14 Team Leagues

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Thu May 06, 2004 12:58 pm

Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by Dyv:
So, would you rather have the last QB on the list scoring you 15 pts. per game or the last RB on the list scoring you 4? QB's are quantifiably eqiuvalent, but not endless in depth. You can go 40 deep in RB if you get your goal line backs and 3rd down backs involved... perhaps 50 deep into productive players. If 5 teams get 3 QB each in the first 12 rounds of the draft... you're going to miss out on a LOT of points on a bye week. Scarcity becomes the issue. It's like closers in baseball - there are only so many, even if they all put up 25-35 saves as a norm.There's no agrument that positions become scarce much faster in a 14-teamer draft and it's is a strong possibility that an owner may have to draft a QB earlier than he is used to. But once again, my original point was in reference to the difference in QB value in 12-teamers as opposed to 14. Although your statements are NOT wrong, I'm just not sure you're in full comprehension of VBD and it's effect on drafting a QB vs RB and WR.

Originally posted by Dyv:
In all seriousness, when I offer up a 'formula' that isn't any guarantee of success - you still need to make good choices and you still need to stay healthy.You insinuated that a 12-team draft is easy because it has a "formula" for success. Obviously that statement is untrue and you seem to back away from it now, which you shoud. I think the WCOFF champ's draft is indisputable evidence to that fact.
PS. As a matter of fact I won my individual WCOFF league (#35) last year drafting RB/WR/WR/TE as well!! [/QUOTE]I'm not backing away from my statement that the formula is simple and it's an effective way to go about winning. Don't take it as evidence that you and last year's WCOFF champ did it a different way. That's hardly enough for 'proof', lol. I'm certainly willing to allow that someone can win a different way

"Indisputable evidence" ? LOL - that's preposterous. My cousin Bob won the lottery last week by picking the first digit from each of his family's social security #; therefore if I do that I will win the lottery this week? You gotta do better than that, Nag!

I don't have the time to go back and proof out the league winners in WCOFF from last year, but I bet you won't find many that didn't take at least 2 RB in the first 4 rounds.

It's okay - maybe this year I'll get Bill's kicker in round 2

Dave

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Thu May 06, 2004 1:23 pm

Originally posted by Dyv:
I don't have the time to go back and proof out the league winners in WCOFF from last year, but I bet you won't find many that didn't take at least 2 RB in the first 4 rounds.You may choose not to admit to it, but you're backtracking once again. Your "formula" is NOT 2RBs in the first 4 rounds, as you conveniently change it up now. What you DID say was "You get 2 RB with your first 2 picks no matter which pick you have...". Slightly different, don't you think?

And lastly, for the last couple of years in Fantasy Football, winning the WCOFF is about as close to indisputable evidence to success as you can have in our sport. I think it carries a lot more weight than simply stating an opinion, especially an opinion that keeps changing from one post to another.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Thu May 06, 2004 3:33 pm

lol

Winning the WCOFF is a matter of having a good team and getting hot during the playoffs. Granted, you have to have a good team to get INTO the overall final running format, but come on - 'knowing' that Jeff Garcia is going to get hot in the final few weeks is not some kind of backwards proof that your strategy was indisputable. If it's so indisputable, what did Chris Schushman do when he won the first one? I assume it must not be RB/RB... or else your indisputable argument has just been disputed... and is even using your own 'proof' system.

As for my 'backtracking' - I'll try to find the time to review the first 4 rounds of all the teams that made the finals in the WCOFF. I bet you'll see some consistency and it will look more like RB/RB than any other combination by a considerable margin.

The proposed strategy I give you HAS to vary based on your draft position - if you need it to be inflexible and allow no possible variations then you 'got me' - I admit sometimes someone could go RB/WR/RB - especially if you picked #3 and had 3-4 RB about the same quality and figured one would come back to you but a WR stuck out that you felt you had to get. That's fine - but you can't win consistently in these leagues waiting until round 5 to get your 2nd RB. I'll put in a dozen hours of research to support my claim if you refuse to admit it, but I really don't know how quickly I can get to it.

Will do my best - be patient

Dave

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Thu May 06, 2004 3:57 pm

Originally posted by Dyv:
As for my 'backtracking' - I'll try to find the time to review the first 4 rounds of all the teams that made the finals in the WCOFF. I bet you'll see some consistency and it will look more like RB/RB than any other combination by a considerable margin.Save your time and effort, Dyv. Noone is disputing the "consistency" of a RB/RB draft in the WCOFF or any other league. I can already guarantee you that it will also be the most common combination in the NFFC as well. But the "consistency" as you now call it is not what you said in your initial post. The consistency is not what I disputed.

Originally posted by Dyv:
The proposed strategy I give you HAS to vary based on your draft position - if you need it to be inflexible and allow no possible variations then you 'got me' - I admit sometimes someone could go RB/WR/RB - especially if you picked #3 and had 3-4 RB about the same quality and figured one would come back to you but a WR stuck out that you felt you had to get. That's fine - but you can't win consistently in these leagues waiting until round 5 to get your 2nd RB.Wow man, is this the same Dyv that made that "formula" speech in the beggining of this thread? Now you're talking sense! Now you're actually making your OWN argument against the blindfolded RB/RB draft theory, which is NOT a "formula" for winning. My compliments. You've come full circle in a span of 24 hours.

My work is done here.

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Thu May 06, 2004 5:24 pm

As I mentioned in another thread, I got killed last year going RB/RB out of the 5 slot when there was no proven RB to be taken. I took a gamble on Willie Green and the rest is history....I was history. I suspect only the guys in the last third of the draft will be able to go RB/RB with confidence. Maybe even fewer.

The key to this draft will be picking the RBBC guys that get increased time over last year and the guys that get more PT than expected. Will it be luck? That's what the losers will say. Some of it is luck, but luck is a tool of the prepared.

Barflies · Post by **Barflies** » Fri May 07, 2004 2:52 am

Increasing to 14 teams would have meant last year that Boldin gets drafted by more teams. Does that make it a skillful draft pick or more of a lucky pick on say the 90th WR drafted when choosing among few guys left who will even sniff at playing time. In hindsight, it will look like a genius pick but in my opinion its really a slightly educated, deep flier. And that's the type of pick that will make the difference. There's no doubt that those not prepared will have no shot in this format but would they in 12 team league with these large starting roster sizes?

There's got to be a point where # of teams and starting rosters get too big, that skill factor decreases and luck factor increases. I'd say this passes that point. If you say this doesn't get to that point, that's cool. But I have a hard time believing there is no such point and this is at least not approaching it.

One other item. The 13 week regular season is a nice outcome of going to 14 teams. But not having a league championship and giving the top league prize based only on best record again raises the luck factor in determining a large % of prize money. Having the league championship determined week 14 in combination with 1st week of playoffs may be a decent alternative. Or better yet, going against each team each week instead of HTH would really help in determining the best team in each league.

These points are not meant to be critical of this league setup but to provoke debate on what the ideal setup is. After this season, WCOFFers who participate in NFFC this year will have an even better vantage point to debate on what the best setup is. I'll be interested to hear - hope the guys running the different big time leagues will be too.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri May 07, 2004 4:02 am

The question of luck vs. skill is one I think can be debated all day long regardless of league size. For example, if you drafted Keenan McCardell or Santana Moss late in a 12-team league (for example, I grabbed Moss late -- he was the fifth or sixth WR I took in that league if I recall correctly -- in one such expert league last year) is that skill that you had them when they went off and performed as WR1s for a good part of the season or was it luck that they exceeded expectations by a significant margin and you happened to be the fortunate owner?

Personally, I doubt Boldin would have been drafted in any league last year -- except maybe a 20-team league or something of that nature. The guy was just too unknown and the Cardinals were too awful that I would be very surprised if anyone saw that coming.

The key to winning any fantasy league is getting players to outperform their draft positions and where you find such players is in the later rounds. Yes, the larger the league the harder it can be to find those players, but that is where skill enters the equation (with a good dose of luck because let's face it to win a fantasy title you need to have some fortune along the way -- there's no harm in admitting that in my opinion). The talent is going to thin out quicker in a 14-team league, but everyone is in the same boat and that is where your skill level can make the difference. We believe that is going to make the competition even more exciting throughout the season.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri May 07, 2004 4:58 am

Barflies, your points are well taken and we are listening. I originally had this as 18 players per team and you are correct that the additional two rounds will take out 28 players who would otherwise be available during the free agent bidding period and is 40 more players than other 12-team leagues. So I could certainly agree to a change on roster size.

It's interesting because some people like the one-week championship game format and believe that determines the real league champion and others hate it, with so much money on the line during one week of action. It's true that the head-to-head league champion may have some good fortune during the year to finish with the best record, but we are rewarding two teams in each division: the top record and top overall points. Both will earn money and have a shot at the $200,000 grand prize.

I like the feedback and I'm willing to make changes. But you are right, in the end we'll have different setups and see which ones appeal to the most dedicated fantasy football players in the country.

Barflies · Post by **Barflies** » Fri May 07, 2004 5:19 am

FYI Tom - Boldin was drafted in a handful of WCOFF (12 team) leagues last year. He undoubtedly would have been taken in a number of more leagues if there were 14 teams and 25 more RBs/WRs drafted. He was on my list of about 100 WRs but I never got down far enough on my list to consider him. Maybe I would have in a 14 team league. If so, would that pick have been more skill or luck?

Greg - I appreciate and can tell you are listening and considering different items. With more and more fantasy options emerging, it makes sense to have different setups and also to evolve your league over seasons to what die-hards think is the best. Maybe that will still be 14 team leagues, maybe not. My fantasy $ are committed elsewhere this year but I'll definitely be following this league as option for next. Good Luck.

doctork · Post by **doctork** » Fri May 07, 2004 5:21 am

I personally think the playoff system in the NFFC is the fairest I've ever seen. Leagues where one playoff game loss and you're out certainly don't reward the best teams. This league appears to reward good performance for a whole season not one game. As for the 14 team league, time will tell. Let's play it this year and then evaluate it vs. 12 teams leagues at the end of the year.