Looking Ahead To 2011

[Tom Kessenich]

It's never too soon to start thinking about next season is it? Of course not. So with that in mind I've put together some (very) preliminary rankings at the four top fantasy positions. A lot of this will change in the months to come and there were some difficult positions to rank (RB and WR in particular where the depth looks terrific for 2011). But I thought I'd put something together and toss it out there for all of you to dissect.

So have it and let me know what you think.

QUARTERBACKS
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Tom Brady
4. Michael Vick
5. Peyton Manning
6. Philip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Matt Schaub
10. Eli Manning
11. Matt Ryan
12. Jay Cutler
13. Josh Freeman
14. Sam Bradford
15. Joe Flacco

COMMENT: I'm still of the belief that landing a stud QB is the way to go. And as we sit here today I'm willing to take Rodgers with the fifth overall pick. That's not a homer call either. I think he's worthy of that spot. The QB I want to watch most is Bradford. I love his talent and with McDaniels now the offensive coordinator Bradford could blow up and be a Top 10 QB in 2011. Of the QB2s with upside he's the one I like the most. I'd put Matthew Stafford in the Top 15 if I trusted him to stay healthy but right now I don't.

RUNNING BACKS
1. Arian Foster
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Chris Johnson
4. Maurice Jones-Drew
5. LeSean McCoy
6. Jamaal Charles
7. Ray Rice
8. Frank Gore
9. Michael Turner
10. Rashard Mendenhall
11. Matt Forte
12. Steven Jackson
13. Jonathan Stewart
14. Darren McFadden
15. Ahmad Bradshaw
16. Jahvid Best
17. Peyton Hillis
18. Ryan Mathews
19. DeAngelo Williams
20. Bejarvus Green-Ellis

COMMENT: Unlike 2010, there is outstanding depth at this position next season. There are a number of RBs outside the Top 10 who I really like so this definitely looks like a good year to look elsewhere besides RB in the first round if you're not sitting at the top of the round. I didn't put either Green Bay RB on the Top 20 because I'm not sure what the plan will be with Ryan Grant and James Starks. If either one of them is the lead RB without question I would put them in the Top 15. I really love the RB talent next season.

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Andre Johnson
2. Roddy White
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Hakeem Nicks
5. Reggie Wayne
6. Greg Jennings
7. Larry Fitzgerald
8. Dwayne Bowe
9. Marques Colston
10. DeSean Jackson
11. Vincent Jackson
12. Dez Bryant
13. Mike Williams (TB)
14. Kenny Britt
15. Wes Welker
16. Mike Wallace
17. Brandon Marshall
18. Miles Austin
19. Jeremy Maclin
20. Anquan Boldin
21. Sidney Rice
22. Johnny Knox
23. Pierre Garcon
24. Percy Harvin
25. Santonio Holmes

COMMENT: There is terrific depth at this position too and that makes it tough to sort through a lot of the WRs I have listed outside the Top 10. If the Cardinals get a decent QB, Fitz's value would soar obviously. I'm banking on Dez Bryant being WR1A for Dallas but I wouldn't sleep on Austin with Romo back. If you go QB-RB in the first two rounds, you should be able to load up at WR given the talent and depth available.

TIGHT ENDS
1. Dallas Clark
2. Antonio Gates
3. Jermichael Finley
4. Vernon Davis
5. Jason Witten
6. Owen Daniels
7. Tony Gonzalez
8. Chris Cooley
9. Zach Miller
10. Jimmy Graham

COMMENT: Things look much the same here as they did in 2010. Plenty of options to choose from. A healthy Owen Daniels strengthens the position and Jimmy Graham is my top TE sleeper for next season. I still think that given the depth here you don't need to chase after a Top 3 TE. Sit back, load up elsewhere and grab someone like Keller, Graham or Chris Cooley late. That's likely to be my approach.

[ February 11, 2011, 08:25 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

[Coltsfan]

Tom,

Thanks for putting out your preliminary rankings. I have a few thoughts.

QB

Last year Michael Vick averaged over 5 points/game more than the second place QB. That is an enormous gap! Why would he be 4th on your list? The rest look pretty good but I would definitely have Stafford in the top 15.

RB

That's not a bad list at all. I have them moved around a bit but pretty much the same group of players. There are two guys, one of which I have fairly high, that I would definitely have on this list. Those are Knowshown Moreno and Felix Jones. It looks like a solid list. Also, MJD went mid 2nd round in the trendsetters draft.

WR

I have the top 4 WR's in the exact same order you do. The funny thing is that my WR #5 didn't even make your top 25.

TE

I can't imagine Clark being the top TE next year. It would take at least a Gates injury and maybe Gates and Finley to be injured for this to happen. I also have Davis quite a bit lower and Graham higher. I would definitely have Cooley on the list ahead of Gonzo and Keller unless you're banking on Holmes and Edwards moving on somewhere else. One other thought, Gates was averaging 3.3 points per game more than TE 2 and 8.2 points per game more than TE 12 so I can easily see him being worth a high pick.

Thanks for posting this Tom!


Wayne

[Tom Kessenich]

Thanks Wayne. To answer your questions:

1. Vick had what could very well be a career year. I think he's still going to be a top fantasy player but he's less durable than the other QBs ahead of him which is one reason I rank him lower. I'm also not sure he can be that spectacular again.

2. I initially had Jones on the list but forgot about DeAngelo Williams, who if he ends up in Miami should be no worse than a solid RB2. I'm not a Moreno guy but he was solid when healthy. The problem is he always seems to be banged up. But he is among the group of guys outside the Top 20 (with Jones and the Green Bay RBs) I'd take as a RB2.

3. Who's your No. 5 WR? Maybe I missed someone.

4. I had the toughest time ranking the top of the TE group for the reasons you mentioned. That's a position I could definitely see me making some heavy adjustments to as we go along. That's why I would probably hold off on that position. I think there's more than enough depth to wait and grab someone later. Upon further review I would put Cooley ahead of Keller. I'm going to make that change now.

[ February 07, 2011, 02:01 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

[kentucky]

My guess for "COLTS FAN" Wayne's mystery man is "Mr Concussion" himself, Austin Collie..

[Tom Kessenich]

Originally posted by KyThunder:
My guess for "COLTS FAN" Wayne's mystery man is "Mr Concussion" himself, Austin Collie.. Yeah, that's someone I thought about putting in the Top 25 but I like Garcon quite a bit. Santonio Holmes is another guy who I really like as a WR2 but currently have ranked just outside the Top 25.

[Tom Kessenich]

Unless Wayne was thinking about Brandon Lloyd. I had a real tough time with him. His production this season really strikes me as an aberration. He's never been this good and when a veteran produces numbers dramatically different than previous seasons I tend to be skeptical that's anything more than an anomaly.

[kentucky]

Yeah, I totally agree on Lloyd. Collie averaged 18.8 FP/G in the games played last year. With Reggie yet another year older, he "could" be Peyton's look-to next year.

[Coltsfan]

I wouldn't put Lloyd in the top 25. If he breaks 200 next year I think it will be a good year for him.

Bill's right - it's definitely Collie. He was the number one fantasy WR last year in points per game played and definitely points per snap. (He played in 9 games but went out early twice so was actually only in a little over 7 games. He was on pace for about 370 fantasy points last year. Collie caught 80% of his pass targets while Garcon caught under 57% of his targets. Collie actually started over Garcon later in the season before his last concussion. I think Collie will put up double the points that Garcon does this coming year. One other thought on Collie. He doesn't have a history of concussions. He was just on the receiving end of some viscious helmet to helmet hits. Those could have happened to anyone. In my mind it was just bad luck on his part. We'll see what happens but I don't see Garcon being in the top 40 at WR next year.


Wayne

[Coltsfan]

Tom,

On Vick, he wouldn't have to be anywhere near that spectacular again to be the number 1 fantasy QB in 2011. Look at his numbers:

In 12 games last year he had 100 rushes for 676 yards and 9 touchdowns. What if he simply duplicated those numbers over 16 games? Passing he was 233/372 for 3018 yards and 21 touchdowns. If you pro-rate that out over 16 games you're looking at 300/500 for 3750 and about 26 touchdowns. (And that's actually backing off of his 2010 pace a bit.)

Anyways, that would put him at 448 fantasy points next year. I can't see Rodgers, Brady, or Brees coming close to those kinds of stats. Rodgers has a chance but it's not likely. The really interesting part is that Vick actually has upside to those numbers!

All of that being said I passed on him at 9th in the trendsetters draft but that was mostly because I have no idea who to back him up with. And since he is a high injury risk I really don't want to roll with him without his backup. Of course we'll know later in the year and that won't be an issue.


Wayne

[ February 07, 2011, 03:52 PM: Message edited by: Coltsfan ]

[Tom Kessenich]

Wayne, I think Vick could be the No. 1 QB in fantasy. I wouldn't rule it out. However, when I'm picking in the first round especially I want a player who not only has upside but has little downside. I think Vick has a lot of downside due to two primary factors - he'd never been this good and he's an injury risk due to his style of play. Rodgers, Brees and Brady all come with plenty of upside but far less downside.

Now any player can get hurt as Brady owners from three seasons ago can attest. But my philosophy in the first round is to avoid risk while targeting quality production. So when I combine those factors that leads me to rank Vick lower. I certainly wouldn't disagree with anyone who took him No. 1 among QBs but for me the risk is too great when there are other elite options to choose from.