Here's Tom's FBG Team: Have At It

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:21 pm

The question I would pose for those who think Wayne is going to decline is how much of a decline are you projecting? Rich seems to think he's going to see his receptions cut nearly in half (hence his Marvin 2008 comparison). I can't see any way that happens. So what are people projecting?

Keep in mind, I also think he's going to decline. He was WR3 in the NFFC last season. I do not believe he'll reach that level again - although given his talent, Peyton and the Colts' offensive approach it certainly wouldn't surprise me if he did - so I also anticipate a decline. My belief, though, is he won't fall out of the Top 10 which more than justifies where I took him in last night's draft.

So how far is his production going to drop off?

[ August 23, 2011, 08:22 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:26 pm

I don't think Rich ever said Wayne's production would be cut in half. In fact I believe he mentioned 80/1000/5 which would be about 210 fantasy points. I have him slightly higher than that. Two out of the past 3 years he has only had 6 TD's so I could see Rich being correct at 5 given all of the targets the Colts have and Wayne's inability to separate from defenders.

Wayne

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:44 pm

I could see the TDs being in the six range too. Where I disagree is with the yardage. Wayne has topped 1,200 yards five times in the past seven seasons and topped 1,140 six times in the past seven. I don't foresee a 300+ yard drop-off, especially when you consider how many targets he's going to get.

Again, he's Manning's No. 1 guy. He got nearly 11 targets per game last season and he caught nearly 7 of them. Let's say he declines to 5.5 out of 11 that still projects to nearly 90 receptions. And even if he settles in around 12.5 YPC as has been the case the past two seasons you're looking at more than 1,100 yards, which seems reasonable when you look at what he's done for seven consecutive seasons. Throw in five TDs (which would represent his fewest in six seasons and you're still looking at around 235 points. That would've been WR13 last season. If he gets his six TDs which seems reasonable he is right on the cusp of the Top 10. Factor in more likely declines from players such as Lloyd and Bowe (at least in terms of TDs) and Wayne is squarely in place as a Top 10 fantasy WR.

All of that takes into consideration a realistic decline in my opinion from his 2010 production.

[ August 23, 2011, 08:45 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:54 pm

Reggie's last 3 years he averaged 7.9, 9.7, and 10.8 targets per game so last year was an extremely high number as compared to prior years. It's completely reasonable to assume his targets decline as the Colts will be throwing less often and there is MUCH more competition for catches in Indy. His yards per catch have also declined each of the past 3 years from nearly 14 down to 12.2. It's possible it goes back up this year but given his age I would be more likely to assume it may slightly decline again this year. But regardless of all of that I could see him anywhere from 220 to 240 points which isn't exactly falling off of the face of the earth and is a very solid WR2.

I think that the point is that you can get a WR of equivalent value a round or maybe even 2 rounds later in the draft. If you are looking for a safe WR2 then Wayne is probably it but at least in my mind he lacks the upside this year of several very explosive players that can be had in the 3rd round. Just my 2 cents.

Wayne

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 3:03 pm

Tom, let it go man!!! It's time to let his play on the field determine if you're right or Rich is adamantly right. There's only one way to find out. Wayne dropping to 28-30 seems like a major fall from grace and only time will tell if folks were right or not. I would have taken him there as well, but I'm sure that's just more ammunition against us Cheeseheads.

Okay, I promise I won't take Wayne on Sunday night. But I have a feeling I'll be taking the same bullets from the crowd. Still, I'm ready to jump into the fire!!!

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 3:03 pm

The Colts' running game remains highly suspect so while Manning likely won't throw 450 times again, it's not unrealistic to project around 400 pass attempts. Wayne remains the No. 1 WR in the offense. His role hasn't changed. I don't think there are many WRs who could catch 90-100 passes with an elite QB available in the fifth round of too many drafts. The only other guy who comes to mind is Colston and he has issues of his own which have impacted his value.

The only concern I see with Wayne revolves around Manning. If Peyton is healthy, Wayne's role won't change. He'll still be the No. 1 WR in a pass-happy offense with an elite QB. I don't see many WRs with his ceiling. In fact, I only see a handful and all or nearly all of them will likely be gone before Wayne is picked.

Again, I can't stress more that I wasn't jumping up and down about getting Wayne. I have concerns with him too. I just think in the third round the opportunity to get a PPR stud was too much value to pass up.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 3:08 pm

Originally posted by blue devils:
i might be crazy but i am squarely in tom's corner here. That sounds like a compliment.

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 3:13 pm

You definitely could be right Tom and it's impossible for me to make a case against "I think."

I can promise you that Colston isn't even close to being on my radar this year - especially in the top 5 rounds.

And Greg - don't come in here breaking up a good fight!

And you do have to post your team here so you can get the appropriate amount of ridicule!

Wayne

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 3:16 pm

Originally posted by Coltsfan:
You definitely could be right Tom and it's impossible for me to make a case against "I think."I believe I've done more than just toss out "I think" responses, Wayne.

What's being lost here is all of us are in agreement that Wayne is likely to decline. I simply don't expect him to suffer a massive one. His role is far too defined for that to occur in my opinion.

The primary issue with Wayne is Peyton's health. I believe that is what is causing him to drop and why he was there for me in the third round last night. If Peyton was healthy now I don't think there's a chance Wayne would fall to the third round in any PPR draft. I'm willing to bet most people would tend to agree with that.