Early Season NFFC Draft Results

[Greg Ambrosius]

The draft season is well underway in the NFFC as we've already had a few leagues competing in the NFFC Draft Champions National Championship. With $10,000 on the line, these owners are getting out there early well before the ADPs are established. In fact, they are establishing the early ADPs.

We don't want to give away too much information early on, but at the very least we can look at the first round to see where the top stars are going. In 3 of our first 4 drafts we've had different players going 1st overall. We've also had 4 QBs going in the first round of each draft. Take a look at a couple of these early rounds and let us know what you think:

1 1 Arian Foster RB
1 2 Aaron Rodgers QB
1 3 LeSean McCoy RB
1 4 Ray Rice RB
1 5 Calvin Johnson WR
1 6 Ryan Mathews RB
1 7 Tom Brady QB
1 8 Maurice Jones-Drew RB
1 9 Jimmy Graham TE
1 10 Chris Johnson RB
1 11 Wes Welker WR
1 12 Andre Johnson WR
1 13 Drew Brees QB
1 14 Matthew Stafford QB


1 1 Calvin Johnson WR
1 2 Arian Foster RB
1 3 Aaron Rodgers QB
1 4 Ray Rice RB
1 5 Chris Johnson RB
1 6 LeSean McCoy RB
1 7 Tom Brady QB
1 8 Matthew Stafford QB
1 9 Ryan Mathews RB
1 10 Maurice Jones-Drew RB
1 11 Wes Welker WR
1 12 Jimmy Graham TE
1 13 Larry Fitzgerald WR
1 14 Drew Brees QB


1 1 Arian Foster RB
1 2 Aaron Rodgers QB
1 3 Ray Rice RB
1 4 LeSean McCoy RB
1 5 Calvin Johnson WR
1 6 Tom Brady QB
1 7 Maurice Jones-Drew RB
1 8 Drew Brees QB
1 9 Ryan Mathews RB
1 10 Matthew Stafford QB
1 11 Marshawn Lynch RB
1 12 Chris Johnson RB
1 13 Wes Welker WR
1 14 Matt Forte RB


1 1 Aaron Rodgers QB
1 2 Arian Foster RB
1 3 Ray Rice RB
1 4 Calvin Johnson WR
1 5 LeSean McCoy RB
1 6 Tom Brady QB
1 7 Drew Brees QB
1 8 Larry Fitzgerald WR
1 9 Matthew Stafford QB
1 10 Andre Johnson WR
1 11 Ryan Mathews RB
1 12 Chris Johnson RB
1 13 Wes Welker WR
1 14 Maurice Jones-Drew RB


1 1 Arian Foster RB
1 2 Ray Rice RB
1 3 Aaron Rodgers QB
1 4 Calvin Johnson WR
1 5 Tom Brady QB
1 6 LeSean McCoy RB
1 7 Drew Brees QB
1 8 Ryan Mathews RB
1 9 Andre Johnson WR
1 10 Chris Johnson RB
1 11 Maurice Jones-Drew RB
1 12 Wes Welker WR
1 13 Matt Forte RB
1 14 A.J. Green WR


1 1 Calvin Johnson WR
1 2 Arian Foster RB
1 3 LeSean McCoy RB
1 4 Ray Rice RB Team
1 5 Aaron Rodgers QB
1 6 Tom Brady QB
1 7 Ryan Mathews RB
1 8 Maurice Jones-Drew RB
1 9 Trent Richardson RB
1 10 Chris Johnson RB
1 11 Drew Brees QB
1 12 Matthew Stafford QB
1 13 Cam Newton QB
1 14 Wes Welker WR


1 1 Arian Foster RB
1 2 Aaron Rodgers QB
1 3 LeSean McCoy RB
1 4 Ray Rice RB
1 5 Calvin Johnson WR
1 6 Ryan Mathews RB
1 7 Tom Brady QB
1 8 Drew Brees QB
1 9 Matthew Stafford QB
1 10 Chris Johnson RB
1 11 Wes Welker WR
1 12 Jimmy Graham TE
1 13 Maurice Jones-Drew RB
1 14 Rob Gronkowski TE


1 1 Arian Foster RB
1 2 Aaron Rodgers QB
1 3 Ray Rice RB
1 4 LeSean McCoy RB
1 5 Chris Johnson RB
1 6 Calvin Johnson WR
1 7 Tom Brady QB
1 8 Ryan Mathews RB
1 9 Drew Brees QB
1 10 Rob Gronkowski TE
1 11 Larry Fitzgerald WR
1 12 Wes Welker WR
1 13 Maurice Jones-Drew RB
1 14 Matthew Stafford QB

Thoughts?

[agrace1102]

Seems like a typical 1st round other than Jimmy Graham going in those 2 drafts. That pick seems to be a huge reach in round 1 but hey to each their own!

[Sandman62]

Why is taking a target-hogging TE who is head-and-shoulders above his peers considered a round-1 reach, but taking stud RBs and QBs isn't?

Looking at last year's NFFC points scored:

QBs:
Rank Total PPG Player
1 549 34.3 Brees
2 540 36.0 Rodgers
3 511 31.9 Brady
4 489 30.5 Stafford
5 468 29.2 Newton
6 408 25.5 Manning
7 393 24.6 Romo
8 388 24.3 Ryan
9 378 23.6 Rivers
10 350 21.9 Sanchez
11 332 20.8 Fitzpatrick
12 320 24.6 Vick
13 318 21.2 Roethlisberger
14 298 18.6 Flacco
* Most wouldn't dispute that the top 3 are round-1 worthy, and perhaps Stafford (though with healthier RBs this year, will DET throw as much?). Brady scored about 100 points more than Eli, who can probably be drafted a couple or few rounds later. Stafford scored about 100 points more than Romo/Ryan/Rivers, who can likely be drafted a couple rounds later also.

RBs:
Rank Total PPG Player
1 371 23.2 Rice
2 329 22.0 McCoy
3 306 23.5 Foster
4 306 19.1 Jones-Drew
5 271 17.0 Sproles
6 246 16.4 Lynch
7 239 17.0 Mathews
8 232 14.5 Turner
9 227 14.2 Johnson
10 225 15.0 Jackson
11 224 14.0 Bush
12 223 18.6 Forte
13 221 14.7 Bush
14 211 21.1 Jackson
15 207 17.3 Peterson
* Of these, there are probably only 6 round-1 picks: Rice, McCoy, MJD, Foster, Mathews and CJohnson. Most owners probably expect 300+ points from an early-round-1 RB, and maybe 275+ from a late-round-1 pick. That's about 75-100 points more than RBs that can be drafted a round or two later, but nearly double the production (300 vs. 150 pts) that most RBs outside the top 25 provide.

WRs:
Rank Total PPG Player
Rank Total PPG Last
1 366 22.9 CJohnson
2 336 21.0 Welker
3 289 18.1 Cruz
4 284 17.8 JNelson
5 278 17.4 White
6 269 16.8 Fitzgerald
7 264 16.5 SSmith
8 264 16.5 Harvin
* How many of these will actually be drafted in the 1st round this year? I'd guess just CJ, Fitz and maybe White. If Welker settles his contract, then maybe him (though with all the mouths to feed in NE, maybe not). So that's 3 or 4. The only other one I can think of that might still have round 1 potential is Andre Johnson. So that makes 4 realistically (5 if you include Welker).

TEs:
Rank Total PPG Player
1 331 20.7 Gronkowski
2 295 21.1 Graham
3 216 13.5 Hernandez
4 210 13.1 Gonzalez
5 203 12.7 Witten
6 191 14.7 Pettigrew
7 184 11.5 Gates
8 181 11.3 VDavis
9 180 11.2 Finley
10 176 11.0 Keller
11 173 10.8 Celek
12 162 13.5 Winslow
13 156 11.1 FDavis
14 151 9.4 Gresham
* The top 2 outscored 3-5 by around 80-125 points and the 13th and 14th by double (300 vs. 150; hmmm, sound familiar? RBs??? Except with RBs, it was all the way down at the 30th ranked RB that we first saw a meager 150 points; whereas with TEs, the 13th and 14th owners in a 14-team league were stuck starting one of these! ). So with TEs, there were only 2 that were far above the rest, whereas with RBs there were 6 and with QBs 3 or 4. So there appears to have been the same gaps as QB and RB, yet with even fewer top players. That means someone who takes one of these TEs, assuming they provide similar production this year, is getting a huge advantage on 12 other owners in a 14-team league. Compare that to QBs and RBs, where the advantage is on just 10 and 8 owners, respectively.

That said, I do agree that there is still a stigma with TEs and the old assumption is that we can wait on them until mid-rounds - just like most owners did with Gronk and Graham last year. But how often do the top 2 TEs come from mid-rounds? I'm thinking not very often at all. (In 2010, the top 3 were Witten, Davis and Gates, with Davis not being an early TE pick; in 2009, Clark, Davis and Gates, who were all among the first TEs drafted.)

Now, an argument certainly can be made that the Saints' Bountygate and/or Brees' contract perhaps should scare folks away from Graham, and that the Pats have a lot more mouths to feed in the passing game this year so maybe a dropoff can be expected for Gronk too. But for anyone who still projects these two to lead their peers by the same amount as QBs and RBs, then I see no reason that it isn't time to start reconsidering our old opinions of TE drafting. We all know the NFL's become extremely pass-heavy. If we expect that to continue, why NOT start drafting scarce commodity TEs in round 1, just like we do QBs and RBs? Afterall, isn't that what fantasy football drafts are all about - gaining an advantage on our competition?

[Tom Kessenich]

I like Graham's chances to maintain WR1-esque production. Unless one thinks Brees is going to fall apart completely without Payton around the Saints' offense should remain a highly productive passing unit. With Meachem gone, that could open up the door for even more targets for Graham this season (I like Moore for this reason as well). As the stats I posted in the STATS Pass thread indicate, Graham is a beast in the Red Zone so there's every reason to think the Saints will continue to feature him there. That gives him terrific TD potential. And then you get to this talent which is phenomenal and you consider that he's still learning the NFL game in a lot of ways so his potential to improve is strong. I really see no downside to Graham this season unless, again, you think the Saints are going to fall apart without Payton. I don't think that will be the case because I don't think Brees will allow it to happen.

I like Gronkowski a lot but I am a bit concerned about Lloyd's addition stealing away some of Gronk's thunder. But again, he's a supreme talent working with an elite QB and there's no reason to think the Patriots will stop wanting to throw to him given the matchup nightmares he presents. So while I like Graham more than Gronk I have no concerns taking Gronk at his current ADP.

[Sandman62]

So Tom, would you consider drafting either Gronk or Graham in round 1?

[Tom Kessenich]

So Tom, would you consider drafting either Gronk or Graham in round 1?

That's a tad bit early for me (I like them both closer to around 20) but I wouldn't criticize anyone who drafted them later in the first round. If it were me, though, and I was picking in the 10-14 range I'd probably hold off on taking them in the first round and hope I got one of them coming back in the second.

[Sandman62]

I agree. Though I also don't think, in this day and age, that I could really fault someone for "reaching" at the end of round 1 for either of these guys.

[Tom Kessenich]

I agree. Though I also don't think, in this day and age, that I could really fault someone for "reaching" at the end of round 1 for either of these guys.

I think it's an over-used and often outdated term. If you want a guy way ahead of his ADP take him. It's your team. We all love value plays and they're huge in fantasy sports but at the end of the day if you like a certain guy at a certain spot don't be paralyzed by his ADP. Grab him where you want him (that's what she said) and build the team the way you want.

[Sandman62]

Let me rephrase that: "I wouldn't be too surprised to see the ADP of both of these TEs creep into/near the end of round 1, nor could I really criticize those who would've made that happen via their drafts."

[Sandman62]

Ok, so maybe TEs won't be drafted in round 1 of many 12-team leagues this year. But what about 14-team leagues?

Let's say the majority of 14-team leagues have first round picks of (in any order):
RBs: Rice, McCoy, MJD, Foster, Mathews, CJohnson
QBs: Rodgers, Brees, Brady (and maybe Stafford)
WRs: Calvin, Fitz, Andre (and maybe White and Welker)

That covers the first 12-15 picks. Which of these players would you draft instead of TE Gronk or Graham?
- QB: Newton?
- RB: Sproles, Lynch, Turner, SJax, Forte, Peterson, DMac?
- WR: Cruz, JNelson, SSmith, Harvin, Wallace, Colston, Marshall, Nicks, VJax, Bowe, Green, Jennings, Bryant, JJones, DeSean, Maclin, Austin?