And then we have fantasy football

[Don Draper]

Couldn't agree more...

Whereas fantasy baseball represents science and order, fantasy football is chaos and randomness. I play fantasy football, but I don’t like it. I don’t like reading fantasy football analysis, predictions or projections. I think it is a tremendous waste of time to spend energy analyzing fantasy football when, in the end, it’s going to come down to luck, things like your player getting hurt, your RB being hungover, your WR’s coach benching him for two plays for not blocking and causing the other WR on the team to catch a TD, your RB fumbling and getting stuck in the doghouse, your team’s usually reliable QB going out and for whatever reason putting up a 0 TD, 3 INT stinker against a pass defense in the bottom third of the league.

What, you want more? Some tidbits for you…

Chris Johnson
Week 2 vs SD = 4.8 points
Week 3 vs DET = 3.9 points
Week 5 vs MIN = 2.9 points
Week 7 vs BUF = 32.8 points

Julio Jones
Week 1 vs KC = 28.8 points
Week 2 vs DEN = 5.5 points
Week 4 vs CAR = 4.0 points

Wes Welker
Week 1 vs TEN = 4.4 points
Week 5 vs DEN = 29.4 points

Dez Bryant
Week 2 vs SEA = 4.7 points
Week 6 vs BALT = 29 points

Brian Hartline
Week 4 vs ARI = 43.3 points
Week 6 vs STL = 0 points

Brian Hartline
Week 4 vs ARI = 19 Targets
Week 6 vs STL = 0 Targets


And then we have the guys you start but end up getting hurt…
Jimmy Graham
Week 1 vs WAS = 20.5 points
Week 5 vs SD = 1.4 points (and injured)

Maurice Jones-Drew
Week 3 vs INDY 27.3 points
Week 7 vs OAK 0.6 points (and injured)

Ahmad Bradshaw
Week 2 vs TB 1.6 points (and injured)
Week 5 vs CLE 31.9 points

Danny Amendola
Week 2 vs WAS = 36.0 points
Week 5 vs ARI = 5.4 points (and injured)

Rashard Mendenhall
Week 5 vs PHL = 18.1 points (first game back)
Week 6 vs TEN = 2.7 points (and injured)

The NFL has a 16 game season. As such, from a statistical standpoint, there is not enough of a sample to make any real, sound and logical conclusions. Plain and simple, fantasy football is mostly random, orderless, luck.

[BillyWaz]

Couldn't agree more...

Whereas fantasy baseball represents science and order, fantasy football is chaos and randomness. I play fantasy football, but I don’t like it. I don’t like reading fantasy football analysis, predictions or projections. I think it is a tremendous waste of time to spend energy analyzing fantasy football when, in the end, it’s going to come down to luck, things like your player getting hurt, your RB being hungover, your WR’s coach benching him for two plays for not blocking and causing the other WR on the team to catch a TD, your RB fumbling and getting stuck in the doghouse, your team’s usually reliable QB going out and for whatever reason putting up a 0 TD, 3 INT stinker against a pass defense in the bottom third of the league.

What, you want more? Some tidbits for you…

Chris Johnson
Week 2 vs SD = 4.8 points
Week 3 vs DET = 3.9 points
Week 5 vs MIN = 2.9 points
Week 7 vs BUF = 32.8 points

Julio Jones
Week 1 vs KC = 28.8 points
Week 2 vs DEN = 5.5 points
Week 4 vs CAR = 4.0 points

Wes Welker
Week 1 vs TEN = 4.4 points
Week 5 vs DEN = 29.4 points

Dez Bryant
Week 2 vs SEA = 4.7 points
Week 6 vs BALT = 29 points

Brian Hartline
Week 4 vs ARI = 43.3 points
Week 6 vs STL = 0 points

Brian Hartline
Week 4 vs ARI = 19 Targets
Week 6 vs STL = 0 Targets


And then we have the guys you start but end up getting hurt…
Jimmy Graham
Week 1 vs WAS = 20.5 points
Week 5 vs SD = 1.4 points (and injured)

Maurice Jones-Drew
Week 3 vs INDY 27.3 points
Week 7 vs OAK 0.6 points (and injured)

Ahmad Bradshaw
Week 2 vs TB 1.6 points (and injured)
Week 5 vs CLE 31.9 points

Danny Amendola
Week 2 vs WAS = 36.0 points
Week 5 vs ARI = 5.4 points (and injured)

Rashard Mendenhall
Week 5 vs PHL = 18.1 points (first game back)
Week 6 vs TEN = 2.7 points (and injured)

The NFL has a 16 game season. As such, from a statistical standpoint, there is not enough of a sample to make any real, sound and logical conclusions. Plain and simple, fantasy football is mostly random, orderless, luck.

Is this an official public service message from the NFFC to get more entries next year???

[BLACKHAND]

no billy..... it's a " i'm going to vegas just to have fun speech " . think it's our job to make that happen.

[mattjb]

there is certainly less luck in baseball and basketball.

[DonnyG.]

In good seasons and bad, fantasy football has, is and always will be educated guessing at it's best. 60% skill 40% luck.

[KenGill]

Is there more luck in fantasy football than in fanasy baseball? No question about it. Is luck more of a factor than skill? No way. Let's look at the guys you listed and do some more analysis.............

Chris Johnson - Stats declined from 2009 to 2010, declined again in 2011 and he scored only 4 TD's. Playing for mediocre team who decided to go with basically an unproven QB.

Julio Jones - 54 catches last year and must share balls with Roddy White on a team that also runs a lot

Wes Welker - great player on best coached team in football. Hall of fame QB throws ball to him. Give me an entire team of Welkers and I'll win money more often than not.

Dez Bryant - good player, no arguments here on drafting this guy

Brian Hartline - not a bad player but in 3 full years scored 5 TD's. Rookie QB. What were you expecting from him?

Jimmy Graham - No guarantee picking a TE early in draft. Did you really expect a repeat of 2011? With all the weapons the Saints have?

Maurice Jones-Drew - guys who holdout in preseason rarely have a good year. Look it up.

Ahmad Bradshaw - no argument from me about picking this guy

Danny Amendola - new coach in STL well known for running the football, QB doesn't throw many TD passes, plus he was coming off an injury.

Rashard Mendenhall - coming off an injury and was definitely missing first month of season, why draft him except as a backup

So almost all of these guys you mentioned had red flags, some of them glaring. If you want to convince yourself that it's mostly luck, go right ahead. But I'm not buying it.

[JETS SB]

Some of the same names are always at the top of my NFFC leagues, every year. That's not all about luck. They must be doing something right.

[Shrink Attack]

So how's your Fantasy Football season going, Mark?

Although I must admit that when someone wins $100,000 playing Fantasy Football, he must know a little something of what he's talking about...

[Don Draper]

random, orderless luck?

Aaron Rodgers
Week 2 vs CHI = 15.35 points
Week 3 vs SEA = 12.85 points
Week 6 vs HOU = 54.60 points

Jamaal Charles
Week 2 vs BUF = 5.2 points
Week 3 vs NO = 40.8 points

Jordy Nelson
Week 3 vs SEA = 3.9 points
Week 5 vs INDY = 4.9 points
Week 6 vs HOU = 39.1 points

[thelunger]

i agree that there is an element of luck involved in fantasy football but in my 20 years of playing the people that gather the most information and have a good understanding of the game of football and how to use that information seem to be the most successful on a consistent basis.70% skill 30% luck