Analyzing The QBs For 2012

[Greg Ambrosius]

The NFFC is the only High Stakes Fantasy Football league where quarterbacks receive 6 points per passing TD. Why do we give QBs 6 points per passing touchdown rather than just 4 or 3 points to make them less valuable? The reason is simple: Because that's what they earn on the playing field and because THEY ARE SO VALUABLE.

Determining when to take a quarterback in the NFFC and where you can get the most value is one of the biggest decisions you have to make each year. It's not an easy decision and sometimes it works well when you take a QB early (Aaron Rodgers last year 13th overall) or when you take a QB late (Cam Newton, ADP of 210 last year). Sometimes you get burned with an early round QB (Michael Vick, ADP of 16 last year) and sometimes you get burned with one late (Sam Bradford, ADP of 98).

I don't think there is a perfect formula here, but since your QB is going to score 300 or so points for you to be successful (including a bye week fill-in), you'll need to make sure you have that position covered fully or you won't win in the NFFC. Plain and simple there folks. So get a good one at a good value in the draft and then pray for good health.

But one thing you can say about the QB position is that it's much harder to find a diamond in the rough here than at any other position. Yes, last year we did see Cam Newton and Tim Tebow emerge and surprise us in a big way. But it's tougher here to find a starting, productive every week QB after Draft Day than it is at the other skill positions. Starting RBs or WRs or TEs emerge regularly due to injuries and teams can win with a great FAAB pickup like Victor Cruz at those positions. But it doesn't happen as much at QB.

So you need a good starting QB and one who hopefully can stay in your lineup and productive for weeks on end.

Last year was a mixed bag of results at the QB position, but maybe we can learn a little something from past history. Let's look at last year's ADPs, last year's scoring for the position and their weekly averages, and then let's look at this year's ADP. Maybe we can find some correlations that can help us all on Draft Day. Okay, first the past:

2011 NFFC ADP for QBs:
1. Aaron Rodgers - 13
2. Michael Vick - 16
3. Tom Brady - 24
4. Philip Rivers - 27
5. Drew Brees - 29
6. Tony Romo - 46
7. Peyton Manning - 59
8. Matt Ryan - 60
9. Matt Schaub - 61
10. Ben Roethlisberger - 64
11. Matthew Stafford - 72
12. Eli Manning - 89
13. Josh Freeman - 92
14. Sam Bradford - 98
15. Joe Flacco - 109
16. Jay Cutler - 118
17. Kevin Kolb - 124
18. Mark Sanchez - 137
19. Matt Cassel - 140
20. Ryan Fitzpatrick - 154

NFFC QB Scoring Points In 2011, Average Points Per Game
1. 1 Aaron Rodgers - 539.8 points, 35.9 points per game
2 Drew Brees - 504.4 points, 31.5 ppg
3 Tom Brady - 476.7 points, 29.7 ppg
4 Cam Newton - 455.7 points, 28.4 ppg
5 Matthew Stafford - 436.7 points, 27.2 ppg
6 Eli Manning - 371.4 points, 23.2 ppg
7 Matt Ryan - 370.9 points, 23.1 ppg
8 Tony Romo - 368 points, 23.0 ppg
9 Philip Rivers - 347.6 points, 21.7 ppg
10 Mark Sanchez - 330.4 points, 20.6 ppg
11 Ryan Fitzpatrick - 307.1 points, 19.1 ppg
12 Ben Roethlisberger - 306.8 points, 20.4 ppg
13 Michael Vick - 287 points, 22.0 ppg
14 Joe Flacco - 284.9 points, 17.8 ppg
15 Andy Dalton - 282.8 points, 17.6 ppg
16 Josh Freeman - 274.9 points, 18.3 ppg
17 Alex Smith - 261 points, 16.3 ppg
18 Matt Hasselbeck - 250 points, 15.6 ppg
19 Tim Tebow - 249.8 points, 19.2 ppg
20 Colt McCoy - 229.5 points, 17.6 ppg

2012 NFFC QBs ADPs
1. Aaron Rodgers, 2
2. Tom Brady, 6
3. Drew Brees, 9
4. Matthew Stafford, 11
5. Cam Newton, 17
6. Michael Vick, 34
7. Tony Romo, 44
8. Eli Manning, 52
9. Philip Rivers, 53
10. Peyton Manning, 54
11. Matt Ryan, 57
12. Ben Roethlisberger, 69
13. Robert Griffin III, 80
14. Jay Cutler, 81
15. Matt Schaub, 85
16. Josh Freeman, 98
17. Carson Palmer, 105
18. Andy Dalton, 107
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick, 113
20. Joe Flacco, 115

First, let's analyze last year: Rodgers and Vick were first round picks and only one panned out for fantasy owners. Rodgers was a bargain at #13 overall as he led all QBs in scoring average at an incredible 35.9 ppg. Brees was a bargain at #29 and Rivers was a disappointment just before him. The real bargains were Stafford at 72, Eli at 89 and Cam Newton at 210. Nobody was a bigger bargain than Cam at 210, while Tim Tebow was the best FAAB pickup among all QBs. Of the Top 14 QBs taken last year, 11 finished in the Top 14 in QB points; Cam, Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick slipped into the Top 14.

Is there anyone in this year's ADP who could be the bustout performers that Stafford or Newton or Tebow was last year? Could Romo be this year's Drew Brees? Could Peyton be this year's Matthew Stafford? Could RGIII be this year's Cam Newton? Could Carson Palmer lead a new group into the Top 14?

I don't have the answers, but I'd be interested in your thoughts about the QB position. The NFFC puts more value on them, so let's lead off with the QBs as we analyze each position thoroughly. Enjoy and I look forward to your feedback.

[Greg Ambrosius]

It's certainly not hard to understand why four QBs are going in the first round in most early NFFC drafts or why that first tier of 5 QBs are head and shoulders above the rest in this year's draft. You can see that they are averaging 8-14 points per game and sometimes more than the other starting fantasy QBs below them. That is a big difference week in and week out.

But it's also because they are capable of the big, big games each week. Look at these crazy numbers for the top QBs in NFFC scoring and then wonder what it would be like to start out with 40+ points from your QB on a semi-regular basis:

Aaron Rodgers: 11 30+ point games last year, 4 40+ point games and one of 59 points vs. Denver

Drew Brees: 9 30+ point games last year, 4 40+ point games and 117.70 points in Weeks 14-16 last year

Tom Brady: 9 30+ point games last year, 1 40+ point game

Matthew Stafford: 8 30+ point games last year, 3 40+ point games

Cam Newton: 9 30+ point games last year

Pretty amazing season by those five QBs and a good reason why they are going so high this year, not only in the NFFC but in all fantasy leagues.

[David U Kennedy]

I dont like to be a stat chaser but its hard to ignore the top QBs. What the elite QBs are doing today is a trend that is here to stay. The way the rules are set up and the coaching philosophies is a direct effect of the huge passing numbers being compiled. Not to mention the highly athletic tight ends and wide receivers of todays game. Having one of those top dudes will be in my strategy for the forseeable future.

[Tom Kessenich]

I dont like to be a stat chaser but its hard to ignore the top QBs. What the elite QBs are doing today is a trend that is here to stay. The way the rules are set up and the coaching philosophies is a direct effect of the huge passing numbers being compiled. Not to mention the highly athletic tight ends and wide receivers of todays game. Having one of those top dudes will be in my strategy for the forseeable future.

I've been a proponent of targeting the elite QBs for the past few years. I agree with you that the way the game is changing it makes these top-level QBs so valuable in fantasy. Rodgers had at least 25 points in every game last season. Every single one. He also topped 30 points 11 times, including four games of more than 40 and one at 59. That's crazy production. But as crazy as it was Brees threw for nearly 1,000 more yards.

It's not like either of those teams (or New England or Detroit for that matter) are going to radically alter their offensive approaches and become run-heavy teams this season. They're going to throw and throw and throw some more. Granted, a lot of teams are airing it out more but when you have elite players like Rodgers, Brady and Brees who have all proven they can be fantasy superstars and players like Stafford and Newton who have elite talent and have proven their fantasy ceilings are quite high as well I think it definitely makes pursuing them a good way to go.

Bottom line is fantasy is much like the NFL in that you win with talent. Give me players who are going to consistently score a lot of points and those are the guys I want on my team. These elite QBs have proven they can do just that. No surprise to see five of them perched in the Top 20. I don't expect that to change either. This is The Year of the Quarterback.

[DonnyG.]

I have to say that i agree with the two guys up above on top of me.

[stormola]

I am having trouble understanding the scoring system and am hoping someone can clarify it for me .

For the NFFC QB Scoring points in 2011, Average Points per game (listed in the above post by Greg ) it lists Aaron Rodgers as number 1 at 26.4 points per game ( 397 points total )

So here is my confusion -

2011 he threw for 4643 yards which if he is getting 1 point for every 20 yards would be 4643/20= 232 pts
he threw for 45 TD's which if he is getting 6 points per TD would be 45*6 =270 pts

I am at 500 points before rushing stats .......

Also are the point totals for all players listed anywhere ( I have not signed up yet , wasn't sure if they may be available only after you sign up like the ADP's )

Thanks in advance to anyone who can help the ignorant and slow

[chriseibl]

I am having trouble understanding the scoring system and am hoping someone can clarify it for me .

For the NFFC QB Scoring points in 2011, Average Points per game (listed in the above post by Greg ) it lists Aaron Rodgers as number 1 at 26.4 points per game ( 397 points total )

So here is my confusion -

2011 he threw for 4643 yards which if he is getting 1 point for every 20 yards would be 4643/20= 232 pts
he threw for 45 TD's which if he is getting 6 points per TD would be 45*6 =270 pts

I am at 500 points before rushing stats .......

Also are the point totals for all players listed anywhere ( I have not signed up yet , wasn't sure if they may be available only after you sign up like the ADP's )

Thanks in advance to anyone who can help the ignorant and slow

Not ignorant or slow, i think there's something off with the above PPG.

Guessing the point totals are point totals for weeks 1-13, but the ppg is definitely off.

[Sandman62]

I was just thinking the same thing. I'm not sure where Greg's numbers are from. But right from last year's NFFC Stats page:

1 Aaron  Rodgers 539.8 35.9
2 Drew  Brees 504.4 31.5
3 Tom  Brady 476.7 29.7
4 Cam  Newton 455.7 28.4
5 Matthew  Stafford 436.7 27.2
6 Eli  Manning 371.4 23.2
7 Matt  Ryan 370.9 23.1
8 Tony  Romo 368 23.0
9 Philip  Rivers 347.6 21.7
10 Mark  Sanchez 330.4 20.6
11 Ryan  Fitzpatrick 307.1 19.1
12 Ben  Roethlisberger 306.8 20.4
13 Michael  Vick 287 22.0
14 Joe  Flacco 284.9 17.8
15 Andy  Dalton 282.8 17.6
16 Josh  Freeman 274.9 18.3
17 Alex  Smith 261 16.3
18 Matt  Hasselbeck 250 15.6
19 Tim  Tebow 249.8 19.2
20 Colt  McCoy 229.5 17.6
21 Tarvaris  Jackson 220.9 14.7
22 Matt  Schaub 219.8 21.9
23 Rex  Grossman 217.8 16.7
24 Matt  Moore 213.7 16.4
25 Jay  Cutler 195.4 19.5

[Greg Ambrosius]

I am having trouble understanding the scoring system and am hoping someone can clarify it for me .

For the NFFC QB Scoring points in 2011, Average Points per game (listed in the above post by Greg ) it lists Aaron Rodgers as number 1 at 26.4 points per game ( 397 points total )

So here is my confusion -

2011 he threw for 4643 yards which if he is getting 1 point for every 20 yards would be 4643/20= 232 pts
he threw for 45 TD's which if he is getting 6 points per TD would be 45*6 =270 pts

I am at 500 points before rushing stats .......

Also are the point totals for all players listed anywhere ( I have not signed up yet , wasn't sure if they may be available only after you sign up like the ADP's )

Thanks in advance to anyone who can help the ignorant and slow

My bad on the incorrect numbers in my original analysis guys. I'm such a geek sometimes!! Thanks for correcting me as I've updated those first two posts with the right numbers. Rodgers was an absolute STUD last year at 35.9 points per game, outscoring the second-tier fantasy QBs by 12-14 points per game. Amazing.

Okay, here are the correct numbers for the Top 20 QBs from 2011:

NFFC QB Scoring Points In 2011, Average Points Per Game
1. 1 Aaron Rodgers - 539.8 points, 35.9 points per game
2 Drew Brees - 504.4 points, 31.5 ppg
3 Tom Brady - 476.7 points, 29.7 ppg
4 Cam Newton - 455.7 points, 28.4 ppg
5 Matthew Stafford - 436.7 points, 27.2 ppg
6 Eli Manning - 371.4 points, 23.2 ppg
7 Matt Ryan - 370.9 points, 23.1 ppg
8 Tony Romo - 368 points, 23.0 ppg
9 Philip Rivers - 347.6 points, 21.7 ppg
10 Mark Sanchez - 330.4 points, 20.6 ppg
11 Ryan Fitzpatrick - 307.1 points, 19.1 ppg
12 Ben Roethlisberger - 306.8 points, 20.4 ppg
13 Michael Vick - 287 points, 22.0 ppg
14 Joe Flacco - 284.9 points, 17.8 ppg
15 Andy Dalton - 282.8 points, 17.6 ppg
16 Josh Freeman - 274.9 points, 18.3 ppg
17 Alex Smith - 261 points, 16.3 ppg
18 Matt Hasselbeck - 250 points, 15.6 ppg
19 Tim Tebow - 249.8 points, 19.2 ppg
20 Colt McCoy - 229.5 points, 17.6 ppg

[Greg Ambrosius]

Just taking one last look at the QBs, it's obvious why there are three distinct tiers of when QBs are going in recent drafts. All you have to do is look at last year's per game scoring average from these QBs to see how valuable they are to NFFC owners:

Tier 1 (ADPs of 3-17):
1 Aaron Rodgers - 539.8 points, 35.9 points per game
2 Tom Brady - 476.7 points, 29.7 ppg
3 Drew Brees - 504.4 points, 31.5 ppg
4 Matthew Stafford - 436.7 points, 27.2 ppg
5 Cam Newton - 455.7 points, 28.4 ppg

Tier 2 (ADPs of 35-60):
6 Michael Vick - 287 points, 22.0 ppg
7 Eli Manning - 371.4 points, 23.2 ppg
8 Matt Ryan - 370.9 points, 23.1 ppg
9 Tony Romo - 368 points, 23.0 ppg
10 Philip Rivers - 347.6 points, 21.7 ppg
11. Peyton Manning - 0 points

Tier 3 (ADPs of 69-86):
12 Ben Roethlisberger - 306.8 points, 20.4 ppg
13. Robert Griffin III - 0 points
14 Matt Schaub - 165 points, 16.5 ppg
15 Jay Cutler - 150 points, 15.0 ppg

Tier 4 (ADPs of 100-135):
16 Josh Freeman - 274.9 points, 18.3 ppg
17 Carson Palmer - 163 points, 16.3 ppg
18 Andy Dalton - 282.8 points, 17.6 ppg
19 Ryan Fitzpatrick - 307.1 points, 19.1 ppg
20 Joe Flacco - 284.9 points, 17.8 ppg
21 Andrew Luck - 0 points
22 Alex Smith - 261 points, 16.3 ppg

The Tier 1 QBs were worth 10-14 more points per game than the Tier 2 QBs and 15-20 points per game than the Tier 3 starting QBs that several NFFC Classic teams had to use each week. The Tier 2 QBs still outscored the Tier 3 QBs by 6-7 points per game, so it really shows how waiting on a QB in our scoring format can be dangerous. That being said, Tim Tebow did come to the rescue on the free agent wire last year and Carson Palmer helped a bit, too, but few players could match the top QBs last year, which included Cam Newton, whose ADP was 210.

Good luck this year getting a top QB who can score big points for you every week. It helps on the way to an NFFC title.