Quitters ruin this contest....

bobsgym13 · Post by **bobsgym13** » Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:22 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by BillyWaz:
No, it may take a few years, but over time.....yes. you do realize "instances of luck" are independent of themselves, meaning if someone lost tom brady last year, their "luck" moving forward is EXACTLY THE SAME as all non-brady owners. [/QUOTE]If we start a coin toss contest and I win the first 17 times, after 2000 tosses we will be at so close to 50/50 that the 17 will have had little relevance.

There is a luck fairy and its name is Time.

Bob

[ November 14, 2009, 12:24 PM: Message edited by: Bob Squad ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:37 am

Originally posted by Bob Squad:
If we start a coin toss contest and I win the first 17 times, after 2000 tosses we will be at so close to 50/50 that the 17 will have had little relevance.

There is a luck fairy and its name is Time.

Bob you are right, after 2000 years of playing in the NFFC, luck should be evened out by then.

too bad i estimate the average number of years that someone plays in the NFFC is probably gonna be around 5, just 1,995 years short

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:53 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Bob Squad:
If we start a coin toss contest and I win the first 17 times, after 2000 tosses we will be at so close to 50/50 that the 17 will have had little relevance.

There is a luck fairy and its name is Time.

Bob you are right, after 2000 years of playing in the NFFC, luck should be evened out by then.

too bad i estimate the average number of years that someone plays in the NFFC is probably gonna be around 5, just 1,995 years short [/QUOTE]I agree 4 1/2 like the Players in the NFL. That's why what Billy has pulled off is unreal or Lucky.

Some say the Skill shows up in the Cmampionship Round. I think that's what Tom was trying to tell me at this year's draft.

John

bobsgym13 · Post by **bobsgym13** » Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:55 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Bob Squad:
If we start a coin toss contest and I win the first 17 times, after 2000 tosses we will be at so close to 50/50 that the 17 will have had little relevance.

There is a luck fairy and its name is Time.

Bob you are right, after 2000 years of playing in the NFFC, luck should be evened out by then.

too bad i estimate the average number of years that someone plays in the NFFC is probably gonna be around 5, just 1,995 years short [/QUOTE]The biggest events - Brady injury - take years to even out.

I equated 17 tosses to one major injury - It's quite a leap to take that as me saying 2000 years.

Bob

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sat Nov 14, 2009 7:02 am

"Not So Random After All
By FREAKONOMICS

The random coin toss must be one of society’s most frequently used decision-making mechanisms. We use the coin toss to choose which movie to see, to determine team positions in major sporting events, to divvy up household chores, and even name cities. But it may be that the the random coin toss isn’t so random. A 2007 study found that a vigorously flipped coin is likely to land on the same side it started on at least 51 percent of the time , possibly more depending on the person doing the flipping."

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2 ... after-all/

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Sat Nov 14, 2009 7:02 am

Originally posted by Bob Squad:
The biggest events - Brady injury - take years to even out.I wonder just how big a loss Brady was to fantasy teams last year?

I mean, aside from the psycholgical aspect, the top QB last year was Brees, at 28 pts/gm. Assuming Brady did that, there were another 15 QBs who averaged within 10 pts/gm of that. So at worst, the loss of Brady should've probably accounted for about 10 pts/week.

I would suggest that QUANTITY of losses was a bigger loss. For example, if one were to lose their top 4 draft picks for at least a few weeks apiece and/or if any of them were without their starting QB or some key lineman, etc. for a period... wouldn't those teams likely have lost far greater than 10 pts/gm?

[ November 14, 2009, 01:04 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Nov 14, 2009 7:06 am

Originally posted by Bob Squad:
The biggest events - Brady injury - take years to even out.
are you saying a 2008 brady owner will receive more good luck than bad luck moving forward?

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Sat Nov 14, 2009 7:10 am

Huh?

I'm not making any reference to future or luck or random odds, etc.. I simply don't think that losing Brady alone was THE most devastating fantasy football plight last year (tho certainly the single most dramatic!).

[ November 14, 2009, 01:10 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

bobsgym13 · Post by **bobsgym13** » Sat Nov 14, 2009 7:16 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
"Not So Random After All
By FREAKONOMICS

The random coin toss must be one of society’s most frequently used decision-making mechanisms. We use the coin toss to choose which movie to see, to determine team positions in major sporting events, to divvy up household chores, and even name cities. But it may be that the the random coin toss isn’t so random. A 2007 study found that a vigorously flipped coin is likely to land on the same side it started on at least 51 percent of the time , possibly more depending on the person doing the flipping."

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2 ... after-all/ I always doubt the controls used in studies like this. Did they adequately vary tossers, heighth of drop, surfaces, etc...

Studies show that consuming a glass of wine a day has many health benefits - is it that people that are capable of drinking just one glass a day are less stressed - is it that the antioxidants in grapes supply the benefits ... Statistics lead to so many wrong assumptions.

Statistics don't lie - people using them do.

Bob

bobsgym13 · Post by **bobsgym13** » Sat Nov 14, 2009 7:19 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Bob Squad:
The biggest events - Brady injury - take years to even out.
are you saying a 2008 brady owner will receive more good luck than bad luck moving forward? [/QUOTE]No, I don't think there is some karma-force ready to even things out.

You're hung up on being too literal. I consider 800 bad breaks and 803 good breaks an even split.

Bob

[ November 14, 2009, 01:29 PM: Message edited by: Bob Squad ]