Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 7:48 am

There hasn't been much discussion about Tim Tebow here which surprises me so I'm going to change that.

Last season, Tebow was the No. 1-ranked QB in many fantasy leagues during his three starts late in the season for the Broncos. In his one half of work against the Chargers, he put up 19.75 points. As a means of comparison, Aaron Rodgers is averaging 36.5 points per game in NFFC scoring this season.

So unconventional though he may be, there's little question that when given a chance to play extensively, Tebow has put up some impressive fantasy numbers.

After being named the starting QB last week by Denver he was one of the hottest pickups in the NFFC. Let's take a look:

Tebow was picked up in 12 Classic Leagues - average price spent was $480. He was added in 22 Primetime Leagues - average price spent was $396.

When you're spending upwards of 40 percent of your FAAB on a player you're only doing that if you believe he can come in and make a significant impact. So clearly, those who bid on Tebow last week believe he can once again be a standout fantasy QB.

Of course, those bids were made before the Brandon Lloyd trade. I've already seen one of my colleagues in this industry who I really respect back way off Tebow with Lloyd gone. While I agree the loss of a team's No. 1 WR can rarely be viewed in a positive light (unless the team has another No. 1 WR on the roster), I was still mildly surprised to see this person deliver such a significant downgrade to Tebow's value.

I grabbed Tebow in my top league and one of the FBG leagues. I didn't really need him in the latter league but I figured it couldn't hurt to get him in case he can provide a spark. In each case, I spent a hefty amount which everyone who got Tebow with one exception did last week in the NFFC as well.

So the price paid to get Tebow means people are really banking on him in some fashion. What I want to find out from everyone here is whether you believe Tebow can deliver. If you never believed in him before, let's here why. If you are a Tebow fan/owner and think he can put up strong QB1 numbers again let me here why you're in his corner. If you're skittish about Tebow with Lloyd gone I want to hear that as well.

It's safe to say we're going to hear A LOT of Tebow talk going forward and especially this week in his return to Florida. So what does everyone here think about him and his fantasy prospects?

renman · Post by **renman** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 8:25 am

Great point and topic Tom,

I personally do not think Tebow will approach the production he had last year in his 3 week stint. I think he caught the league by storm and we all know how much game planning and preparation are week to week in the NFL.

I think teams will game plan for him more, making it harder for him to run. I think they will force him to beat them with his arm and he will struggle to do it. I am not saying he will be bad. I certainly bid on him on a league I am hurting at QB (drafted Peyton). I just don't expect him to be a top 10 producing QB for the remainder of the year.

I do not think the loss of Lloyd is THAT huge because I think most of Tebow's passing production will be from out of the pocket after plays have broken down so it will be a "everyone try to get open and I will throw it to someone" type of passing offense. I think Lloyd's strength was in being a route runner and having great hands.

He does get to play the Dolphins first who offer limited challenge so it should get off to a good start.

mikenj46 · Post by **mikenj46** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:42 am

I picked up Tebow in my online championship league and a satellite league the week BEFORE the Charger game, for 10 dollars each.

In one league I have Fitzpatrick and in my other league I have Schaub. Both teams are in first place to this point, so I didn't necessarily need him in either league, but my backups aren't up to par and I could use the depth. It also kept him off someone else's team.

In a worst case scenario I think he puts up similar fantasy points to Fitzpatrick (15-18) and he only starts over Schaub in the bye week. In the best case scenario I think he puts up Schaub points(20-23 points a week) and could easily be my starting QB in my online league heading into the playoffs.

I don't expect him to be a 30 point guy, but I think he has that upside in certain weeks and has a chance to win me both leagues with big weeks in the playoffs.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Oct 19, 2011 2:52 am

Originally posted by mikenj46:

In a worst case scenario I think he puts up similar fantasy points to Fitzpatrick (15-18) and he only starts over Schaub in the bye week. In the best case scenario I think he puts up Schaub points(20-23 points a week) and could easily be my starting QB in my online league heading into the playoffs. That's my belief as well. Given how much I spent on Tebow in the two leagues I got him I definitely am hoping for the former and not the latter.

bald is beautiful · Post by **bald is beautiful** » Wed Oct 19, 2011 3:51 am

Tebow is the best upside waiver wire QB this year, other than perhaps Matt Flynn if Rodgers went down (perish the thought!).

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 7:08 am

If you're going with Tebow this week who are you starting him over? I have him in a 2-QB league and I'm starting him in one of my FBG leagues ahead of Kolb.

boutrous11 · Post by **boutrous11** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 8:20 am

i'm starting him over Flacco and Ryan.

Old School · Post by **Old School** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:46 am

Originally posted by Bald is Beautiful:
Tebow is the best upside waiver wire QB this year, Amen, Jack

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 4:37 am

Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by Bald is Beautiful:
Tebow is the best upside waiver wire QB this year, Amen, Jack

[/QUOTE]This is going to be like a home game for Tebow today. Hell, the Dolphins sold 20,000+ tickets once it was announced Tebow was the starting QB to force a sellout. If we're ever going to see the best of Tim Tebow, it's going to be today, in Florida, in front of his Gator fans and former teammates, in front of a winless Dolphins' defense.

I don't have Tebow in any fantasy leagues, but I'm rooting for him today. What the heck, Dolphins are in the Suck for Luck Sweepstakes and I'd like to see Tebow succeed. I think he puts up a 22+ point day.

particra · Post by **particra** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 6:19 am

Watching Tebow is like watching a high school offense.