Week 3 Thoughts & Observations

[Tom Kessenich]

Here are some random thoughts and observations about Week 3 as I wonder if someone bound and gagged Derek Carr before last night's game in Washington and replaced him with his older brother.

Six running backs had first-round ADPs in the NFFC this year. We could see as many as 10 in 2018 at the rate things are going. Todd Gurley has regained his first-round standing and three rookies (Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook) could go in Round 1 as well by the time next year rolls around. A first round entirely comprised of running backs and Antonio Brown? Don't think that's too crazy folks.

In his last 10 games, Jay Ajayi has posted two 100-yard rushing games. He hasn't topped 61 in the other eight, including five games under 50 and two under 20. The primary issues I had with Ajayi's ADP were lack of involvement in the pass game (which has continued), extreme volatility in production (which has also continued) and troublesome TD potential (care to guess if it's continued?). So far everything that worried me about Ajayi's ADP has come to pass. Obviously two games this season is a really small sample size but when you extend back to last season and the same issues remain in place it's worth noting.

Bottom line: I like Ajayi as a solid RB2 who should've been drafted in the third or fourth rounds. Taking him late first, early second was a really bad idea. But you watched Sunday's pathetic performance so you already knew that, right?

Sometimes, you hit on a tougher call that comes through and sometimes you say A.J. Green is going to destroy a putrid Green Bay defense in Week 3 which was the slam dunkiest of slam dunk calls one could make this week. It all kind of evens out in the long run.

I know the Bengals are 0-3 but I would be encouraged if I was a fan of their team today. First off, they lost to Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau in a game nobody should have expected them to win so there's no need to get overly worked up about that. But on the plus side, their new offensive coordinator remembered A.J. Green is A.J. Green, Andy Dalton didn't completely melt down, the defense flashed with takeaways and sacks and Joe Mixon looked every bit the part of a true lead back. I'm typically a glass is half empty and the glass has a hole at the bottom kind of guy but if I'm in Bengals Land today I'm thinking there's a chance we can turn this season around.

Speaking of Rodgers, if you're wondering why the NFL is sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo much better than college football all you needed to have done was watch what Rodgers and Tom Brady did to win their respective games on Sunday. That was true greatness on display, the likes of which hopefully won't go away any time soon.

At 8:30 am Eastern Time I went on Twitter and decreed that Sunday was Brandin Cooks Day (#BrandinCooksDay). I would very much like to think Brandin Cooks for making me look much smarter than I really am.

If you are a Cooks owner, Week 2 was a major league kick in the nuts but you knew a game like the one he had on Sunday was coming. He's too talented, Brady's too talented, and the Patriots didn't give up what they did to get Cooks not to take full advantage of his talent. But I'm not gonna lie, that sure was an awful lot of fun to watch.

Brady put up 50.5 points in NFFC scoring on Sunday.

FIFTY FREAKIN POINT FIVE.

Holy balls.

Just.

Holy balls.

One week after looking like a bad Division 3 quarterback, Case Keenum looked like Joe Montana because of course he did and you're all idiots for not knowing he was gonna play like that.

Jameis Winston is a very talented quarterback but his vision still is a work in progress. He threw some truly awful passes against the Vikings. A player of his stature with his experience has got to be better. I think Mike Evans might agree with me on that.

I don't know what Blake Bortles ate and drank in London but the Jaguars really need to bottle it.

I'll say again that Leonard Fournette falling into the fourth round of drafts, which happened a lot in the last few weeks of NFFC drafts, was absolutely ridiculous. That was a gift everyone who passed on him in the third round gave to the owners who got him in the fourth. He is an absolute stud.

A few weeks ago I said on our Sirius show that Demaryius Thomas and Amari Cooper were the same player and it was crazy that Cooper was typically going 6-8 picks earlier in drafts. I would like to apologize for that comment and say that I was wrong. I was horribly, horribly wrong. Thomas and Cooper aren't the same player.

Thomas is better.

Yup.

It's only three games but the good at home/quiet on the road trend we're seeing from Martavis Bryant isn't the one Bryant owners were hoping for in his return to action this season.

Remember when everyone was writing Jordan Howard off after Week 2? Things sure move quickly in the NFL.

Tarik Cohen is ridiculously explosive. The Bears have a real weapon with him and as a Packers fan I don't see any way Green Bay can contain him on Thursday night.

Jacoby Brissett fantasy stud. Yup. Just like everyone predicted.

T.Y. Hilton. Stefon Diggs. Adam Thielen. I told everyone to get those three to their benches as fast as possible in Week 3. I'm smart.

I think Bill O'Brien is an intelligent guy and knows the game of football but can someone explain to me how in God's name he picked Tom Savage to be his Week 1 starter over DeShaun Watson? Seriously, explain it to me like I'm 5 because there isn't a single thing about that decision which makes a lick of sense. It didn't make any sense when it happened and it sure as hell makes no sense now.

Watson will make some mistakes but there is so much natural talent and ability. He traveled to Foxboro and went toe-to-toe with Tom Brady and nearly beat him and Bill Belichick. If the Texans can get their defense on track, the Texans are going to be an awful lot of fun to watch this season.

The Texans' D comes through against Tom Brady in fantasy. The Ravens' D soils the bed against Blake Bortles. Just like everyone predicted.

Josh McCown outplayed Jay Cutler on Sunday. Hey, that sounds familiar. It's almost as if that already happened before. Hold on, let me see if I can think of when ...

On behalf of DeVante Parker owners everywhere, I just wanna say I really love me some Garbage Time.

Odell Beckham is making it difficult to keep defending his behavior. So much talent. So little thought to the consequences of his actions.

It's time to officially be concerned about Cam Newton. The Saints are a matchup he has absolutely owned in recent seasons and he couldn't do a thing against their putrid defense. The O Line is struggling to run block and Cam isn't making enough special plays to offset the issues around him. This is a team in serious trouble and as I said last week they're putting way too much pressure on the defense, which also looked horrific against Drew Brees.

I know this will never happen but Sean Payton needs to put an end to the Adrian Peterson Plan and just go with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara at running back. Is there anyone on the planet not in the Peterson family who doesn't think that will work out extremely well?

Sometimes it's fun when predictable game scripts get flipped (i.e. Drew Brees struggles out of the dome) and sometimes it's fun when they don't (Ben Roethlisberger isn't as good on the road as he is at home). The NFL is cute that way.

Roethlisberger has a QB rating of 108.6 at home since the start of the 2015 season. It's 83.3 on the road. That's a real thing folks. Only Antonio Brown appears to be immune from its effects.

Russell Wilson sure looked like Russell Wilson on Sunday which is very good news for the Seahawks. The bad news? Holy crap, that D looked bad.

So much for the whole Derrick Henry thing. The Titans' backfield belongs to DeMarco Murray again. Yeah I know Henry got carries late but it's Murray first and foremost when he can play. Henry is just a handcuff.

I said before the season, the Titans' offense was the one under the radar that had the most potential to be one of the league's best this season. Complete and weapons across the board with a talented young quarterback.

As a Packers fan, I'd like to believe Golden Tate having a possible game-winning touchdown reversed by replay is poetic justice but it's not. It's not and it never will be.

Ever.

Jake Elliott acting like there was never a doubt in his mind he was going to drill a 61-yard game winning field goal is the kind of stuff that makes the NFL so great. Richard Sherman committing three penalties - THREE - on the same play? Not so much.

Kareem Hunt is going to score a TD covering 50 yards or more in every game, isn't he? We should just begin each week giving him those points.

This whole Chris Thompson thing sure looks legit, doesn't it?

And finally, if you started Case Keenum, Duke Johnson, LeGarrette Blount, Sterling Shepherd, Robby Anderson and Marcedes Lewis your girlfriend was secretly texting your best friend so they can hook up tonight while you're watching the Cowboys-Cardinals game. I'm not saying it's right and I'm not saying she should've done it but she did. But hey, great job in Week 3.

[RC Techies]

Love your observations as always. This week brought home a rule that I forget every year until I get kicked in the ass. Always play your studs even if they are hurt. I own Delmarco Murray in my Classic league. He had the late game and after listening to all the hype about how Derrick Henry was going to replace him and the expectation that he would not play much, I switched Gore into the running back spot and started Kendall Wright at the flex. Oh no, I couldn't stop there. I also own Jordan Reed in that league. I intentionally drafted Vernon Davis in case Reed could not start. So at the last minute I switched out Reed for Jack Doyle instead of going with my plan to play Reed or Davis. Sometimes this game can be harsh. Sad part, is that I will win the matchup but suck on points.

[Tom Kessenich]

Love your observations as always. This week brought home a rule that I forget every year until I get kicked in the ass. Always play your studs even if they are hurt. I own Delmarco Murray in my Classic league. He had the late game and after listening to all the hype about how Derrick Henry was going to replace him and the expectation that he would not play much, I switched Gore into the running back spot and started Kendall Wright at the flex. Oh no, I couldn't stop there. I also own Jordan Reed in that league. I intentionally drafted Vernon Davis in case Reed could not start. So at the last minute I switched out Reed for Jack Doyle instead of going with my plan to play Reed or Davis. Sometimes this game can be harsh. Sad part, is that I will win the matchup but suck on points.

Doyle wasn't a bad call. In fact, it was a pretty damn good one. I never kick myself for making the right call only to see it go south on me.

At least Gore didn't suck ass. Could've been much worse. You could've started Jay Ajayi.