3RR, Socialized Fantasy Medicine?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:06 am

Originally posted by Nag':
I missed no boat. My questions are rhetorical and I already know the answer. I don't think any of the 3RR loyalists do.
What you are apparently refusing to admit is that lower slots are benefiting and are GAINING on the middle slots thanks to 3RR. This is the DIRECT RESULT OF 3RR. Top slots lose, lower slots gain, middle slots stay the same. End result - middle slots lose. you know what the umpire says after three misses...STRIKEOUT!!

your last sentence should say...
End result -
early slots lose
middle slots gain on early slots
late slots gain on everyone (moreso the early slots)

seems like a good tradeoff to help balance the equation.

[ February 15, 2007, 02:07 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:07 am

Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
The mid slots are being helped.

Blocking the top 3 picks in round 2 was always part of the decision process whenever I was a 4-8 pick coming back in round 2.

That pretty much goes away now. I can now choose totally what's best for my team instead of choosing someone to block the huge advantage (like Manning to go with LT2 and a TOP WR) that a top 3 team could get when picks slip through.

It could very well turn out that this was a major reason why mid pick numbers don't fare as well and that could be corrected a bit by 3rr.

This makes those picks a little better than they were before. What you have described is how 3RR will effect YOUR personal approach to the draft.

What I am looking for is someone to show me how 3RR will actually help slots 7-8 in a statistical sense? Isn't that the point of 3RR to remove the statistical advantage enjoyed by the top slots and distribute it evenly to the rest? I see how the lower slots are benefiting, how will the middle ones? [/QUOTE]My approach and the the approach by others I've seen for 22 years by personally running 300+ 14 team leagues phone drafts.

Distribute it "evenly" to the rest?

Who ever asked for that? And who would be naive enough to think that could possibly happen?

All the other picks benefit a little bit in varying degrees.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:09 am

Originally posted by Nag':
Top slots lose, lower slots gain, middle slots stay the same. End result - middle slots lose. that's the beauty of KDS, Nag. no matter what draft slot allocation method is used, you HAVE to have a preference to your draft slots. if you think the middle picks are losing...RANK them last in your KDS. i don't happen to agree with you, but so be it

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:10 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

your last sentence should say...
End result -
early slots lose
middle slots gain on early slots
late slots gain on everyone (moreso the early slots)

bingo.

TamuScarecrow · Post by **TamuScarecrow** » Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:18 am

What I am looking for is someone to show me how 3RR will actually help slots 7-8 in a statistical sense? Isn't that the point of 3RR to remove the statistical advantage enjoyed by the top slots and distribute it evenly to the rest? I see how the lower slots are benefiting, how will the middle ones?Here you go, NAG. Stats from the top 30 point producers in each of the first 3 years of the NFFC:
2004 Top 4 picks - 8
Middle 6 picks - 12
Bottom 4 picks - 10
2005 Top 4 picks - 16
Middle 6 picks - 8
Bottom 4 picks - 6
2006 Top 4 picks - 17
Middle 6 picks - 6
Bottom 4 picks - 7

3-year Total Top 4 picks - 41
Middle 6 picks - 26
Bottom 4 picks - 23

Fairly top heavy here especially the last 2 years but fairly even once you get past draft spot #4. As has been stated here, I don't think 3RR is going to effect the middle guys any differently. Depends on who they draft but it's safe to say they were bitten pretty good by the injury and ineffective bug last year (Portis, James, LJdud, Ronnie Brown).

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:28 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
you know what the umpire says after three misses...STRIKEOUT!!

your last sentence should say...
End result -
early slots lose
middle slots gain on early slots
late slots gain on everyone (moreso the early slots)

seems like a good tradeoff to help balance the equation. I know I am likely wasting my time as I can see that this has become an ideological issue to you and a few others which is not allowing you to see clearly and logically but I will make another attempt.

Let's put a strength value on the 14 draft slots based on the historically statistical rate of success.

So let's say slots 1-3 get a 10 strength value with everyone else getting a 6. Does this make sense? I believe it should since the top 3 slots are the much more succesful slots.

Let's apply 3RR and asume the desired effect was acheived:

Slots 1-3 strength value drops to 8.
Lower slots (12-14) who are the DIRECT beneficiary of the round reversal increase to 8. Middle draft slots (7-8) which receive NO direct benefit from the reversal stay at 6.
(Other slots 4,5,6,9,10,11 are likely effected to a degree but not pertinent to this exercise so I will leave them out for now.)

So what has been DIRECTLY achieved?

Slots 1-3 are at level 8
Slots 12-14 are at level 8
Slots 7-8 are at level 6

End result: slots 7-8 LOSE!!

[ February 15, 2007, 02:29 PM: Message edited by: Nag' ]

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:37 am

Originally posted by Tamuscarecrow:
quote:What I am looking for is someone to show me how 3RR will actually help slots 7-8 in a statistical sense? Isn't that the point of 3RR to remove the statistical advantage enjoyed by the top slots and distribute it evenly to the rest? I see how the lower slots are benefiting, how will the middle ones?Here you go, NAG. Stats from the top 30 point producers in each of the first 3 years of the NFFC:
2004 Top 4 picks - 8
Middle 6 picks - 12
Bottom 4 picks - 10
2005 Top 4 picks - 16
Middle 6 picks - 8
Bottom 4 picks - 6
2006 Top 4 picks - 17
Middle 6 picks - 6
Bottom 4 picks - 7

3-year Total Top 4 picks - 41
Middle 6 picks - 26
Bottom 4 picks - 23

Fairly top heavy here especially the last 2 years but fairly even once you get past draft spot #4. As has been stated here, I don't think 3RR is going to effect the middle guys any differently. Depends on who they draft but it's safe to say they were bitten pretty good by the injury and ineffective bug last year (Portis, James, LJdud, Ronnie Brown). [/QUOTE]This is what I was looking for. Thanks, man.

It supports my argument 100%.

Sound Advice · Post by **Sound Advice** » Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:38 am

Nag - To answer your question.
Yes the middle picks are the weakest.
3RR does not address that weakness.

You are also correct that it has been oversold and overbought on this MB.

Good points that were brought up, but you must have missed the fact that GG dismissed them previously.

Please don't question the King.

TIA