Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:32 am

Come on Mike, you've been hammering away at Tebow repeatedly. You've said you can't judge his production first because it was a small sample size. You said you wanted to see how he did in a month. You also said he needed to beat a good team.

Well in the last month, the Broncos have gone 3-1 with Tebow at QB and last night they beat a team many believe to be one of the best in the league. Certainly, the Jets' defense ranks among the best in the league - especially against the pass. He's passed both of the tests you insisted he had to pass before you would issue him any praise but despite that you still won't issue him any praise.

From a fantasy perspective, he's not a "marginal starter." The fact is you'd be hard-pressed to find a more consistent fantasy QB outside of the elite players at the position. If you start Tebow you can be confident that he will put up good to great numbers as long as he plays the entire game. He has done that in EVERY one of his starts. Every single one. Again, outside of the few elite QBs, how many other QBs can you say that about?

I think everyone is in agreement that Tebow has some major flaws in his game. But you insisted he do certain things and even after he's proven to be successful you still won't give him any credit. I'm not sure why you're fighting so hard against him at this point.

[ November 18, 2011, 01:33 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:42 am

Tom, I never said he had to "beat a good team". I could care less what he does in the NFL. I said he had to "SCORE WELL". There IS a difference.

The QB ranked 11th over the last 5 games in NFFC scoring IS a "marginal starter" because it means that nearly ALL of your competitors have better QBs. For those who waited to draft a QB and stocked up at other positions, maybe they're fine with the QB11. I certainly am not.

I'm not fighting hard against HIM Tom; it's evidently YOU I'm fighting - albeit certainly not meant in a confrontational or rude way; it's all in good fun, and please know that there's usually a smile on my face as I type these posts.

Back 4 weeks ago when I challenged him to score well vs. good teams, yes, I did think the Jets would be included in that. But I think we've seen since then that they really aren't very good. Yes, their pass D is still great, but Tebow doesn't really make his living in the air. Going into last night, the Jets were in the bottom third of run defenses; go figure, he ran well (on the last drive anyway).

I will admit that I've also learned that the strength of defenses may be largely irrelevant against him too. It seems that he's at his worst (for fantasy, not NFL, which is ALWAYS ugly! ) when facing good OFFENSES. He will face 4 pretty good offenses over the next 5 weeks (though BUF is questionable as still being "good"). Seeing most of those games are nearer the end of the season, the jury will be out until then.

[ November 18, 2011, 01:45 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:52 am

Mike, you challenged him to score well. He has. I'm fairly certain you made the point previously he hadn't faced a decent defense either. Well he's done both. The Jets may not be a good team but they clearly have a good defense, and a very good pass defense. Tebow has passed the tests you insisted he had to pass. You keep hammering away at him despite the fact he's done well for fantasy and the Broncos are winning at a high level with him. I simply think it's interesting that you still refuse to give him any credit for what he's done.

I noticed you ignored the point I made about Tebow's consistency. So let me bring up some examples:

Tebow's worst game in NFFC scoring came last night and he got 18 points. Of the QBs currently ranked ahead of him in average points per game, the following have all had worse games than that:

Philip Rivers (three games)
Ben Roethlisberger (four games)
Michael Vick (three games)
Tony Romo (two games)
Eli Manning (one game)
Matthew Stafford (one game)
Cam Newton (one game)
Drew Brees (one game)

The only two QBs not on that list are Rodgers and Brady. Everyone else - even Brees - has had at least one game worse than Tebow's worst. From a fantasy perspective, that type of consistency is huge. Fantasy owners can start Tebow every week secure with the knowledge that regardless of the opposition he is going to get you good-to-great production. I don't know how he does it and as I said way back when he got the starting job, from a fantasy perspective I don't care. I'm just enjoying the production.

[ November 18, 2011, 01:53 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

thegambler · Post by **thegambler** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:55 am

no matter who he beats there will be people to say: well, they must be a bad team. if he beats SD next week, people will say they, SD, are no good.

almost everyone thought the jets had/have a good def. hell, i thought the jets would kick their butts. but tebow found a way to win and score 19 pts. with bad play calling, bad wr's and bad rb's.

its almost like the coach's and managment want him to lose. i know that can't be true BUT trading away your best wr and then calling the game they called last night and the game before...has to make you wonder.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:59 am

From a fantasy perspective what Tebow did last night was huge. For him to come through with success against a great pass defense was a pretty big test. He certainly isn't going to face a pass defense this good the rest of the season and it's very possible the Jets will be the best defense overall he faces the rest of the way. The only way I'd be sitting Tebow at this point is if I had a stud QB. At the very least, he's a strong matchup play along with QBs like Roethlisberger, Rivers, Stafford and Newton. I think he has Top 10 potential the rest of the way.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:11 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Mike, you challenged him to score well. He has. I'm fairly certain you made the point previously he hadn't faced a decent defense either. Well he's done both. The Jets may not be a good team but they clearly have a good defense, and a very good pass defense. Tebow has passed the tests you insisted he had to pass. You keep hammering away at him despite the fact he's done well for fantasy and the Broncos are winning at a high level with him. I simply think it's interesting that you still refuse to give him any credit for what he's done.

I noticed you ignored the point I made about Tebow's consistency. So let me bring up some examples:

Tebow's worst game in NFFC scoring came last night and he got 18 points. Of the QBs currently ranked ahead of him in average points per game, the following have all had worse games than that:

Philip Rivers (three games)
Ben Roethlisberger (four games)
Michael Vick (three games)
Tony Romo (two games)
Eli Manning (one game)
Matthew Stafford (one game)
Cam Newton (one game)
Drew Brees (one game)

The only two QBs not on that list are Rodgers and Brady. Everyone else - even Brees - has had at least one game worse than Tebow's worst. From a fantasy perspective, that type of consistency is huge. Fantasy owners can start Tebow every week secure with the knowledge that regardless of the opposition he is going to get you good-to-great production. I don't know how he does it and as I said way back when he got the starting job, from a fantasy perspective I don't care. I'm just enjoying the production. I notice you conveniently focused just on last night's game. Have you noticed though that he's scored less than 20 in 3 of his 5 starts? That's a staggering 60% (and I really do expect that number to rise or at least remain consistent over the remainder of the season). I'm sorry, but I don't want anything to do with a fantasy QB who can't break 20 more often than not, especially if he's barely doing that by last-minute unsustainable heroics. :rolleyes:

If we're going to play numbers, let's get them ALL on the table? Here are the top 23 NFFC QBs in average PPG over their last 5 games each, and the number of games under 20 points each had:

1 Rodgers 0
2 Brees 1
3 Newton 2
4 Brady 0
5 EManning 1
6 Roethlisberger 2
7 Rivers 2
8 Romo 1
9 Stafford 2
10 Ryan 1
11 Tebow 3
12 Vick 2
13 Dalton 4
14 Sanchez 2
15 Schaub 2
16 ASmith 3
17 Freeman 2
18 Fitzpatrick 3
19 Cassel 4
20 Hasselbeck 4
21 Cutler 3
22 Flacco 4
23 McCoy 4

Tebow had 3 of those games. All of the QBs above him had less. AND... I suspect if we look at this again at the end of the season, he will have MORE (as a percentage of his games) than all of the QBs above him too. Yes, he's consistent in that he has shown a high floor so far. And I agree that is a good thing for fantasy H2H purposes. For pure scoring and winning scoring titles, consistency is not so important.

But yeah, I guess I'M the only one who is biased on this. Funny, I don't bring up his NFL wins or his perseverence or how much faith his team has in him or anything like that; I simply focus on the numbers. The bottom line is that I will NEVER give him ANY credit for his TEAM winning because it doesn't make a bit of difference in FANTASY football!

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:17 am

Mike, I focused on last night's game because that was his worst as a starter so far this season. Overall, he's QB11 currently in average points per game as a starter in the NFFC. And as I pointed out there are a large number of QBs ranked ahead of him who have done worse than his worst game. Some of them have been worse several times, making them far less reliable than Tebow has been thus far.

I'm glad you finally admitted that you will never give him any credit. That's all I was trying to get you to do.

Oh, one more thing ...

TEBOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ November 18, 2011, 02:18 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

CoMoHusker · Post by **CoMoHusker** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:51 am

Is 9/20 for 104 yards passing the test against a good pass defense? The Jets D dominated the game and Tebow for all but about five minutes.

The Jets pass defense did what every other team's pass defense will do against Tebow and that's allow very little. Where the Jets got burned was where Tim excels most, running and getting outside of the pocket. He had several key runs which included that TD within the last minute.

I think there are two very different arguements going on this thread. One gauging Tebow's fantasy relevance and the other about is ability to effectively play the position of QB. I think the two are very different.

I don't think that completing 44% of your passes, averaging 5.67 yds/ attempt, or having a passer rating of 78.4 equates to solid QB play. But when you factor in his intagibles of being able to run the football, he does score decent (nowhere near elite) fantasy points.

With that being said, winning ball games is all that matters and they weren't doing so with Orton behind center. Might as well see what Tebow can do over an extended period of time. Right now it's extremely ugly but generating wins for his team.

[ November 18, 2011, 02:55 PM: Message edited by: CoMoHusker ]

BLACKHAND · Post by **BLACKHAND** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:55 am

we all know the NFL is all about the money. tix are selling at denver. tebow jersey is on fire. so for now they will roll with tebow. thing is for an NFL team to be committed to the option will be hard. the chance of injury to an option qb is very high. so now how do you carry orton and quinn on your team. they cant run the option. you would need two other qb types like tebow with a guy like reggie bush. hard to build that type of team when you dont know if that style would even last the season.

[ November 18, 2011, 02:55 PM: Message edited by: THE_BLACKHAND ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:58 am

Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
Is 9/20 for 104 yards passing the test against a good pass defense? In terms of passing production absolutely not. It's pathetic. But more than 60 yards rushing, including a touchdown and leading the team to a victory while posting decent fantasy numbers against a strong defense is definitely passing the test in my opinion.

And I agree and have been saying since the start of the thread that there's a disconnect between Tebow's fantasy value and his production as an NFL quarterback. That said, he's leading the Broncos to victories and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was doing the same with his fantasy owners' teams.

[ November 18, 2011, 02:59 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]