Fast Facts After Week 3

[mkrucek]

Originally posted by SNAKE:
...you clearly misunderstood the meaning of the post...now who's the brainchild here?...hehehe...SNAKE Didn't misunderstand anything, Snake. Now if you're saying that you didn't write what you meant, I'll accept that. Your first line - well, has it been negated - says it all.

[King of Queens]

Originally posted by SNAKE:
...interpretation is as follows; has 3RR done it's job and levelled the playing field in comparison to past sans-3RR drafts?...and the answer, ISHO, is a resounding YES....SNAKE Would SHO be different if your team were in, say, 246th place?

[mkrucek]

Originally posted by SNAKE:
...interpretation is as follows; has 3RR done it's job and levelled the playing field in comparison to past sans-3RR drafts?...and the answer, ISHO, is a resounding YES....SNAKE A resounding yes after 3 weeks? Maybe pre-reptilian brain.

[Ted's Cracked Head]

Here is the data thru 3 weeks:

Draft Slot TOTAL Slot Avg + or - Avg
1 10468.30 134.21 2.01
2 10386.90 133.17 0.96
3 10317.40 132.27 0.07
4 9933.00 127.35 -4.86
5 9876.35 126.62 -5.58
6 10013.30 128.38 -3.83
7 10467.35 134.20 2.00
8 10221.35 131.04 -1.16
9 10379.55 133.07 0.87
10 9963.45 127.74 -4.46
11 10778.00 138.18 5.98
12 10262.90 131.58 -0.63
13 10744.10 137.74 5.54
14 10551.80 135.28 3.08
Totals 144363.75 Wkly Avg/Team 132.20
Slots 1-7 / Avg 130.88
Slots 8-14 / Avg 133.52

[3INTBOY]

Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
Here is the data thru 3 weeks:

Draft Slot TOTAL Slot Avg + or - Avg
1 10468.30 134.21 2.01
2 10386.90 133.17 0.96
3 10317.40 132.27 0.07
4 9933.00 127.35 -4.86
5 9876.35 126.62 -5.58
6 10013.30 128.38 -3.83
7 10467.35 134.20 2.00
8 10221.35 131.04 -1.16
9 10379.55 133.07 0.87
10 9963.45 127.74 -4.46
11 10778.00 138.18 5.98
12 10262.90 131.58 -0.63
13 10744.10 137.74 5.54
14 10551.80 135.28 3.08
Totals 144363.75 Wkly Avg/Team 132.20
Slots 1-7 / Avg 130.88
Slots 8-14 / Avg 133.52 Rob,
This is all good, but it doesn't really show anything. Since the overall average for the NFFC is about 130 points per week per team. These numbers fit into that average for the event overall.

Finding out where the averages come from is really the tale of the tape. I'll update the post I had done in the other thread.

3'

[3INTBOY]

3INT/BFDFANTASYfootball.com
Member
Member # 290

Member Rated:
posted September 19, 2007 03:10 PM
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quote:
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Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:
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Originally posted by RiFF:
Not surprisingly, the weakest area seems to be the mid-early slots; 4-7. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Great stuff, Rob.
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It's still early Rich, but after two weeks the fourth through eighth teams are below the overall scoring average. No teams that drafted sixth through eighth are in the Top 25 either.

However, how do you explain the 10.73 point differential between Pick 11 and Pick 10? Interesting. We'll just need more time to sort this all out and then more in-depth analysis.

Rob was going to wait until Week 3 to provide this data because he knew that opinions would suddenly be formed after only two weeks. I asked him to put the data out there this week as a point of reference going forward. I have a feeling that by Week 13, we'll have a much clearer picture of how 3RR impacted the NFFC races this year. Then folks will have even more data to plan their strategies for 2008.
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I was going to wait until week 3 as well, I don't want to "pre worry" but since Rob did send it out I'll show you what I have been keeping. I think it's very good as a comparison method to 06', since the overwhelming number of teams came from the top.

This can't be broken into 3rds because of 14 teams, so I made the end picks 10/14 the middle 5/9 and the top 1/4

Top 75 Breakdown after two weeks:
Pick#/# of Teams in Top 75/Highest Overall@Pick#

14/8 Teams/1st overall
13/12 Teams/5th overall
12/7 Teams/12th overall
11/9 Teams/6th overall
10/4 Teams/13th overall

9/8 Teams/7th overall
8/2 Teams/39th overall
7/3 Teams/31st overall
6/2 Teams/59th overall
5/5 Teams/3rd overall

4/5 Teams/ 4th overall
3/5 Teams/27th overall
2/1 Team/ 9th overall
1/ 4 Teams/ 23rd overall

Each position should have 5.3 teams represented if perfect balance were achieved (not possible).

So the End of the draft should have 26.5 Teams it has: 40 teams

The Middle should also have 26.5 Teams it has: 20

The Top should have 21.2 Teams it has: 15 Teams

Should be interesting to watch the season unfold, at this point the middle drafters were most impacted; with the top not far behind, but it's early.

3'


Quote
Right now, the back-end teams are having more success than the front-end teams. Does that make 3RR a DISASTER?? I don't think so. In fact, last week everyone was saying that the teams that drafted in the middle were doomed, just like others had predicted. Well, many of those teams had good Week 3s and are back in the Top 36 in overall scoring. Let the season play out before we make such dire assessments of the system

Quote
...it's really rather simple here, if ya ask The Serpent...3RR has;

1) NOTHING to do with how the top 3 or 4 players perform in any given year...

2) EVERYTHING to do with levelling the balance of the playing field of the entire draft...


After Week #3
I don't want to "pre worry" I'll show you each week what I have been keeping. I think it's very good as a comparison method to 06', since the overwhelming number of teams came from the top. And that was clearly the promt to getting 3RR in place.

This can't be broken into 3rds because of 14 teams, so I made the end picks 10/14 the middle 5/9 and the top 1/4

Top 75 Breakdown after three weeks:
Pick#/# of Teams in Top 75/Highest Overall@Pick#

14/7 Teams/ 4th Overall
13/12 Teams/ 7th Overall
12/ 7 Teams
11/7 teams/ 3rd Overall
10/4 Teams/ 10th Overall

9/ 4 Teams/ 13th Overall
8/ 7 Teams/ 8th Overall
7/ 6 Teams/ 23rd Overall
6/ 1 Team/ 59th Overall
5/ 5 Teams/ 1st Overall

4/ 3 Teams/ 18th Overall
3/ 3 Teams/ 20th Overall
2/ 6 Teams/ 2nd overall
1/ 3 teams/ 14th Overall

I think you have to use 75 Teams as the basis for following this, that's 20% (appr.) of the overall event, a statistically relevent amount of teams, allowing for a wide divergance of representation and player dispersal.

This would also be interesting for the BOTTOM 75 Teams.

As a reminder if perfect balance were accomplished there would be 5.3 teams per slot.

So picks 10/14 would have 26.5 Teams represented

Picks 5/9 would also have 26.5 Teams represented

Picks 1/4 would have 21.2 Teams represented

After the explosion of last week of players in the middle the change has been less than 10% to the overall makeup of the Top 75 Teams.

Picks 10/14 Have 37 teams in the Top 75 (a loss of 3 from week 2)

Picks 5/9 have 23 teams in the Top 75 (a gain of 3 teams from week 2)

Picks 1/4 have 15 teams in the Top 75 (no change)

3'

ETA: Because I know Greg thinks I'm against 3RR, I would like to make the following statement: This is neither for or against 3RR, it's the math that shows what is occuring. Nothing more.

I'd comment on it, but think it is too early, it's good to get a baseline set of numbers started and modified each week.

[ September 25, 2007, 02:15 PM: Message edited by: 3INT/BFDFANTASYfootball.com ]

[Ted's Cracked Head]

Lou,

The main thing you are right about is that it is way too early to have this discussion.

I am going to try not to post on this topic until January of 2008.

Changed the word Only to Main as that was a poor choice of verbage. Sorry Lou

[ September 25, 2007, 03:08 PM: Message edited by: Ted's Cracked Head ]