You want a reliable scorer in the 1st round. Tom Brady fits that mold, so he wouldn't be a bad pick there. But looking at just one season (2007) you shouldn't assume he'll be THE top scoring QB again this season. Peyton Manning and Tomlinson owners of recent years should know this well - both of those players coming off monster seasons in which they seemed to score at will didn't come close the following year.
Defensive coordinators have had an entire offseason to prepare to not be embarassed the way they were last season against the Patriots passing game. Knowing this, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Belichick do the unexpected (again) and scale back the passing attack for a more balanced offense this season. Brady could fall back into the pack of top 4 QBs along with Manning, Romo and Brees, and if he does, you'd be better off grabbing the type of RB who won't be available a couple of rounds later when you still could land a top QB.
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
EVEN L.T. NOT HAVING A MONSTER SEASON HE WAS AND IN MY OPINION STILL THE BEST FANTASY RB.
I THINK THE DIFFERENCE IN USING BRADY IN THIS EXAMPLE IS CAN YOU SAY ARE ROMO OR BREES COMPRABLE TO BRADY WITH THE RIGHT RB?
SINCE BREES AND ROMO WILL PROBABLY BE DRAFTED IN THE 3RD OF MOST DRAFTS THAT IS WAS HAS TO BE ASKED.
WITH L.T. WE KNOW THERE ISN'T A BACK OUT THERE THAT IS NOT GOING TO BE COMPRABLE IN THE THRID.
ALL OF HIS COMPRABLE BACK ARE BEING DRAFED RIGHT BEHIND HIM IN THE FIRST VERSUS BRADY'S WONT BE.
I THINK THE DIFFERENCE IN USING BRADY IN THIS EXAMPLE IS CAN YOU SAY ARE ROMO OR BREES COMPRABLE TO BRADY WITH THE RIGHT RB?
SINCE BREES AND ROMO WILL PROBABLY BE DRAFTED IN THE 3RD OF MOST DRAFTS THAT IS WAS HAS TO BE ASKED.
WITH L.T. WE KNOW THERE ISN'T A BACK OUT THERE THAT IS NOT GOING TO BE COMPRABLE IN THE THRID.
ALL OF HIS COMPRABLE BACK ARE BEING DRAFED RIGHT BEHIND HIM IN THE FIRST VERSUS BRADY'S WONT BE.
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Ted's Cracked Head
- Posts: 2817
- Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 6:00 pm
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Yes, Tom Brady can lead owners (in leagues that reward QBs 6 pts/TD) to Championships if they draft him in the first round. I think I would do this in the 12 and 14 team leagues if I had the 8th or later pick.
I have drafted once already this year and set my KDS in the following manner with the hopes of taking Brady at 1.10: 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
The plan was to take Brady at 1.10. The best RB available at 2.5 and then my #1WR at 3.5.
The main question you need to ask yourself first is: Will the Patriots offense repeat those numbers? I feel the answer to this question is yes. I expect huge years from Brady, Moss and Welker.
Factors:
3RR
From the back of the draft I believe you have the ability to go Brady – RB – WR and get 3 solid #1s at their positions. Without 3RR I think this becomes more difficult, especially in the 14 team leagues. That is why Brady may be worth a shot at 1.8 or so. (right where Johnny took him a month ago and killed my plan)
2007 Points at QB and the 1st Round Selection
Brady averaged 34.3 points per game. The next best was 26.9. QBs 3-10 ranged between 22.6 and 24.5 points per game while QBs like Eli posted 18.1. Garrard averaged 21.2, Campbell mustered 16.6 and my QB, VY – hammered out 14.5 big ones per.
That means that Brady was plus 8 per week over the next best and another 8-20 over the rest of the QBs. (mostly in the 10-16 points per week range)
Question: Is this a point total that can be absorbed by waiting for your first RB or WR? I answered yes because I project the Patriots offense to post similar numbers.
Now on to Round 2.
2007 Points at RB and the 2nd Round Selection
LT and Westbrook averaged 21.2 and 21.7 points per game. After them the next group of 23 averaged between 10 and 21 points with the majority scoring around 15 points per week.
I believe that you will be able to secure a RB that will average in the 15-17 points per week range in the second round.
So if you have the 8th-14th picks and you select Brady in the first. You will have an edge of approx 10-16 points per game over the rest of the teams in your league every week at the QB position.
After the second round you will have added a RB that will keep pace with most of the RB#1s in your league and again, you have that edge at QB in the bank.
Round 3, complete the “Core” or seek other value?
2007 Points at WR and the 3rd Round Selection
Moss led the way last year and I believe he does so again. They cannot be stopped. He averaged 24 points per game while the next 9 ranged from 17.5 to 20.4 points. WRs 15-25 averaged between 12.9 and 17.5 with most being in the 13-15 point range.
With an early pick in the 3rd round I believe that you will be able to secure your #1 WR who will average in the 15-18 points per week. This would leave you a few points per week weaker at WR1 but IMHO, the Brady factor has you ahead after 3 rounds over the rest of the teams in your league.
Brady – RB – Stud TE might even be a way to go this year from the back or middle of the draft?
Following up with the best available RB in the 4th and possibly a top tier TE in the 5th. This may need to be flip-flopped depending on who is available.
To me that would be a winning “Core”. I know I can bolster my WRs in the 6th and 7th while other teams are fighting over QBs.
I would make sure I draft Cassel later and one other QB. Knowing me, I would try and wait as long as possible and take VY in the 11th?
I think Brady again leads all players using the NFFC scoring system and is worthy of a later first round pick in both 12 and 14 team leagues using 3RR.
[ June 09, 2008, 03:59 PM: Message edited by: Ted's Cracked Head ]
I have drafted once already this year and set my KDS in the following manner with the hopes of taking Brady at 1.10: 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
The plan was to take Brady at 1.10. The best RB available at 2.5 and then my #1WR at 3.5.
The main question you need to ask yourself first is: Will the Patriots offense repeat those numbers? I feel the answer to this question is yes. I expect huge years from Brady, Moss and Welker.
Factors:
3RR
From the back of the draft I believe you have the ability to go Brady – RB – WR and get 3 solid #1s at their positions. Without 3RR I think this becomes more difficult, especially in the 14 team leagues. That is why Brady may be worth a shot at 1.8 or so. (right where Johnny took him a month ago and killed my plan)
2007 Points at QB and the 1st Round Selection
Brady averaged 34.3 points per game. The next best was 26.9. QBs 3-10 ranged between 22.6 and 24.5 points per game while QBs like Eli posted 18.1. Garrard averaged 21.2, Campbell mustered 16.6 and my QB, VY – hammered out 14.5 big ones per.
That means that Brady was plus 8 per week over the next best and another 8-20 over the rest of the QBs. (mostly in the 10-16 points per week range)
Question: Is this a point total that can be absorbed by waiting for your first RB or WR? I answered yes because I project the Patriots offense to post similar numbers.
Now on to Round 2.
2007 Points at RB and the 2nd Round Selection
LT and Westbrook averaged 21.2 and 21.7 points per game. After them the next group of 23 averaged between 10 and 21 points with the majority scoring around 15 points per week.
I believe that you will be able to secure a RB that will average in the 15-17 points per week range in the second round.
So if you have the 8th-14th picks and you select Brady in the first. You will have an edge of approx 10-16 points per game over the rest of the teams in your league every week at the QB position.
After the second round you will have added a RB that will keep pace with most of the RB#1s in your league and again, you have that edge at QB in the bank.
Round 3, complete the “Core” or seek other value?
2007 Points at WR and the 3rd Round Selection
Moss led the way last year and I believe he does so again. They cannot be stopped. He averaged 24 points per game while the next 9 ranged from 17.5 to 20.4 points. WRs 15-25 averaged between 12.9 and 17.5 with most being in the 13-15 point range.
With an early pick in the 3rd round I believe that you will be able to secure your #1 WR who will average in the 15-18 points per week. This would leave you a few points per week weaker at WR1 but IMHO, the Brady factor has you ahead after 3 rounds over the rest of the teams in your league.
Brady – RB – Stud TE might even be a way to go this year from the back or middle of the draft?
Following up with the best available RB in the 4th and possibly a top tier TE in the 5th. This may need to be flip-flopped depending on who is available.
To me that would be a winning “Core”. I know I can bolster my WRs in the 6th and 7th while other teams are fighting over QBs.
I would make sure I draft Cassel later and one other QB. Knowing me, I would try and wait as long as possible and take VY in the 11th?
I think Brady again leads all players using the NFFC scoring system and is worthy of a later first round pick in both 12 and 14 team leagues using 3RR.
[ June 09, 2008, 03:59 PM: Message edited by: Ted's Cracked Head ]
My mama says she loves me but she could be jiving too! BB King
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
The main question you need to ask yourself first is: Do you feel lucky punk...well do yaRob, fixed your question. I wondered why pick 10 was your 1st choice...now I know. That Johnny..just can't trust him!!
The main question you need to ask yourself first is: Do you feel lucky punk...well do yaRob, fixed your question. I wondered why pick 10 was your 1st choice...now I know. That Johnny..just can't trust him!!
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
In these scenarios many are suggesting that it might be reasonable to wait until round 3 and take Romo. If Brady reverts closer to the norm, taking a RB in round 1 and then Romo in round 3 might be a much better strategy. imo, this is an even riskier startegy. This assumes there is no risk with Romo. I believe there is as much, if not more, risk in Romo falling back "into the pack" than there is with Brady not being the #1 QB.
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Greg Ambrosius
- Posts: 36408
- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
This is going to be my Rotoworld.com column for this Wednesday. You guys are doing all my research for me with the great numbers. I may come to a different conclusion than some of you, but the facts will be fun to digest. Thanks all and keep up the great analysis. This is good stuff.
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by RiFF:
In these scenarios many are suggesting that it might be reasonable to wait until round 3 and take Romo. If Brady reverts closer to the norm, taking a RB in round 1 and then Romo in round 3 might be a much better strategy. imo, this is an even riskier startegy. This assumes there is no risk with Romo. I believe there is as much, if not more, risk in Romo falling back "into the pack" than there is with Brady not being the #1 QB. It's obvious that copying off my paper is paying dividends for you Rich!!
I agree completely with what you stated above about Romo! He is going far too high in the drafts I've done this year for my likes.
In these scenarios many are suggesting that it might be reasonable to wait until round 3 and take Romo. If Brady reverts closer to the norm, taking a RB in round 1 and then Romo in round 3 might be a much better strategy. imo, this is an even riskier startegy. This assumes there is no risk with Romo. I believe there is as much, if not more, risk in Romo falling back "into the pack" than there is with Brady not being the #1 QB. It's obvious that copying off my paper is paying dividends for you Rich!!
I agree completely with what you stated above about Romo! He is going far too high in the drafts I've done this year for my likes.
@RedRyder
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
I think the real question about building your team around Brady is not actually Brady himself, as he is always in the 26-28 TD and 3,800 yard range no matter who he is throwing too, so he should be considered a sure thing.
But when anticipating last years numbers, 50 TD and 4,800 yards, you have to turn your focus to none other than Mr. Moss. He, along with the diabolical Belicheat, was at the conrnerstone of Brady's mega success last season.
So when evaluating Brady you need to ask yourself do you think Randy can duplicate last year's performance. The issue here is that Randy is the player with the injury concerns and just concerns in general, not Brady, but those concerns directly affect Brady.
When healthy and motivated Randy has been able to post around 15 TD and 1,400 yards. Last year he posted 23 TD and 1,500 yards, can he do that again? With those nagging hammy woes? Maybe. But I am guessing not.
The problem is, even figuring him for 15 TD could still mean 40 TD for Brady and again the #1 fantasy QB, just maybe not by such a great margin. But should Randy act up in any way or miss a few games to minor injuries, how much closer do you project Brady to the rest of the pack?
But when anticipating last years numbers, 50 TD and 4,800 yards, you have to turn your focus to none other than Mr. Moss. He, along with the diabolical Belicheat, was at the conrnerstone of Brady's mega success last season.
So when evaluating Brady you need to ask yourself do you think Randy can duplicate last year's performance. The issue here is that Randy is the player with the injury concerns and just concerns in general, not Brady, but those concerns directly affect Brady.
When healthy and motivated Randy has been able to post around 15 TD and 1,400 yards. Last year he posted 23 TD and 1,500 yards, can he do that again? With those nagging hammy woes? Maybe. But I am guessing not.
The problem is, even figuring him for 15 TD could still mean 40 TD for Brady and again the #1 fantasy QB, just maybe not by such a great margin. But should Randy act up in any way or miss a few games to minor injuries, how much closer do you project Brady to the rest of the pack?
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Can you win? Yes.
Does that make it the most sound strategy? I don't believe so.
I think it all comes down to your projections. If you think Brady throws 35 or more TDs and he does, then you're in like flint.
I have him projected at less than 40 TDs combined and it puts him into the late 1st. I have no desire to take my QB in Rd1 however.
If you want a QB early:
At 1.08 let's say you take Portis.
2.06 you can take Manning.
3.06 now you get your stud WR or great value at RB if it is there.
I prefer to take my QB later in this format. Yes I lose possible points per week at QB, but I'll take my chances.
I'd prefer Big Ben/Portis
to Brady/Willie Parker
But that's just me.
Does that make it the most sound strategy? I don't believe so.
I think it all comes down to your projections. If you think Brady throws 35 or more TDs and he does, then you're in like flint.
I have him projected at less than 40 TDs combined and it puts him into the late 1st. I have no desire to take my QB in Rd1 however.
If you want a QB early:
At 1.08 let's say you take Portis.
2.06 you can take Manning.
3.06 now you get your stud WR or great value at RB if it is there.
I prefer to take my QB later in this format. Yes I lose possible points per week at QB, but I'll take my chances.
I'd prefer Big Ben/Portis
to Brady/Willie Parker
But that's just me.
2008- Didn't finish last overall in the Classic.
2009- Didn't finish last overall in the Classic or Primetime.
2009- Didn't finish last overall in the Classic or Primetime.
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
For quite some time now, the motto of fantasy football is/was "GET YOUR RUNNING BACKS EARLY!".
While it is important to get production from RB, the QB position has gone "by the waste side", and people have waited and waited to get their "thrower".
While I have been a proponent of "waiting on a QB", the NFFC offering 6 pts per TD, and the fact that this is one of the more "leaner" years to find a quality signal caller late makes me believe Brady IS worthy of a top 10 pick.
Let's be honest, Brady is as close to a "slam dunk" as there is in fantasy football. Year in and year out, first round RB's get injured, or they simply do not produce. Generally ANY of the top 3 consensus preseason QB's don't fall below #5, so Brady is a VERY safe pick.
As it has been mentioned, he is playing in a fantastic offense for a head coach who is probably STILL pissed about their Super Bowl loss. Do you not think Belichick is going to want to "stick it to everyone" again????...... don't count on it.
After the first 5 or 6 picks, he is definitely a consideration on my board.
The catch with taking Brady is you have to be VERY confident that you can pick one or two Wes Welker's/Derrick Mason's from last year along with nabbing a Ryan Grant/Earnest Graham on the wire. If you get a bunch of "unspectacular" guys, even a year like last year from Brady might not be enough to save you.
With all the Brady talk, people are forgetting about Manning. If Brady is "sure thing #1", then Manning is sure thing #1a". However, if you are picking 6th (for example), there is a VERY good chance (based on early drafts) that Manning would be available in round 2, so you could nail that STUD RB in round 1, and Manning in round 2.
While Brady was UNREAL last year, I don't think anyone believes he will throw 50 TD's again. Manning could really close on him this year, and it wouldn't be a total shocker if he was actually better.
So there in lies the dilemna of getting a QB early. Take Brady in round one, and build your team around him, or take a STUD RB in round 1 with Manning in round 2 (of course there are other options, but just giving one scenario).
Which is better?..... I guess we will know in about 6 months!
[ June 09, 2008, 10:00 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]
While it is important to get production from RB, the QB position has gone "by the waste side", and people have waited and waited to get their "thrower".
While I have been a proponent of "waiting on a QB", the NFFC offering 6 pts per TD, and the fact that this is one of the more "leaner" years to find a quality signal caller late makes me believe Brady IS worthy of a top 10 pick.
Let's be honest, Brady is as close to a "slam dunk" as there is in fantasy football. Year in and year out, first round RB's get injured, or they simply do not produce. Generally ANY of the top 3 consensus preseason QB's don't fall below #5, so Brady is a VERY safe pick.
As it has been mentioned, he is playing in a fantastic offense for a head coach who is probably STILL pissed about their Super Bowl loss. Do you not think Belichick is going to want to "stick it to everyone" again????...... don't count on it.
After the first 5 or 6 picks, he is definitely a consideration on my board.
The catch with taking Brady is you have to be VERY confident that you can pick one or two Wes Welker's/Derrick Mason's from last year along with nabbing a Ryan Grant/Earnest Graham on the wire. If you get a bunch of "unspectacular" guys, even a year like last year from Brady might not be enough to save you.
With all the Brady talk, people are forgetting about Manning. If Brady is "sure thing #1", then Manning is sure thing #1a". However, if you are picking 6th (for example), there is a VERY good chance (based on early drafts) that Manning would be available in round 2, so you could nail that STUD RB in round 1, and Manning in round 2.
While Brady was UNREAL last year, I don't think anyone believes he will throw 50 TD's again. Manning could really close on him this year, and it wouldn't be a total shocker if he was actually better.
So there in lies the dilemna of getting a QB early. Take Brady in round one, and build your team around him, or take a STUD RB in round 1 with Manning in round 2 (of course there are other options, but just giving one scenario).
Which is better?..... I guess we will know in about 6 months!
[ June 09, 2008, 10:00 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]