Coltsfan wrote:I love Gurley but for him to warrant a top 5 pick wouldn't need to catch at least 50 balls this coming year? I was surprised his catches were so low. But even if he had 1900 total yards and 12 TD's you are still only at 262 points before the ppr. I may be thinking completely wrong on this, but I think that David Johnson has a much easier path to 325 fantasy points than Gurley. I fully intend on taking Gurley some this year but my expectation was to get him late in the first. I don't follow college football so I know very little about how good of receiver he was in college. I guess he seems like a virtual lock (barring injury) for 280 points but doesn't have a very clear path to 325+. Just my opinion.
Wayne
Of course you could be right on the mark and Gurley turns into a disappointing high 1st round pick. I may be too high on him...I would have taken him 1st overall...but to get to the 280 points you mentioned he'd only have to stay on the same path as last year with no improvement, (as you mentioned ...barring injury). Which would mean he'd also maintain a relatively low snap count compared to other elite RB's. Most highly rated RB's, especially those taken with a high 1st round pick generally show marked improvement from year 1 to 2. Of course there are exceptions such as the Pillsbury dough boy...TRich...As I stated, I'd expect Gurley to become a much bigger part of the passing game this year. He was an effective receiver in college and was also effective in his limited chances in 2015. I don't know if Fisher limited his involvement because of perceived passpro deficiencies (supposedly he was above average coming out) or because of his injury history or some other reason. But just based on his performance in limited opportunities in 2015 plus the natural progression from year 1 to 2; I'd expect his involvement to increase in 2016.
Right now based on 16 games my early, early, early projections have him at 1500-13-46-400-1. And again barring injury I'd see some upside to those numbers. Those projections only represent a 2-2-5 ppg increase over his 2015 numbers where he was a rookie coming off major surgery with very limited camp time.. And because of the dearth at RB and the abundance of WR options I'd prefer a potential 320+ point RB to a potential 350+ point WR. (I'd like both
)
Could I be way off base,,,sure...it wouldn't be precedent setting.
Regarding David Johnson...I like him also... but at this point am still a bit concerned with how Arians will use him.
