32 Teams In 32 Days: Green Bay Packers

[Tom Kessenich]

Next up on our team previews are the Green Bay Packers. The first year AB (After Brett) proved to be an extremely painful one for the Packers. With Favre gone to the Jets, the Packers went from being one game away from the Super Bowl to finishing a dismal 6-10 in one of the NFL¹s weakest divisions. The Packers need to bounce back in a big way this season or else head coach Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson could come under fire. Green Bay has plenty of offensive weapons, led by QB Aaron Rodgers, and they¹re hoping that switching to a 3-4 front will improve their defense. That needs to happen if the team is going to vault past Chicago and Minnesota and get back to the playoffs.

Here's a look at the Packers for 2009:

Projected lineups, with starters first:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, Brian Brohm

RB: Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson,, DeShawn Wynn, Korey Hall, John Kuhn, Quinn
Johnson

WR: Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Ruvell Martin

TE: Donald Lee, Jermichael Finley, Tory Humphrey

K: Mason Crosby

Defense: 2008 20th in total yards allowed, 7 defensive TDs, 2 special teams
TDs

2008 Record: 6-10, Third Place
2009 Prediction: 8-8, Third Place

Current Average Draft Positions on MockDraftCentral.com using NFFC scoring
system:

Greg Jennings, 24th
Ryan Grant, 36th
Aaron Rodgers 43rd
Donald Driver 92nd
Mason Crosby, 157th
Green Bay D, 186th
Brandon Jackson, 209th
Jordy Nelson, 269th
Donald Lee, 271st
James Jones, 27th

Analysis: Last season was probably the most difficult year of Aaron Rodgers' life. Not only did he have to replace an icon in Brett Favre, he had to deal with the drama surrounding Favre's un-retirement, eventual trade to the Jets and the season-long comparison between the two players. Rodgers handled everything with class, grace and - best of all for the Packers ­ talent. Although he struggled to come up big in several fourth-quarter situations, his production as a first-year starter was impressive. He threw for 4,038 yards and 28 TDs and ranked second among QBs in standard scoring leagues. Rodgers threw two TDs or more and passed for 245 yards or more in 10 games. He has one of the deepest WR corps in the league and a quality RB in Ryan Grant to provide offensive balance. If Rodgers can improve his production in the clutch, he could take the next step and become a great NFL QB. But he's
proven to be a terrific fantasy starter and will again be a Top 5 producer at this position in 2009. The Packers curiously are considering signing Michael Vick to be Rodgers' backup. Given how Vick was a poor QB for the Falcons and spent the last two years in prison, it's difficult to see how he will help the team in any meaningful way. If he does sign with Green Bay, he
would have no fantasy value unless he was forced to take over if Rodgers got hurt. If that were to occur, the Packers' season would be over.

Ryan Grant never really got untracked last season. He spent most of training camp in a contract holdout and suffered a hamstring injury shortly after signing a new contract. The injury derailed the start of his season and he spent most of the year trying to catch up. He did top 1,00 yards (finishing with 1,203) but his TD output was cut in half, falling from 8 to 4, and he was a non-factor in the passing game, catching only 18 passes. He's healthy and has been in camp from the outset this year, both of which have us
expecting Grant to return to being a solid RB1 with Top 10 potential. The receptions won't be there, but the rushing yardage and TDs will be. Grant is a terrific RB2 or a fine RB1 if you load up on other positions in the first 2-3 rounds. Brandon Jackson is currently the backup, but he's being pushed hard by DeShawn Wynn in camp. Wynn is the more talented RB with Jackson being the better receiver at the present time. Given Jackson's lack of standout ability, don't be surprised if Wynn takes the backup job at some
point. He isn't being drafted in many leagues which means you can grab him late, stash him away and see what transpires in the Green Bay backfield.

The Packers are loaded at WR. Greg Jennings has emerged as the No. 1 option and the team rewarded him for his production in the offseason, signing him to a three-year contract extension worth a reported $27 million. Jennings set career highs in receptions and receiving yards in 2008 and caught at least five passes in 10 games. He's a big-play threat who can make catches all over the field. Jennings has become a standout WR1 option in fantasy leagues and is well worth targeting in the second round of drafts. While Jennings is garnering most of the attention, veteran Donald Driver is slipping through the cracks. That's a mistake because Driver can still play at a quality level. Although his receptions declined for the second straight year in 2008, he still caught 74 passes and topped 1,000 yards receiving for the fifth straight season and sixth time in seven years. He also more than doubled his TD output, catching five touchdowns after scoring only twice in 2007. He's better used as a WR3 in PPR formats but despite the fact he's 34
and no longer the prime option in the Green Bay passing game he's still talented and productive. Don't sleep on him in your draft. James Jones and
Jordy Nelson are in a spirited battle for the No. 3 job. Jones is the superior talent but Nelson showed more consistency as a rookie last season.
Whoever wins the job has some mild fantasy upside because this is a passing offense and there will be enough receptions available for a third receiver to make an impact. My money is on Jones winning the job with Nelson getting enough snaps during the season to irk Jones owners.

With Favre gone, Donald Lee's production tailed off considerably at TE. Lee went from catching 48 passes and six TDs with Favre in 2007 to 39-5 with
Rodgers last year. He was held to two receptions or fewer in nine games and was held under 50 yards receiving in every game. He's nothing more than a weak TE2 in larger leagues. It's possible Jermichael Finley could push him for playing time this season, but the TE isn't a staple in the Packers' passing game like it was under Favre so there's no reason to get excited about any Green Bay player at this position this season.


Mason Crosby wasn't as spectacular last season as he was in his rookie year of 2007 but he still tied for seventh in the league among kickers in scoring with 127 points. He made two or more FGs in nine games and produced double-figure scoring in seven games. He converted 79.4 percent of his FG attempts and made 8 of 12 FGs from beyond 40 yards. Backed by a potent offense, Crosby will receive plenty of scoring chance again this season. He has Top 5 potential and is a fine fantasy starter.

The Packers' defense struggled to stop teams last season, allowing 23.8 points per game. But they were a massive source of TDs, scoring seven
defensive touchdowns and adding a pair of special teams scores. That made them a quality fantasy starter for much of the season. The team is switching to a 3-4 look under new coordinator Dom Capers and how quickly the team adjusts to the new look will likely define their season. The Packers have an active group of LBs and a ball-hawking secondary so at the very least, they
should generate their fair share of TDs again. They're a Top 10 fantasy defense in 2009.

That's our take on the Packers in 2009. Who else has some insights on the Packers for 2009? Predictions on the team's record or our projected stats? Let's see them and keep this thread current throughout the off-season. Thanks all.

[eddietheking]

This is a good write up Tom. I can see Green Bay winning 8 or so games the first ten weeks of the season, but their schedule is tough to finish out, with just 1 or 2 extra wins in Nov/Dec = playoffs. A bit pessimistic about the change to a 3-4 on D for the first year, even with Dom Capers.
And to think my 49ers could have the local CAL QB Rodgers!!20-20 hindsight is always brilliant.

[Old School]

Originally posted by Eddie the King:
This is a good write up Tom. I can see Green Bay winning 8 or so games the first ten weeks of the season, but their schedule is tough to finish out, with just 1 or 2 extra wins in Nov/Dec = playoffs. A bit pessimistic about the change to a 3-4 on D for the first year, even with Dom Capers.
And to think my 49ers could have the local CAL QB Rodgers!!20-20 hindsight is always brilliant. Don't remind me about our Niners passing on Rodgers. Lingering bitterness....The one year we get the overall #1 pick , and we land Alex Smith

Even though the Bears and Vikes are in the division, the easy schedule will find the Pack winning 11 games and playoff appearance...

[Tom Kessenich]

The Niners weren't the only team to pass on Rodgers. Plenty of teams screwed the pooch that year letting him fall as far as he did. But given how badly the Niners need a QB and given how they did have Rodgers ranked No. 1 for quite awhile before the draft, there's no doubt that was a horrendous decision to back off him and turn their attention to Smith.

[Tom Kessenich]

Given how Favre is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and one of the greatest QBs of all time, I don't think it was a reach for me to be praising his virtues, Glenn. As far as Rodgers, he did what most first-time starting QBs who take over for a legend typically don't do - he played well. He also stayed healthy which was a major question many people had about him going into the season.

He played well though his shaky work in the clutch was a big reason why the Packers had a horrible season. But most first-time starters struggle in some regards so that's not an indictment on Rodgers. He looks like he's going to be a good and possibly very good NFL quarterback.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by Eddie the King:
[qb] Even though the Bears and Vikes are in the division, the easy schedule will find the Pack winning 11 games and playoff appearance... [/QUOTE]

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by Eddie the King:
This is a good write up Tom. I can see Green Bay winning 8 or so games the first ten weeks of the season, but their schedule is tough to finish out, with just 1 or 2 extra wins in Nov/Dec = playoffs. A bit pessimistic about the change to a 3-4 on D for the first year, even with Dom Capers.
And to think my 49ers could have the local CAL QB Rodgers!!20-20 hindsight is always brilliant. When you think back to that draft, the Niners could have easily taken either QB, but Smith coming out of that pro-style offense that Urban Meyer designed to perfection made him the correct choice. Tall, good arm, smart kid, a little moxy, he seemed to have it all. Rodgers had that goofy throwing motion that NEVER would have cut it in the NFL.

Now consider: If the Niners had taken Rodgers No. 1 and thrown him to the wolves as a starter as a rookie I swear he'd be out of the league now. He would NOT have survived long enough to get to where he is now. Rodgers was very fortunate to sit for three years under Favre, to learn the offense, to work on his arm strength and throwing motion and prepare for being a starting QB. He's MUCH better off thanks to falling 20 spots in the draft.

If the roles had been reversed and Smith had sat down for three years, I think he would have been better prepared to become a starting NFL quarterback. As it is now, he looks like a mess mechanically and his confidence is pretty low. I hope he makes it, I really do, but I'm convinced he was hurt by going No. 1 and being asked to start right away.

Matthew Stafford, take note.