How Close Are NFFC League Races?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:44 am

On a separate thread, Jersey Paul asked if the 13-week regular season schedule the NFFC has is really effective and whether it would make more sense to go with 12-team leagues and expanded playoffs. It was a legitimate question and one that could only be answered by looking at every NFFC league race to date and determining how important these last two weeks really are. Well, the numbers are mind-boggling as 15 of the 16 league titles are still up for grabs and most of them will still be undecided after this week.

Here's the results after 11 regular season games:

1) Only one team has secured a league title and the $5,000 first prize. That is Team NEW in Las Vegas League 5, which is 11-0 and leading the overall points standing. Four teams in that league are tied for second place in record and two teams are eight points apart for the second playoff spot.

2) Four of the 16 NFFC leagues have teams tied for first place. Two of those leagues (LV 3 and NY 3) have three teams tied for first place and two other leagues (LV 2 and NY 4) have two-way ties for first place. LV 3 actually has six teams that are one game out of first place in h2h.

3) Eight other NFFC leagues have only one game separating first place from second place. Two of those leagues (NY 5 and LV 1) have FOUR teams tied for second place in h2h, one game out of first place. Two other leagues (CHI 2 and CHI 3) have THREE teams tied for second in h2h, one game out of first place.

4) Four other NFFC leagues have a first place team one game ahead in h2h of one second place team. But the fight for the second place playoff spot is tight in all of those leagues.

Your chance for $100,000 this year is as good as it gets as I doubt we'll ever have only 32 playoff teams again. These last two weeks will definitely determine who earns that one in 32 shot at $100,000 and the one in 8 shot at additional playoff money.

With the bye weeks all done, it hardly seems like the time for the NFFC's regular season to be finished. In fact, it feels like crunch time. I'm glad we have two more weeks of regular season action left and then three more weeks for EVERY single NFFC team to compete for playoff money, whether that be in the big playoff setup or the Consolation Bowl. Good luck everyone and thanks so much for making this debut season such a competitive and exciting one.

Now, for another discussion, can we tweak the league payout setup better? Yes. Can we expand the number of teams and improve the league payout, while still keeping a worthy grand prize? Yes. Can we add wild card teams to make sure that no Top 25 team in overall scoring is left out of the playoffs? Yes. I'm working on all of that now and will ask for feedback soon. Thanks everyone.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:45 am

greg, thanks for the numbers. i'll look at them more in-depth later today. as long as you're crunching numbers, can you tell us how many teams (as of right now), have the best record in their league, but NOT the most points in their league. $5,000 vs $1,500. thanks again.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 24, 2004 4:34 am

Good question and I think you'll like the results.

1) Eight of the 16 leagues have a first place team with the most points.

2) Four of the 16 leagues have a league leader with the second-most points.

3) Three of the 16 leagues have a league leader with the third-most points.

4) One of the 16 leagues have a league leader with the fourth-most points, yet that team has run off 10 straight wins.

In your situation, you lead LV 3 with the most points and there are three teams one game ahead of you tied for first place. They are the next three in total points. So it could still play out where the top team wins the league title, but obviously you need help.

All of these totals are inconclusive because so many races are so tight. Anything could change. But the smoking gun that everyone wants to find (some team that just got lucky with matchups over 13 weeks) isn't there. Most of the league leaders are also among those with the most points. It's not a perfect system, but it's pretty darn good.

Now, is it fair to give $5,000 to the h2h champion and only $1,500 to the high point total in that league if he doesn't win h2h? Yes, but maybe that spread is too great. Maybe I do everything in my power to increase second and third place league money next year, while keeping the grand prize at $100,000. Is that a fair tradeoff? I may propose that soon.

I have some changes in mind for 2005 and some new payout structures that I'll discuss soon. But I think by today's analysis I feel good about our 13-week schedule and the fact that our league leaders are deserving of whatever prize they win at the end of the year. A longer regular season brings the best to the top.

Any more data anyone wants before I take off to eat and drink the weekend away?

TamuScarecrow · Post by **TamuScarecrow** » Wed Nov 24, 2004 4:42 am

Here you go, GG. 8 point leaders are either leading or are tied for 1st in their leagues. 5 point leaders are either in 2nd or are tied for 2nd. After that, you have one in 3rd, one tied for 4th, and one tied for 8th (LV1).

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Wed Nov 24, 2004 4:56 am

Greg. You may remember that when you and I spoke about me participating in NFFC, my biggest concern was the fact that all my other teams were in 12-team leagues and with the NFFC being a 14-teamer, I wasn't sure if I would have the extra time and effort needed to dedicate to a very different and challenging league. Well, I can now tell you that it was well worth it. I love the 14-team format for a high-stake contest with a longer regular season and no LCG. As much as I enjoy WCOFF, the biggest problem with that format is the 11 game regular season. Having the LCG is nice and makes for a great week 12, but the season is simply too short and I know of many WCOFFers who will certainly agree. I don't know if there's a better alternative to a 12-team set up then the WCOFF's, but the NFFC setup is definitely one that I've really grown to like. The draft strategy and roster size is the biggest hurdle to overcome for owners used to 12-team leagues, but again, I think it is very challenging and I do not believe it will hurt the NFFC in attracting new owners in the coming years.

One suggestion I do have is the League Prizes ($5G and $1.5G). I would like to see a more equal money distribution for best record and most points, especially since in reality, it is the team with the most points that is superior, yet there is a good chance that team will end up with the lesser prize. My suggestion would be to do something like a $3750/$2750 split.

Keep up the good work.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 24, 2004 5:18 am

Thanks Nag. VERY much appreciated comments. Yes, I remember that August evening conversation very well and I'm glad you tried us out. I was the most skeptical person about the 14-team concept when I threw this out last year and Tom can verify that. But I felt it would be unique and very, very tough. Mainly, though, I felt it gave people a full season of league competition and really gave them their money's worth. I guess I never thought about how tough getting the second running back would be, but in a way that has made the competition even more interesting.

I'm going to work on the league split without damaging the 5k for first place. When you win a league title, you need a good payout. And when you finish second or have the high points total in your league, you need to earn more than $250 profit. So my goal right now as I sit here with the calculator in hand is how to grow the NFFC, how to grow the league prizes, and how to keep a meaningful grand prize. I think I can do all of that and I will announce some ideas soon.

My plan is to make a strong NFFC without trying to one-up anyone else in this field. I don't believe I have to have the biggest grand prize to be successful, so maybe $100,000 or $125,000 or $150,000 is good enough if we reward the league finalists better. In time, I think the NFFC will have the biggest grand prize because we can expand this to so many different cities, but for next year I am going to act sensibly and provide a payout structure that takes care of my core customers. Hopefully, it will be a strong enough format to attract 350 members in 2005.

All input from you guys is good input. I never mind seeing the suggestions or the questions from JP, GG or anyone else. It keeps me thinking and planning for the future. We wouldn't be at this point without you guys agreeing to the revised prize structure, so I certainly plan on taking your advice on the prize structure going forward.

Thanks again everyone.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 24, 2004 5:21 am

Originally posted by TamuScarecrow:
Here you go, GG. 8 point leaders are either leading or are tied for 1st in their leagues. 5 point leaders are either in 2nd or are tied for 2nd. After that, you have one in 3rd, one tied for 4th, and one tied for 8th (LV1). Thanks Rick as you analyzed this from the other side. Obviously, if you finish with the most points in your league the worst you can earn is $1,500 and a 1 in 4 shot during the playoffs at earning more money. Next year as I've said I hope to increase that second place prize higher and add wild card spots to make sure the top scoring teams don't get left out of the playoffs. I think our setup will be even better in 2005.

renman · Post by **renman** » Wed Nov 24, 2004 12:25 pm

greg,

not sure if you remember me. but we did a little "phone dance" as i waffled back and forth on whether i wanted to invest big money into a high level league like this for the first time. i was impressed with how frank and up front you were about the changes in prize funds based on entries and i decided to go with your event over wcoff... i think the job you guys do, combined with regional drafting options will make this event grow going forward.

i do think that giving more options to make a profit from each individual league would be a good idea as that is the only "controllable" environment owners have. i think having multiple ways to make money and profit will attract more owners then a fat prize fund that only ONE person gets... giving as many people a good taste in their mouth as possible will help entries...

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Nov 24, 2004 12:27 pm

Greg, just for thought:

What if you made week 14 count for the overall cash prize, but also had #1 record vs. #1 points in each league square off that week to determine league money.

Week 14 could easily be a league championship game AND that score can count towards the overall prize. No conflicts there as both teams are striving for most points regardless.

Dave

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Wed Nov 24, 2004 2:15 pm

As I've mentioned before - It would be nice to reward the overall pts. leader after week 13 with a cash prize. Anything can happen in 3 weeks. It's a lot harder to lead the pack for 13.