NFFC Early Season Draft Results

[BigBlueNation]

As always, good stuff Mike.

[David U Kennedy]

You left out Doug Martin. His 3rd or 4th round price was a major value. I guess its no coincidence that Doug Martin and Alfred Morris were on all of my teams last year. Nice stats here but it doesn't include guys like Bryce Brown, Marcel Reece, Deangelo Williams, Knowshon Moreno, Andre Brown, Dujuan Harris, and Joiqe Bell. Guys who stepped in for injured starters and produced for 3,4, or 5 weeks.

[Sandman62]

You left out Doug Martin. His 3rd or 4th round price was a major value. I guess its no coincidence that Doug Martin and Alfred Morris were on all of my teams last year. Nice stats here but it doesn't include guys like Bryce Brown, Marcel Reece, Deangelo Williams, Knowshon Moreno, Andre Brown, Dujuan Harris, and Joiqe Bell. Guys who stepped in for injured starters and produced for 3,4, or 5 weeks.

I left those players out because I took your previous comments to imply that...

You are advocating NOT taking RBs in rounds 3-5 (which is where Martin went last year):

Murray, McFadden, Mathews rounds 3-5? Give me Roddy, Nelson, and Cobb.

And that you also were implying that RBs with "prominent roles" can be had from round 6 on:

In a DC if you grab 4 or 5 backup RBs like M. Bush, M Reese, Gerhart, Turbin, Tate, or K hunter one or 2 of them should step into a prominent role.

I don't consider "Guys who stepped in for injured starters and produced for 3,4, or 5 weeks" = "prominent".

In my experience, it's easy to think we can land quality RB2s in mid-rounds if we recently had success doing so. A few years ago, I had BJGE and Hillis in their breakout years and I developed the same sense of false security. IOW, given the vast majority of mid-round RBs who do NOT turn into viable RB2s in this pass-happy NFL era, I believe recency bias tends to take over.

[RiFF]

I guess its no coincidence that Doug Martin and Alfred Morris were on all of my teams last year. .

After reading your posts, I suspected as much....but this new bit of information now leaves little doubt about you.....

[Sandman62]

recency effect [ˈriːsənsɪ]
n
(Psychology) The phenomenon that when people are asked to recall in any order the items on a list, those that come at the end of the list are more likely to be recalled than the others.

[mattjb]

Good points Coltsfan. There are many ways to win these drafts. I hope my draft strategy will be a minority one. All the better for me. Murray, McFadden, Mathews rounds 3-5? Give me Roddy, Nelson, and Cobb.

Using last year's ADP vs. Actual stats, here's how that strategy worked. Here are the top 75 RBs drafted after round 5 last year, which yielded just 5 usable RBs. Only one of them (Spiller) broke 200 points.

IMO, that strategy worked better a few years ago before the NFL decided that fans need to see more passing and scoring and relaxed the rules. But in this era, the odds of finding usable RBs this late are very slim, which is why we're seeing so many RBs drafted in the first few rounds now - they're at a steep premium in order to avoid this!

# ADP Last First Team Pts
1 6.4 Helu Roy WAS
* 2 6.5 Spiller C.J. BUF 216.9
* 3 6.7 McGahee Willis DEN 143.2
4 6.7 Redman Isaac PIT 84.1
5 6.11 Stewart Jonathan CAR 78.3
6 6.11 Wells Beanie ARI 56.5
7 7.0 Hillis Peyton KC
* 8 7.5 Ridley Stevan NE 179.6
9 7.10 Best Jahvid DET
10 7.10 Starks James GB
11 8.0 Brown Donald IND 68
12 8.0 Tate Ben HOU 51.2
13 8.3 Williams DeAngelo CAR 104.3
14 8.4 Bush Michael CHI 87.4
15 8.4 Ingram Mark NO 82.2
16 8.12 Thomas Pierre NO 113
17 9.4 Williams Ryan ARI
18 9.6 Wilson David NYG 48.5
19 9.10 Gerhart Toby MIN
20 9.10 Blount LeGarrette TB
* 21 9.12 Leshoure Mikel DET 160.9
22 9.13 Smith Kevin DET 41.9
23 10.10 Jones Felix DAL 118
24 10.11 Thomas Daniel MIA 85.1
25 10.13 Rodgers Jacquizz ATL 122.1
26 11.2 Hillman Ronnie DEN 50.1
27 11.6 Vereen Shane NE 67.2
28 12.2 Pead Isaiah STL
29 13.1 Royster Evan WAS 44.4
30 13.5 Goodson Mike OAK 59.7
31 13.5 Hightower Tim WAS
32 13.12 Scott Bernard CIN
33 13.12 Green Alex GB 76.9
34 14.0 Mendenhall Rashard PIT
35 14.1 Jennings Rashad JAC 73.3
36 14.7 Tolbert Mike CAR 87.6
37 15.3 Jacobs Brandon SF
38 15.4 Carter Delone IND
39 15.9 Hunter Kendall SF 64.1
40 16.1 Benson Cedric GB 54.5
41 16.7 Turbin Robert SEA 63
42 17.4 McKnight Joe NYJ
43 18.0 James LaMichael SF
44 18.7 McCluster Dexter KC 100.7
45 18.12 Hardesty Montario CLE
46 19.0 Dwyer Jonathan PIT 89.9
47 19.5 Jones Taiwan OAK
48 20.2 Miller Lamar MIA
49 20.7 Woodhead Danny NE 129.5
51 20.13 Moreno Knowshon DEN 83.4
52 21.2 Lewis Dion PHI
53 21.3 Ringer Javon TEN
54 21.4 Snelling Jason ATL 55.1
55 21.5 Pierce Bernard BAL 48.3
50 21.10 Rainey Chris PIT
56 22.0 McClain Le'Ron SD
57 22.0 White Johnny BUF
58 22.3 Ware D.J. NYG
59 22.3 Washington Leon SEA
60 23.3 Brinkley Curtis SD
61 23.7 Reece Marcel OAK 128.9
62 23.8 Ballard Vick IND 108
63 23.8 Kuhn John GB
* 64 24.4 Morris Alfred WAS 196
65 24.7 Powell Bilal NYJ 82.5
66 24.10 Ball Lance DEN
67 24.11 Saine Brandon GB
68 25.4 Ivory Chris NO
69 25.8 Tanner Phillip DAL
70 25.11 Casey James HOU 80.9
71 25.13 Stephens-Howling LaRod ARI 84.7
72 26.4 Fannin Mario DEN
73 26.5 Allen Anthony BAL
74 26.6 Clay Charles MIA 51.2
75 26.6 Slaton Steve MIA

That's a scary, eye opening list.

[Sandman62]

To be fair, only 10 of the top-75 WRs drafted after round 5 last year broke 180 points, suggesting that FF success = solid, uninjured first 5 rounds of picks + whomever gets the luckiest beyond round 5 - seeing it's such a total friggin' crap shoot!

180+ # NFFC Last First Team Pts
1 6.3 Britt Kenny TEN 129
* 2 6.10 Smith Torrey BAL 183
3 6.11 Meachem Robert SD 46
* 4 6.12 Wayne Reggie IND 270
5 7.3 Garcon Pierre WAS 138
6 7.10 Moore Denarius OAK 167
* 7 7.12 Moore Lance NO 205
* 8 7.13 Crabtree Michael SF 250
9 8.4 Little Greg CLE 143
10 8.5 Holmes Santonio NYJ 52
11 8.6 Heyward-Bey Darrius OAK
* 12 8.9 Boldin Anquan SF 183
13 8.10 Floyd Malcom SD 167
14 8.13 Young Titus DET
15 9.6 Rice Sidney SEA 169
16 9.8 Washington Nate TEN 145
* 17 9.9 Blackmon Justin JAC 185
* 18 9.11 Williams Mike TB 218
19 9.12 Moss Randy SF 89
20 10.8 Moss Santana WAS 147
21 10.12 Collie Austin IND
22 11.7 Robinson Laurent JAC 48
23 11.8 Amendola Danny NE 148
24 11.9 Baldwin Doug SEA 84
25 11.9 Quick Brian STL 39
26 12.0 LaFell Brandon CAR 139
27 12.2 Floyd Michael ARI 112
28 12.6 Brown Vincent SD
29 13.1 Baldwin Jon KC 59
30 13.1 Burleson Nate DET 70
31 13.2 Wright Kendall TEN 150
* 32 13.8 Cobb Randall GB 237
33 14.3 Simpson Jerome MIN 52
34 14.6 Sanders Emmanuel PIT 111
* 35 14.6 Jones James GB 226
36 14.12 Manningham Mario SF 98
37 14.13 Bess Davone CLE 145
38 15.4 Nelson David CLE 5
39 16.2 Randle Rueben NYG 67
40 16.5 Henderson Devery NO 61
41 16.5 Ford Jacoby OAK
42 16.11 Jeffery Alshon CHI 79
43 16.12 Bennett Earl CHI 79
44 16.13 Hill Stephen NYJ 64
45 17.10 Hankerson Leonard WAS 111
46 17.11 Breaston Steve KC 14
47 18.5 Royal Eddie SD 55
* 48 18.12 Hartline Brian MIA 187
49 19.5 Sanu Mohamed CIN 67
50 20.0 Gordon Josh CLE 160
51 20.4 Tate Golden SEA 164
52 20.5 Smith Steve STL
53 20.5 Douglas Harry ATL 84
54 20.11 Roberts Andre ARI 173
55 20.13 Walter Kevin HOU
56 21.8 Doucet Early ARI 50
57 21.10 Avant Jason PHI 118
58 22.1 Caldwell Andre DEN
59 22.3 Johnson Chad MIA
60 22.7 Burress Plaxico NYJ
61 23.0 Morgan Josh WAS
62 23.3 Williams Damian TEN 62
63 23.5 Hester Devin CHI 54
64 23.5 Thomas Mike JAC
65 23.8 Jones Donald BUF
66 23.10 Massaquoi Mohamed CLE
67 23.10 Branch Deion NE 31
68 23.11 Avery Donnie KC 157
69 23.12 Driver Donald GB 28
70 23.13 Givens Chris STL 133
71 24.4 Broyles Ryan DET 65
72 24.13 Stokley Brandon DEN 129
73 25.3 Jones Jacoby BAL 77
74 25.4 Toon Nick NO
75 25.5 Parker Preston TB

[mattjb]

What was the hit rate in rounds 4 & 5 - RBs v WRs ?

If you have time, Mike

[David U Kennedy]

I guess its no coincidence that Doug Martin and Alfred Morris were on all of my teams last year. .

After reading your posts, I suspected as much....but this new bit of information now leaves little doubt about you.....

Funny stuff and it looks just like me. Yes I would very much pass on current RBs who go rounds 3-5. I think you can get three WR 1 types that carry much less injury risk. I will add that my ideal first round pick will be a RB. I wont pass on Megatron, Marshall, Green, or Bryant though. The main theme is to settle for a average RB 2. Rather than a average WR 3. I pick strength at WR where you can start 4 guys half of your starting skill position. A guy who drafts McFadden over Roddy White is making a mistake I believe. The PPG might be the same or more for Mcfadden but whose going to play 16 games?

[RiFF]

You present a valid viewpoint and, in fact, when the NFFC only awarded 1/2 ppr for RB's I was a strong proponent. But for the sake of discussion let me counter your White/Mafadden supposition: (and I understand White/McFadden is only an example)
First White is going to be 32, probably not near the edge of "falling off the cliff", but arguably in decline. Now let's look at his production over the last 3 years; in 2010 he scored 314 FF points, in 2011 (J Jones rookie year) he scored 278 points, last year in Jones's 2nd year he scored 269 points. Jones scored 204 and 262 in 2011 and 2012. I'd speculate that Jones may take over as Atlanta's #1 this year. That certainly doesn't mean White won't still be a very good option...but I'd "guess" he stays on the decline trend he's had over the last couple years and probably will be in the 240-260 range this year. Still very productive but a range that isn't impossible to find a round or two later.
Now let's look at McFadden. Last year he was coming off a lis franc injury that clearly had some impact on his performance. In addition to that he was surrounded by a new coaching staff implementing a new system not best suited to his abilities. He was a huge disappointment based on his first round ADP. BUT, his best 8 games still averaged over 16 ppg. So, still useful. During the previous 2 years, he played in 20 out of 32 games averaging over 20 ppg in those 20 games. That brings us to this year. It's early, but McFadden us 100% healthy coming into the season, Oakland is reverting back to the system that took advantage of McFadden's skills during 2010/11. For the sake of this discussion let's assume he only plays in 10 games, (the number he averaged in 2010/11) but based on the return to the system he exceled in and based on Oakland having a similar level of skill that they had during 2010/11, let's assume he averages the same 20ppg he did in 2010/11. That means he'd provide 200 points, let's assume the replacement RB averages 8-10 ppg (we'll use 9) during the other 6 games. That position would provide a total of 254 points with McFadden missing 6 games. Very much in the same range as what I'd expect White to provide. And again, that assuming McFadden misses 6 games
Then the question becomes, which position is easier to fill later in the draft.... WR or RB. Of course if you can pull a Alfred Morris out of your #%@ every year, then a strong argument can be made for RB. But overall, I'd suggest, on average, it's probably WR.
But what do I know....after all, I'm "debating" the SMARTEST MAN IN THE WORLD!!!!