Shawn Siegele's Zero RB Theory Gets Attention

[Greg Ambrosius]

Shawn & Ty Siegele had a history-making season in the NFFC last year and now Shawn has become pretty popular on Twitter and SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio thanks to his Zero RB Theory. Here are a couple of articles about Shawn's success and his contrarian thinking:

http://thefantasyfootballgirl.com/zero- ... rb-theory/

http://zachlawonline.com/2014/01/13/ask ... ana-stand/

http://rotoviz.com/2013/11/zero-rb-anti ... -drafting/

What do you think, is this the new wave of the future in fantasy football? Is it a winning strategy in the NFFC? Or is it time to find a different contrarian idea? Let's debate.

[RiFF]

Wow...if he managed to win a National Contest without drafting a RB prior to round 6, there might be something to his madness. Hard to believe anyone won a major contest last year without Charles (based on his week 14,15,16 production) on their roster...and obviously he was long gone by round 6. But, any "theory" can be effective if you draft the right players. And, It's been proven time and again that RB's are more likely to incur an injury than a WR; but people who drafted players like Julio, Cobb or Maclin last year know, first hand, WR's aren't immune to injury. And of course with the change in rules favoring the passing game and the introduction of many more RBBC's, WR's have naturally "bubbled" to the top of many draft boards.
Personally, I still prefer starting a draft with a stud RB, and that probably won't change....again I find it hard to believe someone won a major event last year without Charles. But, if I can't get one of the top RB's, I certainly can see the merit in considering Shawn's advice/theory. I'd much rather start a draft with a couple WR's (or 3 or 4) that I'm projecting to score around 300 points than a RB or 2 that I project scoring 220-240. And as was indicated by Shawn and proven in many studies those RB's are more likely to incur an injury.
Ideally, you've calculated how many points it will take to compete in your league format...getting to that point total can be achieved in a number of different ways....starting with 4 WR's and 1 TE, is certainly one of them. Of course, another thing to consider is if muiltiple teams are attempting to employ a given strategy, it will probably become much more difficult to successfully execute that strategy.
What is probably obvious...you must maintain flexibilty and be willing to adapt given the flow of any particular draft. For me that has generally meant drafting the bpa with each pick at least through the single digit rounds. That could certainly end up being 4 RB's and 1 TE through 5 rounds or any other combination of RB, WR, TE or QB.

Thanks for posting the articles Greg, they were a nice read. And when someone wins consistently, it certainly makes sense to listen to their advise and incorporate it into your own thinking.

[greenwichsttavern]

J Charles was on his championship team

[The Franchise]

I'm not going to knock his strategy or anyone else's. More power to them, but it's not like he won the Overall using this strategy and even his 2nd place team had Charles on it if I remember correctly.

With that said, I think you need to be an experienced drafter/player in order to use this strategy and win consistently or you need to get really lucky. A lot of factors need to be considered.

[RiFF]

J Charles was on his championship team

Whoops...my bad...thought he was putting forth his winning strategy....hhmmm, maybe he was...tell everyone to draft WR's and TE's and leave the RB's for him...lol.

jk

[RiFF]

or you need to get really lucky. .

Personally, that's the strategy I usually hang my hat on....

[David U Kennedy]

Any draft I won in the past was anchored by 4 or 5 studs. Guys that I targeted and ended up being right about. I don't believe in any one way to win drafts. It comes down to your knowledge and a draft going your way. Going heavy in any one direction is rigid and senseless. Last year if you started out drafting Graham, Peyton, and Knowshon you were well on your way to a championship. Hardly anybody's strategy. Knowledge + Luck meeting opportunity that's a winning formula. I think if you hit on 4 studs within 6 rounds or so that's how you end up winning a draft. You can find bargains and free agents to fill the rest of your line up.

[lumpy463]

This really just seems to be an extreme extension from the draft 3 WR first strategy used by some from the beginning of the NFFC.
It was not popular initially, but when guys started to win people took notice. Now more people go WR-WR-WR
Based on the changes to NFL with pass happy offenses and more RBBC, this seems like a very logical progression over time to me.
Just a creative way to name it, but not sure its that radical of a new idea!

Derek "Lumpy" Anderson

[Henry Muto]

"What do you think, is this the new wave of the future in fantasy football? Is it a winning strategy in the NFFC?"

I find this interesting how so many people are jumping on going WR's early this year. Why do I find it interest you ask ? Well back in 2003 someone in his first ever high stakes contest went WR/WR/WR/WR to start their draft and no other team in that contest even went more than 2 WR's to start let alone 3 or 4. In fact only 1 other team out of all of them went WR/WR the rest went at least 1 RB in their first 2 picks with over half going RB/RB.

This strategy back in 2003 when high stakes contests were just being born back then was so strange to everyone that people were posting on the message board "Dead Money" and "I wish had some of whatever that guy was smoking who drafted all those WR's"

No one knew what to make of this strategy but it was pretty much assumed this guy would fail with such a crazy strategy.

Man that would sure make for some story if only we knew what happened that year or to that guy.

On a side now in 2012 when I beat 1872 teams I started my draft QB/TE and only took 1 RB in the first 6 rounds so maybe we will call that "almost zero RB theory"

[Azzurri]

I have been off Stud RB theroy for a long while now as i seen the NFL passing game taking off in the early-mid 2000's and began drafting accordingly esp in ppr leagues id go stud WR for as long as they were still on boards I've been doing this for 5-6 years or more now, not every draft but lots of them or exactly no rbs till round six or past but more or less pretty close. Never lost a year net cash since doing drafts like this before for that matter as im sure most of the successful top players around here have also but just had to say. I must also you MUST hit one at least one productive running back and hope he stays healthy and also pick up one productive RB during waivers in season to make this system work. i only read the subject line and dint check into his exact theory cuz i don't need to i use my own but i have been off RB's for quite some time now. I will go RB if i get a top 3 pick some years(like this) and then do my stud wr/te thing for like the next 5-7 in a row and that seems to be very successful as well... But Rb guys don't get me wrong winning teams can of course still be had going rb/rb/rb still then you must hit on the right mid fid wrs and id just rather find the middle fiddle rbs than wrs now a days. Rbs are being phased out of the game it seems as just it seems like their are not enough great work horse backs to build offenses around i think and the new passing systems are really working well with the right QBs in place.

Good Luck all this year,

DT-Azzurri