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Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu May 22, 2008 8:57 am

Originally posted by Diesel:
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Diesel:
I put the cents there because the insurance company will too. It makes it seem like they really know what the hell they are talking about, when they add on a few cents... Sorry, you lose. There are no cents (or sense) at the insurance company.

One flat fee with odds better than this happening once every 100 years. In fact, I'll narrow it to between 5 and 50 and take two of the choices off the board. How's that?

All I can say is that the more I talk about this the more it somehow has to be done. Folks I'm talking to on the phone are buzzed about the chance to win a major bonus. Yeah, everything has to fall right, but dammit, anything is also possible. We'll see how we can do something about this, but it's going to take some time on our end to figure it out. All I know is that a lot of our serious players like the concept and it could be the best damn day any of us have ever had!!

[/QUOTE]So you're saying I didn't win a drink ticket?

)) [/QUOTE]You were saying that the insurance company was using common "cents", which is like saying a politician puts the needs of his/her constituents ahead of their personal gains.

So yeah, no drink ticket for you Mr. Diesel.

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Thu May 22, 2008 10:11 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Raiders:
153,500 to 1. So the odds are good it won't happen at all. But you never know.

Okay, let me add one more twist to the debate. Everyone keeps concentrating on the fact that we'll have 392 teams in one contest and 396 in another and thus the odds of one team winning both contests is 1:155,232. I wish the insurance company viewed it the same way, but they don't. Basically, I think they see it as a 1:396 chance.

But let's break it down even further. With each contest having wild cards, we're probably looking at something like 62 playoff teams in the NFFC and 74 playoff teams in the NBC FFC. Out of those teams, how many do you think will have duplicate owners? Do you think it's possible that 10 owners will make the Championship Round in each contest? 15? 20? 25? Maybe 30?

I think we all agree it's possible for someone to finish first or second in both leagues, right? There are enough talented owners in our contests to win both and with the way signups are going I'd say we'll have 100+ owners doing both main events. So imagine if 25 owners were in the Championship Round of each contest. Now what are the odds of winning both titles??

I'm not telling the insurance company these numbers, but I think if you look at it this way, you can see that it is possible for someone to do the impossible. It certainly can be done.

Okay, now who wants to submit another guess on the insurance quote and the number of years the insurance company thinks this can be accomplished in?

[/QUOTE]Here's how I'd break down playoff analysis. Approximately 15% of teams make the playoffs in each game. If 100 owners are in both contests the chance of one of those owners making either playoff is at least 15% (assumes they are at least average skill ..probably above average..which if they are playing both contests seems like a fair assumption). So each contests has about 15+ of these dual managers in the show. Now we have to determine how many of the 15+ in each are the 15+ in the other. If half of them are the same it would be about 8+ in both. Already the odds of those 8 winning both would be better than 1 in 100. To get the odds down to about 1 in 30 that I predicted before the number of dual playoff teams would need to be about 10+ assuming they are of slightly better skill than typical playoff team. At 13 dual teams they could be about average skill level.

Why wouldn't the 15%+ in one tourney be independant of 15%+ in the other and thus only have 2 or 3% of the 100 dual managers make both playoffs? Because in the same draft year these dual managers aren't drafting completely differently. A lot of overlap is going to occur. Think about how you do in your good years vs your down years...don't your teams success have some correlation? You're targeting some of the same players over and over and you are avoiding some of the same players over and over.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu May 22, 2008 10:16 am

Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Raiders:
153,500 to 1. So the odds are good it won't happen at all. But you never know.

Okay, let me add one more twist to the debate. Everyone keeps concentrating on the fact that we'll have 392 teams in one contest and 396 in another and thus the odds of one team winning both contests is 1:155,232. I wish the insurance company viewed it the same way, but they don't. Basically, I think they see it as a 1:396 chance.

But let's break it down even further. With each contest having wild cards, we're probably looking at something like 62 playoff teams in the NFFC and 74 playoff teams in the NBC FFC. Out of those teams, how many do you think will have duplicate owners? Do you think it's possible that 10 owners will make the Championship Round in each contest? 15? 20? 25? Maybe 30?

I think we all agree it's possible for someone to finish first or second in both leagues, right? There are enough talented owners in our contests to win both and with the way signups are going I'd say we'll have 100+ owners doing both main events. So imagine if 25 owners were in the Championship Round of each contest. Now what are the odds of winning both titles??

I'm not telling the insurance company these numbers, but I think if you look at it this way, you can see that it is possible for someone to do the impossible. It certainly can be done.

Okay, now who wants to submit another guess on the insurance quote and the number of years the insurance company thinks this can be accomplished in?

[/QUOTE]Here's how I'd break down playoff analysis. Approximately 15% of teams make the playoffs in each game. If 100 owners are in both contests the chance of one of those owners making either playoff is at least 15% (assumes they are at least average skill ..probably above average..which if they are playing both contests seems like a fair assumption). So each contests has about 15+ of these dual managers in the show. Now we have to determine how many of the 15+ in each are the 15+ in the other. If half of them are the same it would be about 8+ in both. Already the odds of those 8 winning both would be better than 1 in 100. To get the odds down to about 1 in 30 that I predicted before the number of dual playoff teams would need to be about 10+ assuming they are of slightly better skill than typical playoff team. At 13 dual teams they could be about average skill level.

Why wouldn't the 15%+ in one tourney be independant of 15%+ in the other and thus only have 2 or 3% of the 100 dual managers make both playoffs? Because in the same draft year these dual managers aren't drafting completely differently. A lot of overlap is going to occur. Think about how you do in your good years vs your down years...don't your teams success have some correlation? You're targeting some of the same players over and over and you are avoiding some of the same players over and over. [/QUOTE]Good points and I'll add one more thought to this: Remember, you are using KDS/3RR for both leagues, so it's very possible for owners to target certain players in both leagues and possibly have somewhat similar rosters for both events. Let's say that last year an owner targeted Moss, Brady and Adrian Peterson and hit all three in both leagues. They'd likely have a good chance at winning both events. I'm not saying the odds are good that it will happen, but KDS/3RR does give owners more of a say in where they draft and obviously how both teams are constructed in the race for the two $100,000 grand prizes and the possible bonus prize.

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Thu May 22, 2008 10:23 am

If the insurance company isn't factoring in skill and overlap of players on teams of same owner it seems possible that the premium could be a bargain and maybe less than half of what I originally thought(32.5-40K). If they are charging less than 15K I'd say it is a bargain and may be a very good marketing tool as well as an acheivable/reachable goal for a good/great player even if they think it is a dream right now.

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Thu May 22, 2008 10:37 am

GREG- I'd be interested to hear what you think is a doable premium for the insurance...could you justify it as a marketing expense? If not, with prices already set, how would it be paid for if you did it this season?

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu May 22, 2008 10:38 am

Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
[QUOTE]QUOTE]Already the odds of those 8 winning both would be better than 1 in 100.Lightning, its true that the odds of one of the 8 winning each event is in the 1-100 range, but that certainly doesn't mean the odds are better than 100-1 that the SAME one of the 8 wins both events. That'a much lower, not factoring in skill.

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Thu May 22, 2008 10:43 am

Riff- I was saying if 8 managers made both playoffs. Then over 1/10 (8/62,8/74) in each playoff would be eligible teams. 1/10 X 1/10 would be 1/100. 8/62 X 8/74 would be closer to 1/70 even if you say those 8 are only the same skill level as other playoff teams

[ May 22, 2008, 04:43 PM: Message edited by: Lightning Fast Whip ]

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu May 22, 2008 10:47 am

Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
Riff- I was saying if 8 managers made both playoffs. Then over 1/10 (8/62,8/74) in each playoff would be eligible teams. 1/10 X 1/10 would be 1/100. 8/62 X 8/74 would be closer to 1/70 even if you say those 8 are only the same skill level as other playoff teams Agreed, but those are not the odds for the SAME one of the 8 winiing BOTH events. Which is what is required to win the bonus.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu May 22, 2008 10:53 am

Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
GREG- I'd be interested to hear what you think is a doable premium for the insurance...could you justify it as a marketing expense? If not, with prices already set, how would it be paid for if you did it this season? That's what we're looking into. Obviously it would be a marketing expense and an expense we'd eat as part of our partnership and plan to grow this area of our events. There are ways to justify it and ways to pay for it and we're working on all of that right now. It makes perfect sense for our two different formats, our two main events on the same day, and our passionate owners who seem to love the concept with a bonus prize.

So nothing will be announced soon because the price is not $1,000 or $5,000 or $10,000. If it was, I'd announce this promotion today. I spend more than that on magazine ads, so this insurance premium would be money well spent and would replace my other marketing plans. But it's more than that and thus we need to figure this all out.

But it's only May and we have time to do it. So stay tuned.

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Thu May 22, 2008 10:54 am

What fascinates me about this discussion is that some of the top players who have some pretty large egos are among those saying how this is such an incredible longshot. If the insurance company sees it that way ..all the better to make this happen...but I suppose I expected a different attitude/optimism among the NFFCs best.