.......... Enough is Enough ....... with the First Round Pick...!

D-Day Heroes · Post by **D-Day Heroes** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:48 am

......... Greg ..... Great response..!!! Tonights opening Night, so its time to bury this subject.... But let me just close with this. I'm so sick and tired of all these " Mamalukes " that put so much STOCK in the number one pick... or any first round pick..... I wish someone would do a POLL... and show how many times the guy with the number one pick.... WON THE LEAGUE. I'd Be willing to bet it is less than 20 %. So enough already with " My Fantasy World Revolves " around the first round.... their are 18 ROUNDS and most leagues are WON in the middle and late round PICKS........NUFF SAID...!

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 4:17 am

Originally posted by D-Day Heroes:
......... . I wish someone would do a POLL... and show how many times the guy with the number one pick.... WON THE LEAGUE. I'd Be willing to bet it is less than 20 %.In 14 team leagues if all draft postions won leagues an equal number of times, each draft position would win 7.14% of the time. So saying draft position 1 wins less than 20% of the time, which is almost 3 times the average, isn't exactly going out on a limb. And of course, any league can be won from any position. But, I believe this year draft positions 1, 2 and 3 will win their leagues much more than the statistical average would suggest (21.4%). The participants in those draft positions must still have a respectable draft throughout the entire 18 rounds and enjoy an average amount of "luck" regarding injuries, matchups, etc throughout the season. So, obviously the skill of each player is a big factor along with a little luck. But, if this year these 3 positions win their leagues 1 out of 3 times (because of the players available early in the draft from those positions), which would be 33% instead of the expected 21.4%, that's a HUGE statistical advantage over the other draft positions. Again, I agree that any league can be won from any draft position, but I also believe its tough to argue that the 1st 3 positions this year didn't start with an advantage.
In a 100 meter sprint, with 14 world class sprinters, if you gave a couple of those sprinters a 5 meter "head start" that would be a huge advantage. If the race was made up of both world class sprinters and High School sprinters, giving the High School sprinters a 5 meter advantage probably wouldn't alter the outcome of the race. And I believe in this analogy, the 1st 3 draft positions had the 5 meter head start; which can certainly be overcome. But if the people drafting out of those positions are "world class sprinters" and they don't pull a hamstring or trip and fall over those remaining 95 meters, overcoming that advantage will be a challenge. And for all of us without one of the 1st 3 slots, lets hope for a lot of pulled hamstrings!! (except for Steve Smith, who I drafted...oh well)

D-Day Heroes · Post by **D-Day Heroes** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 4:44 am

RIFF..... that was an excellent analysis of the Topic. I couldn't have summed it up better, BUT I still think Managers are to caught up in all the Hype over the TOP Three, that they lose perspective on the rest of the draft and to go one step further.... I don't believe there has been this many ???? marks on first round picks in a long , long time...... L-J____ one great year, and now he loses hall of fame blocker, Willie Roaf, ...... L-T_____ new QB, that always has an impact on the running game, good or bad, don't know yet..... S-A_____ about as consistent as they come, but a " Redwood " can only take so many hits before it goes, TIMBER...... Portis, already hurting.......Tiki.......surrounded by weapons and the Giants play a ton of High Ranked Run Stopper Defences this schedule. I honestly believe, this is the year you get another, Larry Johnson come out of nowhere, fantasy MVP...!!!

D-Day Heroes · Post by **D-Day Heroes** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 6:23 am

............ Hey Reptile ......... Where was Larry Johnson drafted last year..... Mr. Drop-Off in Talent.... ?

Jersey Dawg · Post by **Jersey Dawg** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 6:28 am

This year the advantage is clearly top 3 picks and this is an especially bad year for 14 team leagues to try to cut into that advantage.

Last year a large majority of teams with LT or SA were in the top 4 league finihsers, and those smart enough to draft LJ joined them. What hurt those teams was if they coupled their top draft choice with TO. Otherwise they were golden. Will there be another LJ this year? Perhaps. But ask me again if I prefer the 13th position to a top 3 and I'll keep repeating the same answer "NO".

Best of luck to all of us drafting from anywhere but the top 3. We'll need it.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 6:30 am

Originally posted by SNAKE:
...you guys BOTH miss the point entirely...IT'S THE FIRST THREE SLOTS FOR THE FIRST THREE ROUNDS COMRADES!!!...and if you can't spot the dropoff in available talent after the first 32 picks, well then...you're simply not a hare but rather a tortoise...SNAKE "(because of the players available early in the draft from those positions)," I was not limiting my observation to just the 1st round picks. But thanks for asking...

D-Day Heroes · Post by **D-Day Heroes** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 7:03 am

________ So many species , I couldn't quite figure out which one you were, then it bit me, your either the " Texas Blind Snake " or the " Western Blind Snake " either way.... You still can't " SEE "... LOL ...________________FAMILY LEPTOTYPHLOPIDAE (slender blind snakes)
This family of snakes is composed of 50 species in two families. They are generally regarded as the most primitive snakes, having a pelvic girdle and vestiglial hind limbs. They have a single lung and oviduct and are well adapted to their burrowing life style. They feed exclusively on small invertebrates such as ant and termite larvae. Leptotyphlopids are oviparous. There are two species of this family in North America.
Leptotyphlops dulcis Texas Blind Snake
Leptotyphlops humilis Western Blind Snake