-1 for QB Pick

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Tom Kessenich
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Re: -1 for QB Pick

Post by Tom Kessenich » Thu Oct 04, 2012 7:29 am

ChiTwn wrote:Put me down for. I like the scoring with the kickers and QBs as is. :D

Like Mr. FatPerez mentioned above I would love to see Kick returners get 6 points for TDs. No yards just the 6pts.

Hopefully, Tom and Greg that could be a question in the survey for end of season.
We can add that for sure. That's something some people have asked for in the past. To this point, the majority hasn't been in favor of it. But we'll ask again and see what everyone thinks. :)
Tom Kessenich
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Coach JP
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Re: -1 for QB Pick

Post by Coach JP » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:07 pm

I've never seen such an overreaction four weeks into the season like I am with kickers in this thread.

I drafted Tucker on my best NFFC team knowing darn well he'd get his chances this year, reading how he had a leg that could hit from 60 and knowing the Ravens would be in a faster paced offense. I also took into account Joe Flacco's tendency to slip, and thought it'd result in a lot of FG's for Baltimore. I also drafted Prater thinking he'd have his chances, and thus far he hasn't been as strong.

That said, it could still change since it's only week 5, and Tucker could wind up finishing outside the top 12 when all is said and done and Prater could finish high. Just like any other position.

However, kicker is no different than any other position, ESPECIALLY when you take in a small sample size of 25% worth of season data.

QB Leaders
Ryan, Brees, Roeth (low draft), Griffin (low draft), Fitzpatrick (low draft), Brady, Dalton (low draft), Flacco (low draft) are the eight highest scoring QB's per game right now.

62.5% of these QB's were low drafted, but who here thinks these guys will still be here by week 16?

Wide Receiver has Amendola, Brian Hartline, Torrey Smith and Andre Roberts near the top. Again, odds these guys last this high through sixteen weeks?

Last year when all was said and done, the average kicker nested around 8.5-9.5 points which is definitely not going to swing a game. However, owners should be awarded the extra 2-3 points per game for selecting the right player, just like someone should be rewarded for selecting Griffin or Amendola.

The difference between the two (K and QB), is nailing a QB can get you an extra 10-15 points a game, while nailing an elite kicker will, at best over 16 weeks, get you an extra 1-3 points per game on average. If you're losing games because of kickers consistently, you might need to re-address the rest of your lineup.

Even when you take into K vs RB or another position, the argument still doesn't hold up. It's not smart to start comparing one position vs another in fantasy.

At the end of the day, a teams kicker will LIKELY score the same average points as another kicker and usually ends up in a wash. You can't start comparing a kicker vs another position, because you can't compare the average scoring of a kicker to the average scoring of a RB.
Last edited by Coach JP on Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Tom Kessenich
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Re: -1 for QB Pick

Post by Tom Kessenich » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:18 pm

Good post, JP. Every position is going to have surprises - either late-round picks or WW darlings who end up producing at a higher level than anticipated in the preseason. You listed good examples at each position. I also agree that instead of blaming luck or randomness, those who drafted or acquired top kickers should be commended for their moves.
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ChiTwn
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Re: -1 for QB Pick

Post by ChiTwn » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:24 pm

Coach JP wrote:
Wide Receiver has Amendola, Brian Hartline, Torrey Smith and Andre Roberts near the top. Again, odds these guys last this high through sixteen weeks?

Last year when all was said and done, the average kicker nested around 8.5-9.5 points which is definitely not going to swing a game. However, owners should be awarded the extra 2-3 points per game for selecting the right player, just like someone should be rewarded for selecting Griffin or amendola .

Now now no need to jinx Amendola. :)

particra
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Re: -1 for QB Pick

Post by particra » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:56 pm

Quite a discussion on kickers. Looking at a 4 week sample size makes little sense to me. Right now there are 9 kickers on pace for 180 points. There are 5 kickers who are on pace for 195 or higher.

Last year there was 1 kicker that reached that mark. Between 2008 and 2010, there was no kicker in the NFL that had more than 168 points. My guess is the current pace won't hold, things will normalize to the center, and the difference between most kickers will be irrelevant on a total points basis. If you start having a bunch of kickers going insane on points, then maybe it makes sense to revisit.

Or does it? If all kicker points are up, then what's the difference? Last year the 13th best kicker still had 140 points. So if 140 points is replacement level, is there a real benefit in taking Janikowski 4 rounds early to get 165? Maybe. A marginal value of 25 points might be more important than a 4th RB or 2nd QB (not to me).

Regardless, if replacement level becomes 165 instead of 140, there isn't really any marginal impact on scoring. Kicker points make up a larger percentage of your score, but then they also make up a larger percentage of EVERYONE'S score.

On the other hand, if only certain kickers points are up (because they are the best kickers) shouldn't we be rewarding people who take those kickers? Just because not everyone knew who Zuerlein was doesn't mean that no one knew who he was. For those people, it's not random at all (I am not one of those people).

JETS SB
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Re: -1 for QB Pick

Post by JETS SB » Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:44 pm

Personally, I am not for combining kickers and defenses. I like it the way it is. I was one who went early in drafts on defenes and kickers this year, most times picking the 1st or 2nd one chosen in each category. In my mind, having the Houston D (especially this week against my boys) and/or David Akers, pretty much keeps me off of the waiver wire all year, with regards to these positions, other than bye weeks. I put them in my lineup, good or bad, I am not replacing them, no matter the opponent. Everyone has their strategies. Picking the young kicker or the underrated defense is fine and I applaud those who do so, but I am of the other strategy, where I want the defense I know will be good and the kicker I can be confident will be top 10. In reality, David Akers or the Houston D took the draft spot of my WR6 or my RB4, even though they were drafted 3 rounds ahead of most other kickers/defenses. My thought is, take the good kicker, and get a decent 6th WR or 4th RB on the waiver wire, once the games are played.

As far as the QBs, my favorite fantasy league I am in (next to the NFBC leagues, of course) is a league where we start 2 QB's. This weighs the QB's even more and makes the strategy even more interesting at drafts/auctions, of when to draft your 2nd QB.. At some point in the future, we should have a 2QB league, maybe a stand alone auction.... Just a thought... but in general, I like things the way they are.

Alan

Coach JP
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Re: -1 for QB Pick

Post by Coach JP » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:26 pm

ChiTwn wrote:
Coach JP wrote:
Wide Receiver has Amendola, Brian Hartline, Torrey Smith and Andre Roberts near the top. Again, odds these guys last this high through sixteen weeks?

Last year when all was said and done, the average kicker nested around 8.5-9.5 points which is definitely not going to swing a game. However, owners should be awarded the extra 2-3 points per game for selecting the right player, just like someone should be rewarded for selecting Griffin or amendola .

Now now no need to jinx Amendola. :)
:oops: Sorry.

KenGill
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Re: -1 for QB Pick

Post by KenGill » Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:35 am

Keep things as they are with regards to Kickers and Defenses. The right kicker can add a couple of points per week versus the wrong kicker and result in an extra win or two during the course of the season. Those of you who want to wait until the last round of a draft and get one of the remaining kickers --- that's fine, but don't go looking to change the rules on us. Special teams do matter.
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FatPerez
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Re: -1 for QB Pick

Post by FatPerez » Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:23 am

I hereby propose that any NFFC owners who wish to change the existing rules in order to downgrade and/or eliminate kicker scoring, shall be required to face Houston Texans Special Teams Coach, Joe Marciano in gladiator-style, hand-to-hand combat to the death......if you can take Joe, (good luck with that), you can have your rules change. Of course, I'm sure Gregorio & Tomás would have to check with their lawyers on that one, procedures and all.
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"To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women."- Conan the Cimmerian

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