Originally posted by RiFF:
quote:Originally posted by 3intboyBFD:
You cannot win picking a QB in the first 2 rounds. Unless everything elese goes perfect.
His position fills 1 spot out of 10 starters.
Even if he outscores his comepetition. The guys that drafted Romo/Big Ben in the 6th/7th or even later had teams loaded with more potential.
The reason Brady owners won is they had 3 players already on their team that did well THEN Brady went nuts.
Not the other way around.
3' What'sthe difference where the points come from? Do you get "bonus" points for having the highest scoring tandem of RB's or for having the highest scoring trio of WR's? NO. Of course for Brady to warrant a 1st round pick he'd have to score appreciably more than the "average" QB. He wouldn't necessarily need to average the 34+ points he did last year, but he'd have to be in the 28-30 point range. That would equate to about 3-5 points more than QB's 2-4, 5-7 for QB's 5-8 and about 10-11 points for QB's 9-14.
So, instead of taking a RB with pick #7, you take Brady. So you pass on Barber or Grant or Portis or LJ. Let's assume you miss onthe best of that bunch and pass on a RB that would have given you 18 points per game. So you end up taking a RB in the 6th or 7th round instead of a QB that you would have had to take if you hadn't taken Brady. Let's assume that RB only averages 9 points per game. If Brady gets his 29 points per game, (5+ less than last year) and your 7th round RB gets 9 that's 38 points per week.
If you picked the correct RB instead of Brady you would still need to get a QB to average 20 points per week in the 7th round to be at the same place as Brady and your 9 point per week RB got you.
Of course, last year stats are just that...last year's. So, if you don't believe Brady will get at least 35+ total TD's this year, then you'll want to get that 18 point per week RB. But if you go that route, make sure to avoid the RB that gets injured or the one that averages 13 points instead of 18.
I guess I don't believe you need a "perfect" draft if you take Brady in the 1st; but you will need Brady to put up 1st round numbers to win.
Also, I disagree that last year Brady owners had 2 or 3 "top" players with Brady and that is why they won. In fact in many cases the Brady owners had S Jax or LJ and still won despite having a 1st round "flop" because they had Brady. [/QUOTE]You have many assumptions in your points.
I don't know exactly how many teams had Brady and won when they took him in the 4th round.
But for the group that did take him in the 4th and didn't win, how would they now win taking him in the 1st?
3'
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
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sportsbettingman
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Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
What are the stats for winning % of teams that took a QB in the first round...because that is what we are talking about for 2008, right?
~Lance
~Lance
"The first man what makes a move can count amongst 'is treasure a ball from this pistol."
~Long John Silver
~Long John Silver
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Route Collectors
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Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
What are the stats for winning % of teams that took a QB in the first round...because that is what we are talking about for 2008, right?
~Lance Probably no 2007 data on that one Lance. ADP for 1st round had 12 RB's and 2 WR's....no QB's.
Have to check every league to see if anyone at all took a QB in round 1.
What are the stats for winning % of teams that took a QB in the first round...because that is what we are talking about for 2008, right?
~Lance Probably no 2007 data on that one Lance. ADP for 1st round had 12 RB's and 2 WR's....no QB's.
Have to check every league to see if anyone at all took a QB in round 1.
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RI WORKHORSE
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Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by Route C:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
What are the stats for winning % of teams that took a QB in the first round...because that is what we are talking about for 2008, right?
~Lance Probably no 2007 data on that one Lance. ADP for 1st round had 12 RB's and 2 WR's....no QB's.
Have to check every league to see if anyone at all took a QB in round 1. [/QUOTE]RC,
A guy in my league in Tampa took Peyton manning in the 1st round....But he sucked anyway.
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
What are the stats for winning % of teams that took a QB in the first round...because that is what we are talking about for 2008, right?
~Lance Probably no 2007 data on that one Lance. ADP for 1st round had 12 RB's and 2 WR's....no QB's.
Have to check every league to see if anyone at all took a QB in round 1. [/QUOTE]RC,
A guy in my league in Tampa took Peyton manning in the 1st round....But he sucked anyway.
I.W
Johnny Frisella
Johnny Frisella
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Riff,
I agree with you completely. Statistically it makes perfect sense.
Every year there are players who win their leagues even though they select a first round flop. So now you can't win your league with a first round stud QB? The draft is about more than one pick. Look at Go Gettas team from last year. They had several flops in the first 8-9 picks yet won the overall. They even chose Kitna early and picked up Anderson off the waiver wire.
I"m not taking Brady over a proven stud RB in the first but why not take him over a RB with a huge question mark - ie: Larry Johnson, Marshawn Lynch. The league is won in the later rounds and through the waiver wire. You just need solid picks that produce fairly well in the first few rounds. Our team tied for first in our league last year with Marvin Harrison as our 2nd round pick and Grossman as our Qb. Would we have been better with Brady as our 2nd round pick?
I have always been on the other side of the early QB debate but I think Riff makes an excellent point. I may not take Brady but I would consider it at this point in time.
Wayne
I agree with you completely. Statistically it makes perfect sense.
Every year there are players who win their leagues even though they select a first round flop. So now you can't win your league with a first round stud QB? The draft is about more than one pick. Look at Go Gettas team from last year. They had several flops in the first 8-9 picks yet won the overall. They even chose Kitna early and picked up Anderson off the waiver wire.
I"m not taking Brady over a proven stud RB in the first but why not take him over a RB with a huge question mark - ie: Larry Johnson, Marshawn Lynch. The league is won in the later rounds and through the waiver wire. You just need solid picks that produce fairly well in the first few rounds. Our team tied for first in our league last year with Marvin Harrison as our 2nd round pick and Grossman as our Qb. Would we have been better with Brady as our 2nd round pick?
I have always been on the other side of the early QB debate but I think Riff makes an excellent point. I may not take Brady but I would consider it at this point in time.
Wayne
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by 3intboyBFD:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
quote:Originally posted by 3intboyBFD:
You cannot win picking a QB in the first 2 rounds. Unless everything elese goes perfect.
His position fills 1 spot out of 10 starters.
Even if he outscores his comepetition. The guys that drafted Romo/Big Ben in the 6th/7th or even later had teams loaded with more potential.
The reason Brady owners won is they had 3 players already on their team that did well THEN Brady went nuts.
Not the other way around.
3' What'sthe difference where the points come from? Do you get "bonus" points for having the highest scoring tandem of RB's or for having the highest scoring trio of WR's? NO. Of course for Brady to warrant a 1st round pick he'd have to score appreciably more than the "average" QB. He wouldn't necessarily need to average the 34+ points he did last year, but he'd have to be in the 28-30 point range. That would equate to about 3-5 points more than QB's 2-4, 5-7 for QB's 5-8 and about 10-11 points for QB's 9-14.
So, instead of taking a RB with pick #7, you take Brady. So you pass on Barber or Grant or Portis or LJ. Let's assume you miss onthe best of that bunch and pass on a RB that would have given you 18 points per game. So you end up taking a RB in the 6th or 7th round instead of a QB that you would have had to take if you hadn't taken Brady. Let's assume that RB only averages 9 points per game. If Brady gets his 29 points per game, (5+ less than last year) and your 7th round RB gets 9 that's 38 points per week.
If you picked the correct RB instead of Brady you would still need to get a QB to average 20 points per week in the 7th round to be at the same place as Brady and your 9 point per week RB got you.
Of course, last year stats are just that...last year's. So, if you don't believe Brady will get at least 35+ total TD's this year, then you'll want to get that 18 point per week RB. But if you go that route, make sure to avoid the RB that gets injured or the one that averages 13 points instead of 18.
I guess I don't believe you need a "perfect" draft if you take Brady in the 1st; but you will need Brady to put up 1st round numbers to win.
Also, I disagree that last year Brady owners had 2 or 3 "top" players with Brady and that is why they won. In fact in many cases the Brady owners had S Jax or LJ and still won despite having a 1st round "flop" because they had Brady. [/QUOTE]You have many assumptions in your points.
I don't know exactly how many teams had Brady and won when they took him in the 4th round.
But for the group that did take him in the 4th and didn't win, how would they now win taking him in the 1st?
3' [/QUOTE]Lou, you stated..."You cannot win picking a QB in the first 2 rounds. Unless everything elese goes perfect.".....maybe it's more understandable for you if I just say.....You CAN win picking Brady in the 1st round and everything else not going perfectly. I merely tried to embellish my initial response. Sorry if that confused the issue.
Obviously, you aren't going to win merely by taking Brady; whether it's in the 4th round or the 1st round. You'll probably have to average around 140 points per week to win your league; if Brady gives you 30, you'll still need around 110 from the rest of your team. If like last year he gives you 35, then you'll need about 105 from the rest of your team.
Conversely, if you select a RB in round 1 that averages 18 points per week you'll need an additional 122 points from the rest of your team.
Either approach is doable; I'm just of the opinion that the Brady approach is easier if in fact he is able to, again, produce around 30 points per week.
It doesn't matter where the 140 points come from, but if you get them you have a good chance of winning;if you don't average the 140 points then your chances diminish. Brady WON'T average 140 points, so you'll need help elsewhere.
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
quote:Originally posted by 3intboyBFD:
You cannot win picking a QB in the first 2 rounds. Unless everything elese goes perfect.
His position fills 1 spot out of 10 starters.
Even if he outscores his comepetition. The guys that drafted Romo/Big Ben in the 6th/7th or even later had teams loaded with more potential.
The reason Brady owners won is they had 3 players already on their team that did well THEN Brady went nuts.
Not the other way around.
3' What'sthe difference where the points come from? Do you get "bonus" points for having the highest scoring tandem of RB's or for having the highest scoring trio of WR's? NO. Of course for Brady to warrant a 1st round pick he'd have to score appreciably more than the "average" QB. He wouldn't necessarily need to average the 34+ points he did last year, but he'd have to be in the 28-30 point range. That would equate to about 3-5 points more than QB's 2-4, 5-7 for QB's 5-8 and about 10-11 points for QB's 9-14.
So, instead of taking a RB with pick #7, you take Brady. So you pass on Barber or Grant or Portis or LJ. Let's assume you miss onthe best of that bunch and pass on a RB that would have given you 18 points per game. So you end up taking a RB in the 6th or 7th round instead of a QB that you would have had to take if you hadn't taken Brady. Let's assume that RB only averages 9 points per game. If Brady gets his 29 points per game, (5+ less than last year) and your 7th round RB gets 9 that's 38 points per week.
If you picked the correct RB instead of Brady you would still need to get a QB to average 20 points per week in the 7th round to be at the same place as Brady and your 9 point per week RB got you.
Of course, last year stats are just that...last year's. So, if you don't believe Brady will get at least 35+ total TD's this year, then you'll want to get that 18 point per week RB. But if you go that route, make sure to avoid the RB that gets injured or the one that averages 13 points instead of 18.
I guess I don't believe you need a "perfect" draft if you take Brady in the 1st; but you will need Brady to put up 1st round numbers to win.
Also, I disagree that last year Brady owners had 2 or 3 "top" players with Brady and that is why they won. In fact in many cases the Brady owners had S Jax or LJ and still won despite having a 1st round "flop" because they had Brady. [/QUOTE]You have many assumptions in your points.
I don't know exactly how many teams had Brady and won when they took him in the 4th round.
But for the group that did take him in the 4th and didn't win, how would they now win taking him in the 1st?
3' [/QUOTE]Lou, you stated..."You cannot win picking a QB in the first 2 rounds. Unless everything elese goes perfect.".....maybe it's more understandable for you if I just say.....You CAN win picking Brady in the 1st round and everything else not going perfectly. I merely tried to embellish my initial response. Sorry if that confused the issue.
Obviously, you aren't going to win merely by taking Brady; whether it's in the 4th round or the 1st round. You'll probably have to average around 140 points per week to win your league; if Brady gives you 30, you'll still need around 110 from the rest of your team. If like last year he gives you 35, then you'll need about 105 from the rest of your team.
Conversely, if you select a RB in round 1 that averages 18 points per week you'll need an additional 122 points from the rest of your team.
Either approach is doable; I'm just of the opinion that the Brady approach is easier if in fact he is able to, again, produce around 30 points per week.
It doesn't matter where the 140 points come from, but if you get them you have a good chance of winning;if you don't average the 140 points then your chances diminish. Brady WON'T average 140 points, so you'll need help elsewhere.
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by 3intboyBFD:
I don't know exactly how many teams had Brady and won when they took him in the 4th round.
But for the group that did take him in the 4th and didn't win, how would they now win taking him in the 1st?
I think many here are missing this key point. I remember making this exact argument after owners were drafting Peyton in the first round after his record breaking year - extremely unsuccessfully, I might add.
Last year, 9 of the 26 teams which owned Brady made the NFFC playoffs. 8 first place and 1 second. That's 34%. This is after drafting him in the neighborhood of the 4th round. That means that 66% of the teams who drafted a 50-touchdown QB in the 4th round DID NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. Think about that.
Now, let look forward to this year. Assume for a second that Brady will have the same stats as in 2007 - which is a pretty BIG assumption - I think most would agree. Now, if LAST year, 66% of the teams that drafted Brady in the 4th didn't make the playoffs, isn't only logical to assume that this rate or losing will only increase significantly for teams now drafting him in the first round, would you say? I think it's safe to say that this rate would be up around 80% range.
And now lets go a step further and be more realistic about Brady's numbers for this year. If he did come back down to the 4000/32 range, now you have reduced your chances of winning even more after drafting him in the 1st.
To me, this is simple deductive reasoning. There is no reason to make assumptions on the rest of the draft - it likely has no bearing on the overall outcome. Simply look at winning statistics. Can you win by taking Brady in the 1st? If you want to be a stickler for semantics, then I guess the answer is yes. But realistically, it's very difficult.
[ June 12, 2008, 09:51 AM: Message edited by: Nag' ]
I don't know exactly how many teams had Brady and won when they took him in the 4th round.
But for the group that did take him in the 4th and didn't win, how would they now win taking him in the 1st?
I think many here are missing this key point. I remember making this exact argument after owners were drafting Peyton in the first round after his record breaking year - extremely unsuccessfully, I might add.
Last year, 9 of the 26 teams which owned Brady made the NFFC playoffs. 8 first place and 1 second. That's 34%. This is after drafting him in the neighborhood of the 4th round. That means that 66% of the teams who drafted a 50-touchdown QB in the 4th round DID NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. Think about that.
Now, let look forward to this year. Assume for a second that Brady will have the same stats as in 2007 - which is a pretty BIG assumption - I think most would agree. Now, if LAST year, 66% of the teams that drafted Brady in the 4th didn't make the playoffs, isn't only logical to assume that this rate or losing will only increase significantly for teams now drafting him in the first round, would you say? I think it's safe to say that this rate would be up around 80% range.
And now lets go a step further and be more realistic about Brady's numbers for this year. If he did come back down to the 4000/32 range, now you have reduced your chances of winning even more after drafting him in the 1st.
To me, this is simple deductive reasoning. There is no reason to make assumptions on the rest of the draft - it likely has no bearing on the overall outcome. Simply look at winning statistics. Can you win by taking Brady in the 1st? If you want to be a stickler for semantics, then I guess the answer is yes. But realistically, it's very difficult.
[ June 12, 2008, 09:51 AM: Message edited by: Nag' ]
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Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
YOU SUMMED IT UP IN A NUTSHELL THERE ALEX. THAT IS TOUGH POINT TO DEBATE.
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Ted's Cracked Head
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Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Lou,
At this level you HAVE to have the perfect draft to win it all. Yes, you also have to stay healthy but it all starts at the draft.
Brady is just one player and will not carry a team but I draft to end up with ____ points per week (varies from year to year). If I see players who I believe will be available in later rounds who may allow me to take Brady early and deliver my desired pts/wk, then that is a winning formula.
Before this thread was started I was setting my KDS to try and accomplish just this. Take Brady in the 1st and see how the rest of the draft goes. I will know for sure if it fits my style and projections for this year in a few months after trying it in mocks and satellites. Maybe I will use this method on August 30th and maybe I will have proven to myself that I cannot make it work from certain slots in the first.
This is exactly why I play in satellites. To take different draft ideas out for real test drives.
Riff, I obviously agree. I draft my "core" players to deliver ____ pts per week. If they stay healthy and meet my projections, I am going to win.
At this level you HAVE to have the perfect draft to win it all. Yes, you also have to stay healthy but it all starts at the draft.
Brady is just one player and will not carry a team but I draft to end up with ____ points per week (varies from year to year). If I see players who I believe will be available in later rounds who may allow me to take Brady early and deliver my desired pts/wk, then that is a winning formula.
Before this thread was started I was setting my KDS to try and accomplish just this. Take Brady in the 1st and see how the rest of the draft goes. I will know for sure if it fits my style and projections for this year in a few months after trying it in mocks and satellites. Maybe I will use this method on August 30th and maybe I will have proven to myself that I cannot make it work from certain slots in the first.
This is exactly why I play in satellites. To take different draft ideas out for real test drives.
Riff, I obviously agree. I draft my "core" players to deliver ____ pts per week. If they stay healthy and meet my projections, I am going to win.
My mama says she loves me but she could be jiving too! BB King
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by 3intboyBFD:
I don't know exactly how many teams had Brady and won when they took him in the 4th round.
But for the group that did take him in the 4th and didn't win, how would they now win taking him in the 1st?
I think many here are missing this key point. I remember making this exact argument after owners were drafting Peyton in the first round after his record breaking year - extremely unsuccessfully, I might add.
Last year, 9 of the 26 teams which owned Brady made the NFFC playoffs. 8 first place and 1 second. That's 34%. This is after drafting him in the neighborhood of the 4th round. That means that 66% of the teams who drafted a 50-touchdown QB in the 4th round DID NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. Think about that.
Now, let look forward to this year. Assume for a second that Brady will have the same stats as in 2007 - which is a pretty BIG assumption - I think most would agree. Now, if LAST year, 66% of the teams that drafted Brady in the 4th didn't make the playoffs, isn't only logical to assume that this rate or losing will only increase significantly for teams now drafting him in the first round, would you say? I think it's safe to say that this rate would be up around 80% range.
And now lets go a step further and be more realistic about Brady's numbers for this year. If he did come back down to the 4000/32 range, now you have reduced your chances of winning even more after drafting him in the 1st.
To me, this is simple deductive reasoning. There is no reason to make assumptions on the rest of the draft - it likely has no bearing on the overall outcome. Simply look at winning statistics. Can you win by taking Brady in the 1st? If you want to be a stickler for semantics, then I guess the answer is yes. But realistically, it's very difficult. [/QUOTE]Those are some alarming numbers Nag. Thanks for the post... To know that only 34% of the teams that had Brady last year (at a 4th round bargain no less) made the playoffs is amazing to me, and really puts this topic to bed in my mind. Can you win taking him in the first? Yes. Will I try it? Not likely. That's coming from an owner that had to rely on the waiver wire (Derek Anderson) to save his season in '07. There are many good cases made for both sides in this thread, that's what makes these type questions so much fun.
quote:Originally posted by 3intboyBFD:
I don't know exactly how many teams had Brady and won when they took him in the 4th round.
But for the group that did take him in the 4th and didn't win, how would they now win taking him in the 1st?
I think many here are missing this key point. I remember making this exact argument after owners were drafting Peyton in the first round after his record breaking year - extremely unsuccessfully, I might add.
Last year, 9 of the 26 teams which owned Brady made the NFFC playoffs. 8 first place and 1 second. That's 34%. This is after drafting him in the neighborhood of the 4th round. That means that 66% of the teams who drafted a 50-touchdown QB in the 4th round DID NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. Think about that.
Now, let look forward to this year. Assume for a second that Brady will have the same stats as in 2007 - which is a pretty BIG assumption - I think most would agree. Now, if LAST year, 66% of the teams that drafted Brady in the 4th didn't make the playoffs, isn't only logical to assume that this rate or losing will only increase significantly for teams now drafting him in the first round, would you say? I think it's safe to say that this rate would be up around 80% range.
And now lets go a step further and be more realistic about Brady's numbers for this year. If he did come back down to the 4000/32 range, now you have reduced your chances of winning even more after drafting him in the 1st.
To me, this is simple deductive reasoning. There is no reason to make assumptions on the rest of the draft - it likely has no bearing on the overall outcome. Simply look at winning statistics. Can you win by taking Brady in the 1st? If you want to be a stickler for semantics, then I guess the answer is yes. But realistically, it's very difficult. [/QUOTE]Those are some alarming numbers Nag. Thanks for the post... To know that only 34% of the teams that had Brady last year (at a 4th round bargain no less) made the playoffs is amazing to me, and really puts this topic to bed in my mind. Can you win taking him in the first? Yes. Will I try it? Not likely. That's coming from an owner that had to rely on the waiver wire (Derek Anderson) to save his season in '07. There are many good cases made for both sides in this thread, that's what makes these type questions so much fun.
"That's how you become great man, hang your balls out there"