averaged nearly 11 per game. I don't see Manning suddenly opting to ignore him.

I like Collie but No. 3 WRs typically don't produce consistently at high levels. Wayne and Clark are Peyton's guys. He's not going to go away from them. I think Garcon, Collie and to a lesser extent Tamme will get the remainder. I like Garcon a lot and could see him continuing his production from the second half of last season. If that happens and Wayne and Clark get theirs as expected, I'm not sure there will be a lot left for Collie. At least not to justify taking him as a WR2.

CraigW · Post by **CraigW** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:15 pm

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
quote:Originally posted by Coltsfan:
So despite leading the Colts in targets, receptions, touchdowns, and receiving percentage last year while healthy, Manning is going to look elsewhere, correct?

Wayne Wayne led the Colts in targets last season. He averaged nearly 11 per game. I don't see Manning suddenly opting to ignore him.

I like Collie but No. 3 WRs typically don't produce consistently at high levels. Wayne and Clark are Peyton's guys. He's not going to go away from them. I think Garcon, Collie and to a lesser extent Tamme will get the remainder. I like Garcon a lot and could see him continuing his production from the second half of last season. If that happens and Wayne and Clark get theirs as expected, I'm not sure there will be a lot left for Collie. At least not to justify taking him as a WR2. [/QUOTE]He meant while Collie was healthy he led the team in games he played.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:16 pm

Collie's ability to stay healthy is a huge question.

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:17 pm

Exactly CraigW!

Thanks for answering the question Tom.

Wayne