Top 15 RBs From Fantasy Sports Magazine

[Leroy's Aces]

Addai, outproduced by guys like this:

Derrick Ward - not even a starter
Justin Fargas - worst team in football
Le'Ron McClain - umm, he's a fullback
Michael Vick - umm, he's a quarterback
Rudi Johnson - umm, he's Rudi Johnson
Tatum Bell - umm, he steals luggage

[ May 15, 2009, 07:40 AM: Message edited by: Leroy's Aces ]

[Raiders]

Originally posted by Leroy's Aces:
Addai, outproduced by guys like this:

Derrick Ward - not even a starter
Justin Fargas - worst team in football
Le'Ron McClain - umm, he's a fullback
Michael Vick - umm, he's a quarterback
Rudi Johnson - umm, he's Rudi Johnson
Tatum Bell - umm, he steals luggage I was like yep, Dave got it until he wrote this
'Justin Fargas - worst team in football', I do beleive the Lions are the worst.

John

[Tom Kessenich]

Originally posted by rkulaski:
quote:Originally posted by Just Russ:
Here is a comparison between Gore and Addai over the last 3 seasons...

Gore 45 games, 45 GS, 3833 yards, 4.5YPC, 23 TDs

Addai 43 games, 27 GS, 2697 yards, 4.2YPC, 30 TDs

The only thing I see better is YPC. Total yards is a result of him having no passing game and a total reliance on the run. Addai still has more TDs which wash Gore's advantage in yards. Wow, I hope others look at these stats and think Addai is as good a rb as Gore. I actually thought Addai was going to be a special rb coming out of college.

I wonder what Gore's stats would've been last year in a Colts' uniform and what Addai would've done last year as a 49er. [/QUOTE]I did some math and this is what I came up with:

8,444 yards, 9.9 YPC and 313 TDs

[pizzatyme]

Originally posted by Leroy's Aces:
For all of Addai's "greatness", I count 63 RB or QB (I even count Vick for crying out loud) seasons of as many or more Rushing yards as Addai has averaged over those 3 seasons. And one of those years his team won the friggin' Super Bowl.

Adrian Peterson 1341
Adrian Peterson 1760
Ahman Green 1059
Brandon Jacobs 1089
Brandon Jacobs 1009
Brian Westbrook 936
Brian Westbrook 1333
Brian Westbrook 1217
Chester Taylor 1216
Chris Johnson 1228
Clinton Portis 1487
Clinton Portis 1262
DeAngelo Williams 1515
Derrick Ward 1025
Deuce McAllister 1057
Earnest Graham 898
Edgerrin James 1222
Edgerrin James 1159
Frank Gore 1036
Frank Gore 1102
Frank Gore 1695
Fred Taylor 1202
Fred Taylor 1146
Jamal Lewis 1002
Jamal Lewis 1304
Jamal Lewis 1132
Julius Jones 1084
Justin Fargas 1009
Kevin Smith 976
LaDainian Tomlinson 1110
LaDainian Tomlinson 1474
LaDainian Tomlinson 1815
Ladell Betts 1154
Larry Johnson 1789
LenDale White 1110
Le'Ron McClain 902
Marion Barber 975
Marshawn Lynch 1036
Marshawn Lynch 1115
Matt Forte 1238
Maurice Jones-Drew 941
Michael Turner 1699
Michael Vick 1039
Ronnie Brown 916
Ronnie Brown 1008
Rudi Johnson 1309
Ryan Grant 1203
Ryan Grant 956
Steve Slaton 1282
Steven Jackson 1042
Steven Jackson 1002
Steven Jackson 1528
Tatum Bell 1025
Thomas Jones 1312
Thomas Jones 1119
Thomas Jones 1210
Tiki Barber 1662
Travis Henry 1211
Warrick Dunn 1140
Willie Parker 1316
Willie Parker 1494
Willis McGahee 1207
Willis McGahee 990

How many of them had another running back drafted in the first round due to dissatisfaction over the incumbent starter? So, you are going to argue Addai's average versus single seasons from all others???

X

[Tom Kessenich]

Originally posted by Leroy's Aces:
quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
TJ, you make some very good points about Williams. My main concern with him, though, is I don't see him scoring 20 TDs again. That was a huge number and few RBs are able to sustain that level of production - especially if the team has another good goal-line option which the Panthers do in Stewart. And that's not taking into account the possibility Delhomme plays better. He was pretty bad for most of last season.

Williams finished first in the NFFC in scoring last season. Let's say he put up the exact same numbers this season only with 15 TDs instead of 20. That would drop him to a tie for sixth among RBs in average points per game. If he loses any more, that lowers him further.

And that's assuming there isn't a drop-off in his total yardage production.

So while I like DeAngelo a lot I think what we saw last season may have been a career year and not one he's going to duplicate again. To offer a counter-opinion, I will argue that DeAngelo did not emerge until week 5 last year. Also, Coach Fox has always shown fierce loyalty to his veterans. Many thought Stewart would take that job last year and he did not. How would he do it this year after D Will went crazy in the latter half of 2008? Answer: Barring a DWill injury, he won't.

2008 DWill weeks 1-4:

9.5 points
3 points
5.4 points
7.6 points

In weeks 5-16 he scored 253.6 points and averaged 23.05 NFFC fantasy points a game. That is almost 6 points higher than the 2nd ranked running back, Westbrook at 17.4. That is crazy.

Over a 16 game season, that is 368 fantasy points. Let's take away 8 TDs, or 48 points. That is still 320.8 points or 20 points a game, still 3 points higher than the next best RB from 2008.

DeAngelo Williams gets so much talk about being "overvalued" this year, I am beginning to think maybe he will be undervalued by the "sharks" on draft day....

I just find it funny that a less talented back (Turner) who is a worse pass-catcher (Turner) with a tougher schedule (Turner's) and also benefited from an outlier of a TD total (Turner) is a consensus top 5 guy, while a faster, more talented DeAngelo Williams is considered overvalued in the 7-9 range. [/QUOTE]Good points Dave but again I think the key issue here is can Williams score 20 touchdowns again? I don't believe he can. Not with Stewart around and not if Delhomme improves even moderately.

In the last seven years only three RBs scored 20 TDs or more in consecutive seasons:

LT
Shawn Alexander
Priest Holmes

Larry Johnson came close just missing 20 in back-to-back seasons. But even if you include him, that's a very small number. So historically, it stands to reason Williams' TDs go down. If they go down, his fantasy production goes down.

I think if you project Williams as a Top 5 fantasy RB this season you're doing so expecting him to remain at the 20-TD level. I'm just not sure that's realistic.

[pizzatyme]

Not to mention the fact that Carolina drafted a stud RB in the first round just last year. How much confidence can they really have in DWilli's long term success?

[Leroy's Aces]

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
quote:Originally posted by Leroy's Aces:
quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
TJ, you make some very good points about Williams. My main concern with him, though, is I don't see him scoring 20 TDs again. That was a huge number and few RBs are able to sustain that level of production - especially if the team has another good goal-line option which the Panthers do in Stewart. And that's not taking into account the possibility Delhomme plays better. He was pretty bad for most of last season.

Williams finished first in the NFFC in scoring last season. Let's say he put up the exact same numbers this season only with 15 TDs instead of 20. That would drop him to a tie for sixth among RBs in average points per game. If he loses any more, that lowers him further.

And that's assuming there isn't a drop-off in his total yardage production.

So while I like DeAngelo a lot I think what we saw last season may have been a career year and not one he's going to duplicate again. To offer a counter-opinion, I will argue that DeAngelo did not emerge until week 5 last year. Also, Coach Fox has always shown fierce loyalty to his veterans. Many thought Stewart would take that job last year and he did not. How would he do it this year after D Will went crazy in the latter half of 2008? Answer: Barring a DWill injury, he won't.

2008 DWill weeks 1-4:

9.5 points
3 points
5.4 points
7.6 points

In weeks 5-16 he scored 253.6 points and averaged 23.05 NFFC fantasy points a game. That is almost 6 points higher than the 2nd ranked running back, Westbrook at 17.4. That is crazy.

Over a 16 game season, that is 368 fantasy points. Let's take away 8 TDs, or 48 points. That is still 320.8 points or 20 points a game, still 3 points higher than the next best RB from 2008.

DeAngelo Williams gets so much talk about being "overvalued" this year, I am beginning to think maybe he will be undervalued by the "sharks" on draft day....

I just find it funny that a less talented back (Turner) who is a worse pass-catcher (Turner) with a tougher schedule (Turner's) and also benefited from an outlier of a TD total (Turner) is a consensus top 5 guy, while a faster, more talented DeAngelo Williams is considered overvalued in the 7-9 range. [/QUOTE]Good points Dave but again I think the key issue here is can Williams score 20 touchdowns again? I don't believe he can. Not with Stewart around and not if Delhomme improves even moderately.

In the last seven years only three RBs scored 20 TDs or more in consecutive seasons:

LT
Shawn Alexander
Priest Holmes

Larry Johnson came close just missing 20 in back-to-back seasons. But even if you include him, that's a very small number. So historically, it stands to reason Williams' TDs go down. If they go down, his fantasy production goes down.

I think if you project Williams as a Top 5 fantasy RB this season you're doing so expecting him to remain at the 20-TD level. I'm just not sure that's realistic. [/QUOTE]I just gave an example of him scoring 12 TDs and if you simply extrapolate his other "per game stats" from the last 11 weeks of 2008, he would outscore all other RBs from 2008 by 3 points per game and be the #1 RB overall. How unrealistic is it to expect similar production with regard to rushing average and rushing yards on a guy with only 273 carries last year. He should certainly get a similar number of carries on a run-based attack by a coach that favors a veteran player. Also, Williams average 5.5 yards per carry. How does Stewart take significant action away from uber-stud numbers like that?

Also, you rank Turner #4 overall. How can Turner expect to be a top 5 back since he scored 17 TDs last year on a preposterously high workload? (376 carries plus 18 in the playoff game for 394 on the season.) They don't throw to him at all (6 catches, wow that is terible BTW), and Gonzalez will steal his looks from inside the 10.

You can't make the "he scored too many TDs" argument for Williams, without making the same argument for Turner.

[ May 15, 2009, 10:10 AM: Message edited by: Leroy's Aces ]

[Leroy's Aces]

Originally posted by Just Russ:
Not to mention the fact that Carolina drafted a stud RB in the first round just last year. How much confidence can they really have in DWilli's long term success? Well, since DWill averaged 5.5 yards per carry, had 1515 yards and 20 touchdowns, I would imagine that they now have quite a bit of confidence in him.

That is just a wee bit different than your boy Addai, who had a whopping 3.5 average yards per carry and 5 TDs on 544 rushing yards, all while playing with one of the best quarterbacks ever to play football.

[Tom Kessenich]

I don't see anyone being a potential threat to steal a lot of TDs from Turner. When they get close to the end zone they're going to run it. Gonzalez's presence will help but I believe that will raise the productivity of the entire Falcons' offense and not work to the detriment of Turner.

We have Turner currently projected for one fewer TD and more than 200 yards rushing less so we don't predict a decline with him. But despite that he still comes in at fourth in our rankings. That comes with the caveat that if you are in an NFFC league or a full PPR league he should be drafted lower given his lack of involvement in the passing game.

[Leroy's Aces]

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
I don't see anyone being a potential threat to steal a lot of TDs from Turner. When they get close to the end zone they're going to run it. Gonzalez's presence will help but I believe that will raise the productivity of the entire Falcons' offense and not work to the detriment of Turner.

We have Turner currently projected for one fewer TD and more than 200 yards rushing less so we don't predict a decline with him. But despite that he still comes in at fourth in our rankings. That comes with the caveat that if you are in an NFFC league or a full PPR league he should be drafted lower given his lack of involvement in the passing game. Fair enough, Tom. It is a good debate and I could get further into my reasoning, but I think we can just agree to disagree.