Live Chat With Greg A. On Wednesday, 11 a.m. EST

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Thu May 15, 2008 1:06 pm

Originally posted by 4D:

As to the number of common entrants, the fact that you COULD win a million if you entered both events would lead to more entering both events, which is the whole idea behind offering the prize, right? Yes, 50% at most....

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Thu May 15, 2008 1:08 pm

Originally posted by RiFF:
quote:Originally posted by 4D:
[
As to the number of common entrants, the fact that you COULD win a million if you entered both events would lead to more entering both events, which is the whole idea behind offering the prize, right? Agreed, that's how I get to a 50% overlap, without the bonus incentive I do not believe it approaches 50%
And actually, I believe the objective of the incentive is marketing and name recognition. This should get a lot of press and make a much larger audience aware of NFFC/NBC than would otherwise be aware of these contests. [/QUOTE]If I was underwriting this, I'd assume the higher-skill player is more likely to enter both than the population at large - so even if the population is 50/50 overlap, the probability of Player X being in both would be higher.

[ May 15, 2008, 07:21 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu May 15, 2008 1:30 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
quote:Originally posted by 4D:
[
As to the number of common entrants, the fact that you COULD win a million if you entered both events would lead to more entering both events, which is the whole idea behind offering the prize, right? Agreed, that's how I get to a 50% overlap, without the bonus incentive I do not believe it approaches 50%
And actually, I believe the objective of the incentive is marketing and name recognition. This should get a lot of press and make a much larger audience aware of NFFC/NBC than would otherwise be aware of these contests. [/QUOTE]If I was underwriting this, I'd assume the higher-skill player is more likely to enter both than the population at large - so even if the population is 50/50 overlap, the probably of Player X being in both would be higher. [/QUOTE]Maybe, but I'm not sure. The person willing to toss in another $1300. isn't necessarily more skilled. He just has another $1300. he's willing to play. And again, after taking out the dead-money, which I believe will overlap at about the same percentage as the more skilled player, everyone is on more or less equal footing in each contest.
But, I agree an underwriter is going to view it as conservatively as possible. Which would probably increase the premium beyond the theoretical risk level.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu May 15, 2008 1:30 pm

My question to those who planned to play both before and after the "Million Dollar" addition...

Would you tend to draft more similar players than before...trying to hit the big prize...or would it be business as usual with taking what the league gives you and spreading out risk by having LESS common players?

~Lance

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu May 15, 2008 1:49 pm

By the way, I can't believe the "Skilled" player already looking at these contests is going to be strongly drawn to the bonus. If he's going to enter both contests, he probably will regardless of the bonus.
Assuming, at this level there is 25% dead money,
(which I think is high, I believe its actually probably more like 10%) and everyone else is more or less equally skilled; anyone's chance of winning the bonus is about 90,000-1. (300x300) I find it hard to believe that many who aren't otherwise planning to enter both events would spend an additional $1300. for a 90,000-1 shot at winning $1 Million. I do believe the $1 million bonus would generate a lot of interest and that both the NFFC and NBC contests would get additional entries based on the exposure this would generate. And some of those additional entries would join both contests.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu May 15, 2008 2:15 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
My question to those who planned to play both before and after the "Million Dollar" addition...

Would you tend to draft more similar players than before...trying to hit the big prize...or would it be business as usual with taking what the league gives you and spreading out risk by having LESS common players?

~Lance If I entered both contests I would attempt to put together the best team possible in each contest with absolutely no regard with what players I selected in each league. If I ended up with a very similar looking team in each league...fine,(actually it wouldn't be fine, I'd expect a much better looking team in a 12 team league vs. a 14 team league) conversely, if I didn't have one common player on either team that would be fine also. Again, I'd just go for the best team possible in each league.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu May 15, 2008 2:23 pm

Originally posted by RiFF:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
My question to those who planned to play both before and after the "Million Dollar" addition...

Would you tend to draft more similar players than before...trying to hit the big prize...or would it be business as usual with taking what the league gives you and spreading out risk by having LESS common players?

~Lance If I entered both contests I would attempt to put together the best team possible in each contest with absolutely no regard with what players I selected in each league. If I ended up with a very similar looking team in each league...fine,(actually it wouldn't be fine, I'd expect a much better looking team in a 12 team league vs. a 14 team league) conversely, if I didn't have one common player on either team that would be fine also. Again, I'd just go for the best team possible in each league. [/QUOTE]From a logic standpoint...it would seem you'd have a decreased chance at winning both events (like that's even a consideration...I'm just speaking on that goal)...if you had your core players being all different.

Example...you could select your KDS to be say 12 in the 12 team league, and 10 in the 14 team league if you were targeting that "ADP 20" as your 2nd round pick in both events. Maybe you reach a half round or more on some players you covet, to secure them in both leagues.

Drafting two totally different teams and winning both events is a joke...your fortune would have to ride on a few similar breakout players during both the draft and through bidding IMO.

~Lance

[ May 15, 2008, 08:24 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu May 15, 2008 2:31 pm

I've never paid attention, but in the four years that NFFC has been in existence has the winning teams from the NFFC and WCOFF been similar looking in any year?

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu May 15, 2008 2:58 pm

Originally posted by RiFF:
I've never paid attention, but in the four years that NFFC has been in existence has the winning teams from the NFFC and WCOFF been similar looking in any year? I was thinking the same thing.

But that would be more random chance...as opposed to one guy planning to win both.

I may have tequila flawed logic about now.

~Lance