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GEKKO BRINGS IT - Draft slots not equal
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CC's Desperados
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GEKKO BRINGS IT - Draft slots not equal
Last I checked, we never draft at the end of the season when we know who scores what points. And we would never get all the players in order.
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dgamblnman
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GEKKO BRINGS IT - Draft slots not equal
Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
The bottom line, the data show this is the most fair event out there. Every draft position has a chance to win this. Anyone that walks up to a slot machine has an equal chance of winning too. That makes it fair, but it doesn't neccessarily make it good.
[/QUOTE]KJ, I don't understand this, I don't stop the wheels in a slot machine, I can't call the 7 that I want ot hit the jackpot. But so far, the results are showing that all positions have a chance at this thing.....
quote:Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
The bottom line, the data show this is the most fair event out there. Every draft position has a chance to win this. Anyone that walks up to a slot machine has an equal chance of winning too. That makes it fair, but it doesn't neccessarily make it good.
[/QUOTE]KJ, I don't understand this, I don't stop the wheels in a slot machine, I can't call the 7 that I want ot hit the jackpot. But so far, the results are showing that all positions have a chance at this thing.....
GEKKO BRINGS IT - Draft slots not equal
I drafted 14th in NY League 6 and am 11th in overall points. So you can add that to the "my theory doesn't hold water" thread. 
GEKKO BRINGS IT - Draft slots not equal
Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
The bottom line, the data show this is the most fair event out there. Every draft position has a chance to win this. Anyone that walks up to a slot machine has an equal chance of winning too. That makes it fair, but it doesn't neccessarily make it good.
[/QUOTE]KJ, I don't understand this, I don't stop the wheels in a slot machine, I can't call the 7 that I want ot hit the jackpot. But so far, the results are showing that all positions have a chance at this thing..... [/QUOTE]I don't dispute that someone can win from any slot position. What I dispute is that this means all slot positions are equal. My point is this. Evaluating slot positions based on standings is flawed because there are far too many other meaningful factors that determine standings; injuries, unexpectedly good or bad performances, waiver wire pickups, start/ bench decisions, etc. Data can show many things which are statistical anomolies. I can tell you this - some slot positions will have more winners than other slots. No different from a casino slot. If a slot hits some people will flock to it thinking its a winner. Might be, might not, but it has very little to do with what was just observed.
The only "better" slot position for a player to draft from is the one that they want. The rationale for each player to have input into their slot is the same rationale that says an auction draft is better than a straight draft. Everyone has the ability to determine their own fate, it is not handed down to you. I recall from an early post that you don't believe in socialism - you should appreciate this point.
If I am given the #1 pick this year, I probably take Priest Holmes. If Priest stays healthy and plays as expected I have a better chance of winning than guys at the end of the draft, all else being equal. If he breaks his leg in week one, I have a worse chance.
My question is this?
Isn't it best that the guy that most wants to take on the risk of Priest performing is the guy that gets him ? In the auction he goes to the highest bidder. In a snake draft, he goes to the guy that was assigned #1, or perhaps #2, even if the guy that wants him the most is at #10.
Now UFS will argue that this contest is all about draft skill. His strategy involves slotting every player and taking the best available for his team at the time with little preference of who he really gets. In the stock market, this strategy would be the equivalent of a technical analyst, someone who seeks to take advantage of market anomolies.
My strategy is more akin to fundamental analysis, targeting certain players and determining where I will be able to draft them.
He and others may be against bidding for slot positions because it offers them no advantage, whereas it could help a fundamental analyst execute a certain strategy.
I think other people are against it because they believe have a greater chance of winning if luck is more important than skill.
[ October 26, 2004, 09:27 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
The bottom line, the data show this is the most fair event out there. Every draft position has a chance to win this. Anyone that walks up to a slot machine has an equal chance of winning too. That makes it fair, but it doesn't neccessarily make it good.
[/QUOTE]KJ, I don't understand this, I don't stop the wheels in a slot machine, I can't call the 7 that I want ot hit the jackpot. But so far, the results are showing that all positions have a chance at this thing..... [/QUOTE]I don't dispute that someone can win from any slot position. What I dispute is that this means all slot positions are equal. My point is this. Evaluating slot positions based on standings is flawed because there are far too many other meaningful factors that determine standings; injuries, unexpectedly good or bad performances, waiver wire pickups, start/ bench decisions, etc. Data can show many things which are statistical anomolies. I can tell you this - some slot positions will have more winners than other slots. No different from a casino slot. If a slot hits some people will flock to it thinking its a winner. Might be, might not, but it has very little to do with what was just observed.
The only "better" slot position for a player to draft from is the one that they want. The rationale for each player to have input into their slot is the same rationale that says an auction draft is better than a straight draft. Everyone has the ability to determine their own fate, it is not handed down to you. I recall from an early post that you don't believe in socialism - you should appreciate this point.
If I am given the #1 pick this year, I probably take Priest Holmes. If Priest stays healthy and plays as expected I have a better chance of winning than guys at the end of the draft, all else being equal. If he breaks his leg in week one, I have a worse chance.
My question is this?
Isn't it best that the guy that most wants to take on the risk of Priest performing is the guy that gets him ? In the auction he goes to the highest bidder. In a snake draft, he goes to the guy that was assigned #1, or perhaps #2, even if the guy that wants him the most is at #10.
Now UFS will argue that this contest is all about draft skill. His strategy involves slotting every player and taking the best available for his team at the time with little preference of who he really gets. In the stock market, this strategy would be the equivalent of a technical analyst, someone who seeks to take advantage of market anomolies.
My strategy is more akin to fundamental analysis, targeting certain players and determining where I will be able to draft them.
He and others may be against bidding for slot positions because it offers them no advantage, whereas it could help a fundamental analyst execute a certain strategy.
I think other people are against it because they believe have a greater chance of winning if luck is more important than skill.
[ October 26, 2004, 09:27 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]
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ultimatefs
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GEKKO BRINGS IT - Draft slots not equal
Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Now UFS will argue that this contest is all about draft skill. His strategy involves slotting every player and taking the best available for his team at the time with little preference of who he really gets. In the stock market, this strategy would be the equivalent of a technical analyst, someone who seeks to take advantage of market anomolies.
My strategy is more akin to fundamental analysis, targeting certain players and determining where I will be able to draft them.
He and others may be against bidding for slot positions because it offers them no advantage, whereas it could help a fundamental analyst execute a certain strategy.
[/QB]KJ, like this post. You could have had Staley in RD 2.
... Your strategy can be a winning one, but it limits your chances IMO. Everything has to go right.
On the post, it's not really "my strategy". What I'm posting is the observations of over 1000 14-team drafts.
What I'll continue to say is.... Is that the very best owners don't care where they pick. They know they have done their homework, are very good at picking the up and coming players each year, and consistently get more quality players than the average player.
They know that winning a league is usually done with picks after Round 4. Just about everyone does a decent job the first 4 rounds. Go look at rounds 5-12, and you'll see why some team are in the Top 50, and others at the bottom 50.
They have their target players, but they don't take Staley in Rd 1 at pick 12, cuz they know there's a 95% chance they'll get him at 2.3. And if they don't, it's not the end of their draft.
<<<<< Now UFS will argue that this contest is all about draft skill. >>>>>
It's not even close to being "all" about draft skill. FAAB managemnent is just as important IMO. Could even be 50/50. And FAAB is risky business where "patience" usually wins out, but then you have a Boldin last year. And this year, Eric Johnson. If an owner picked up E.Johnson, R.Droughns, and M.Moore, he's made a huge improvement to his team and covered just about any draft mistakes he could have made.
The contest winner will likely be a person that had a solid, deep draft, and also made the best FAAB picks and had the least amount of stud injuries, as it should be.
<<<<<< He and others may be against bidding for slot positions because it offers them no advantage, whereas it could help a fundamental analyst execute a certain strategy.>>>>>
I am totally for it. It gives me an advantage that I didn't have before. I'm a good player, but I have repeatedly seen players much better then myself draft from all over the board and consistently win. Having respect and learning from those better than you is key.
I picked #11 League A and after 3 weeks, yes I know only 3 weeks, I'm barely in first, and I have the most FAAB. I can do all sorts of blocking with my FAAB right now.
And if you look back on this board, I was told I had pick #14 a few days before, and then told (found out) the morning of the draft I had pick #11. I actually drafted from a POS terminal at my restaurant during the rush with only a single sheet, UFS points list to draft from.
When you believe you can win from any position, you can. And when you don't, you most likely won't. It's a confidence thing that comes from getting old I guess.
BTW, looks like we both cheesed on the Cincy WR we both liked.
Now UFS will argue that this contest is all about draft skill. His strategy involves slotting every player and taking the best available for his team at the time with little preference of who he really gets. In the stock market, this strategy would be the equivalent of a technical analyst, someone who seeks to take advantage of market anomolies.
My strategy is more akin to fundamental analysis, targeting certain players and determining where I will be able to draft them.
He and others may be against bidding for slot positions because it offers them no advantage, whereas it could help a fundamental analyst execute a certain strategy.
[/QB]KJ, like this post. You could have had Staley in RD 2.
... Your strategy can be a winning one, but it limits your chances IMO. Everything has to go right.On the post, it's not really "my strategy". What I'm posting is the observations of over 1000 14-team drafts.
What I'll continue to say is.... Is that the very best owners don't care where they pick. They know they have done their homework, are very good at picking the up and coming players each year, and consistently get more quality players than the average player.
They know that winning a league is usually done with picks after Round 4. Just about everyone does a decent job the first 4 rounds. Go look at rounds 5-12, and you'll see why some team are in the Top 50, and others at the bottom 50.
They have their target players, but they don't take Staley in Rd 1 at pick 12, cuz they know there's a 95% chance they'll get him at 2.3. And if they don't, it's not the end of their draft.
<<<<< Now UFS will argue that this contest is all about draft skill. >>>>>
It's not even close to being "all" about draft skill. FAAB managemnent is just as important IMO. Could even be 50/50. And FAAB is risky business where "patience" usually wins out, but then you have a Boldin last year. And this year, Eric Johnson. If an owner picked up E.Johnson, R.Droughns, and M.Moore, he's made a huge improvement to his team and covered just about any draft mistakes he could have made.
The contest winner will likely be a person that had a solid, deep draft, and also made the best FAAB picks and had the least amount of stud injuries, as it should be.
<<<<<< He and others may be against bidding for slot positions because it offers them no advantage, whereas it could help a fundamental analyst execute a certain strategy.>>>>>
I am totally for it. It gives me an advantage that I didn't have before. I'm a good player, but I have repeatedly seen players much better then myself draft from all over the board and consistently win. Having respect and learning from those better than you is key.
I picked #11 League A and after 3 weeks, yes I know only 3 weeks, I'm barely in first, and I have the most FAAB. I can do all sorts of blocking with my FAAB right now.
And if you look back on this board, I was told I had pick #14 a few days before, and then told (found out) the morning of the draft I had pick #11. I actually drafted from a POS terminal at my restaurant during the rush with only a single sheet, UFS points list to draft from.
When you believe you can win from any position, you can. And when you don't, you most likely won't. It's a confidence thing that comes from getting old I guess.
BTW, looks like we both cheesed on the Cincy WR we both liked.
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
GEKKO BRINGS IT - Draft slots not equal
Yes, Gekko - do tell... where ever do you find those things? I'm lost
Personal Foul on Gekko for non-approved Graemlins and mass confusion among the posters
[ October 27, 2004, 01:28 PM: Message edited by: Dyv ]
Personal Foul on Gekko for non-approved Graemlins and mass confusion among the posters
[ October 27, 2004, 01:28 PM: Message edited by: Dyv ]
The Wonderful thing about Dyv's is I'm the only one!
GEKKO BRINGS IT - Draft slots not equal
Originally posted by UFS:
KJ, like this post. You could have had Staley in RD 2.... Your strategy can be a winning one, but it limits your chances IMO. Everything has to go right.
On the post, it's not really "my strategy". What I'm posting is the observations of over 1000 14-team drafts.
What I'll continue to say is.... Is that the very best owners don't care where they pick. They know they have done their homework, are very good at picking the up and coming players each year, and consistently get more quality players than the average player.
They know that winning a league is usually done with picks after Round 4. Just about everyone does a decent job the first 4 rounds. Go look at rounds 5-12, and you'll see why some team are in the Top 50, and others at the bottom 50.
They have their target players, but they don't take Staley in Rd 1 at pick 12, cuz they know there's a 95% chance they'll get him at 2.3. And if they don't, it's not the end of their draft.
<<<<< Now UFS will argue that this contest is all about draft skill. >>>>>
It's not even close to being "all" about draft skill. FAAB managemnent is just as important IMO. Could even be 50/50. And FAAB is risky business where "patience" usually wins out, but then you have a Boldin last year. And this year, Eric Johnson. If an owner picked up E.Johnson, R.Droughns, and M.Moore, he's made a huge improvement to his team and covered just about any draft mistakes he could have made.
The contest winner will likely be a person that had a solid, deep draft, and also made the best FAAB picks and had the least amount of stud injuries, as it should be.
<<<<<< He and others may be against bidding for slot positions because it offers them no advantage, whereas it could help a fundamental analyst execute a certain strategy.>>>>>
I am totally for it. It gives me an advantage that I didn't have before. I'm a good player, but I have repeatedly seen players much better then myself draft from all over the board and consistently win. Having respect and learning from those better than you is key.
I picked #11 League A and after 3 weeks, yes I know only 3 weeks, I'm barely in first, and I have the most FAAB. I can do all sorts of blocking with my FAAB right now.
And if you look back on this board, I was told I had pick #14 a few days before, and then told (found out) the morning of the draft I had pick #11. I actually drafted from a POS terminal at my restaurant during the rush with only a single sheet, UFS points list to draft from.
When you believe you can win from any position, you can. And when you don't, you most likely won't. It's a confidence thing that comes from getting old I guess.
BTW, looks like we both cheesed on the Cincy WR we both liked. Yeah, Kelley is a head case, which apparently has won out over talent, at least for this year.
On Staley, I agree I could've had him in rd 2, but it would've made no difference because I expected to take Hines Ward in rd2. I expected both to be there so it didn't really matter who was 1 and who was 2. The ony issue was would he be available late rd 3, and I didn't think he would.
I don't disagree with many of your arguments in terms of things that are important and the need to be prepared for anything. Believe me, I don't just have 15 guys that I want. I have every possible player that I expect to be drafted slotted before the draft.
But I also have guys that I think are most underrated for the top 3-4 rds (which is really the extent of slot position advantage anyway) and I prefer to draft from the lowest available slot where I think I can get them. Now, is this a huge edge? Well, it depends. But say it gives me only a 5% expected advantage, or even 1% for that matter, that could be the difference between winning and not winning.
In the NL auction lge in Vegas this yr I lost by 1 run. 20 batters, 162 games, and I lose by 1 run !! Even the smallest edge can make a difference.
KJ, like this post. You could have had Staley in RD 2.
... Your strategy can be a winning one, but it limits your chances IMO. Everything has to go right.On the post, it's not really "my strategy". What I'm posting is the observations of over 1000 14-team drafts.
What I'll continue to say is.... Is that the very best owners don't care where they pick. They know they have done their homework, are very good at picking the up and coming players each year, and consistently get more quality players than the average player.
They know that winning a league is usually done with picks after Round 4. Just about everyone does a decent job the first 4 rounds. Go look at rounds 5-12, and you'll see why some team are in the Top 50, and others at the bottom 50.
They have their target players, but they don't take Staley in Rd 1 at pick 12, cuz they know there's a 95% chance they'll get him at 2.3. And if they don't, it's not the end of their draft.
<<<<< Now UFS will argue that this contest is all about draft skill. >>>>>
It's not even close to being "all" about draft skill. FAAB managemnent is just as important IMO. Could even be 50/50. And FAAB is risky business where "patience" usually wins out, but then you have a Boldin last year. And this year, Eric Johnson. If an owner picked up E.Johnson, R.Droughns, and M.Moore, he's made a huge improvement to his team and covered just about any draft mistakes he could have made.
The contest winner will likely be a person that had a solid, deep draft, and also made the best FAAB picks and had the least amount of stud injuries, as it should be.
<<<<<< He and others may be against bidding for slot positions because it offers them no advantage, whereas it could help a fundamental analyst execute a certain strategy.>>>>>
I am totally for it. It gives me an advantage that I didn't have before. I'm a good player, but I have repeatedly seen players much better then myself draft from all over the board and consistently win. Having respect and learning from those better than you is key.
I picked #11 League A and after 3 weeks, yes I know only 3 weeks, I'm barely in first, and I have the most FAAB. I can do all sorts of blocking with my FAAB right now.
And if you look back on this board, I was told I had pick #14 a few days before, and then told (found out) the morning of the draft I had pick #11. I actually drafted from a POS terminal at my restaurant during the rush with only a single sheet, UFS points list to draft from.
When you believe you can win from any position, you can. And when you don't, you most likely won't. It's a confidence thing that comes from getting old I guess.
BTW, looks like we both cheesed on the Cincy WR we both liked. Yeah, Kelley is a head case, which apparently has won out over talent, at least for this year.
On Staley, I agree I could've had him in rd 2, but it would've made no difference because I expected to take Hines Ward in rd2. I expected both to be there so it didn't really matter who was 1 and who was 2. The ony issue was would he be available late rd 3, and I didn't think he would.
I don't disagree with many of your arguments in terms of things that are important and the need to be prepared for anything. Believe me, I don't just have 15 guys that I want. I have every possible player that I expect to be drafted slotted before the draft.
But I also have guys that I think are most underrated for the top 3-4 rds (which is really the extent of slot position advantage anyway) and I prefer to draft from the lowest available slot where I think I can get them. Now, is this a huge edge? Well, it depends. But say it gives me only a 5% expected advantage, or even 1% for that matter, that could be the difference between winning and not winning.
In the NL auction lge in Vegas this yr I lost by 1 run. 20 batters, 162 games, and I lose by 1 run !! Even the smallest edge can make a difference.
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richieprimo
- Posts: 818
- Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 6:00 pm
GEKKO BRINGS IT - Draft slots not equal
[/QB][/quote]
On the post, it's not really "my strategy". What I'm posting is the observations of over 1000 14-team drafts.
[/QB][/quote]
How many times are you going to tell us about all of your 14 team drafts? We get your drift. You're some kind of expert on the subject. Please...STOP reminding us. :rolleyes:
On the post, it's not really "my strategy". What I'm posting is the observations of over 1000 14-team drafts.
[/QB][/quote]
How many times are you going to tell us about all of your 14 team drafts? We get your drift. You're some kind of expert on the subject. Please...STOP reminding us. :rolleyes:
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