How Are You Dealing With KDS & 3RR In 2015?

[Greg Ambrosius]

One of the unique features of the National Fantasy Football Championship is Third Round Reversal (3RR) and KDS (Kentucky Derby System. We use both in the NFFC to balance the value of each draft pick and we also do this in our basketball contest, where the top picks are always so much more valuable than the later first round picks.

It's been proven before that in straight serpentine fantasy football drafts that the higher picks score more seasonal points than each pick after it, so we felt that to be completely fair in the NFFC Third Round Reversal was needed. And history has shown since we went to this setup that no single draft spot has dominated in the NFFC like No. 1 did back in 2005 and 2006 when LaDainian Tomlinson was the consensus top choice. By adding 3RR, we have balanced out the draft picks from 1 to 12 and every year we analyze the top finishers and the league champions and we have always finished with balanced results between picks 1 to 12 (or 1 to 14). Here's last year's data:

http://nffcforums.stats.com/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=13964
http://nffcforums.stats.com/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=13960

Anyway, here's how it works and we ask everyone to take advantage of this setup:

1. Set your draft preferences before any of your NFFC drafts (except the Cutline, where all 10-team drafts are straight serpentine). Just click on your team link and the first page you see will have your Draft Preferences listed 1 to 12 (or 1 to 14). Click on Edit Preferences and put your preferred draft spots in order. If you want to draft in the middle this year, rank your preferences 6,5,7,4,8,3,9,12,11,2,1,10. The computer will always give you the highest available spot on your list.

2. Remember that Third Round Reversal has the draft order this way in a 12-team league:
Round 1: 1-12
Round 2: 12-1
Round 3: 12-1
Round 4: 1-12
All Rounds are then serpentine after that: 12-1, 1-12 through Round 20.

With no consensus top pick this year, a lot of NFFC owners are listing their top preferences as 12 or the back of the draft. Several owners want the middle of the draft order. And others still want the highest possible draft spot. It's going to be a very interesting year for KDS/3RR.

Which spot are you looking for this year? How are you ranking your KDS preferences? Inquiring minds want to know. Post your thoughts here and look for some early data very soon. I've analayzed some early Online Championship drafts and the results are all across the board. I'll post those shortly and keep up with this analysis throughout the off-season on this thread. Should be fun to watch how our NFFC owners plan for KDS/3RR in 2015. Good luck everyone.

[Greg Ambrosius]

We have had four Online Championship drafts so far in early June. Let's take a look at the KDS preferences for all 12 owners in these drafts and see if the system worked. Remember, in a straight serpentine draft not everyone would get a preferred draft spot and on average your preferred draft spot would be 6.5. Let's see if KDS/3RR does better than that.

Rotowire Online Championship/KDS Preferences:
3, 2, 1, 10, 11, 12, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4
4, 3, 5, 7, 6, 8, 12, 9, 11, 10, 2, 1
10, 11, 12, 9, 8, 7, 3, 4, 5, 6, 1, 2
9, 8, 10, 11, 7, 12, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
10, 11, 12, 9, 8, 7, 3, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6
6, 5, 9, 4, 7, 8, 10, 12, 3, 2, 11, 1
12, 1, 11, 10, 9, 8, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
12, 11, 7, 6, 8, 5, 9, 10, 4, 3, 2, 1
7, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

This is as good as it gets. Here's the data from this Online Championship League:
** The average draft preference was 1.91 per owner, which means on average every owner got their 2nd preference.
** 7 owners got their No. 1 preference
** 3 owners got their No. 2 preference and 2 owners got their 5th preference

Why did this league work so well? Because every owner has a difference idea of which spot is most valuable. There were 8 different choices for top preference: 1,3,4,6,7,9,10,12. That's crazy.

Here's another one:

Rotowire Online Championship League Draft Preferences:
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
1, 2, 12, 11, 3, 10, 4, 9, 5, 8, 6, 7
9, 10, 8, 11, 12, 7, 6, 5, 4, 1, 2, 3
10, 11, 12, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
9, 10, 8, 7, 11, 12, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
11, 12, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 6, 7, 8, 10, 9, 5, 2, 4, 3, 1
4, 5, 3, 6, 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Here's the results from this league:
** Average Preferred Draft spot for each owner was 3.17, which means on average everyone got their 3rd preference.
** 6 owners got their No. 1 preference.
** 1 owner got his No. 2 preference; 2 owners got their 3rd preference, followed by 1 at No. 6, 1 at No. 8 and 1 at No. 10.
** 7 owners listed Pick #1 as their last preference. 5 owners listed #12 as their first preference. There were six different choices for the first preference: 1, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12.

Here's another one:

Rotowire Online Championship Draft Preferences:
10, 9, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 3, 4, 5, 1, 2
10, 11, 12, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
11, 10, 12, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
1, 12, 2, 3, 11, 10, 9, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
6, 7, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 1, 2, 3, 10, 4, 6, 7, 5, 8, 9
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 8, 9, 10, 11, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

Here's the data from this league:
** The average Draft Preference in this league was 3.75, which means on average everyone got at least their 4th preference.
** 4 owners got their No. 1 preference.
** 3 owners got their No. 2 preference, followed by 4, 6, 8 (two owners) and 9.
** 8 owners had No. 1 as their last preference, while six owners had No. 12 as their first preference. Five different choices were listed as their first preference: 1, 6,10, 11, 12.

Here's one more to look at:

Rotowire Online Championship Draft Preferences:
10, 11, 12, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
4, 3, 5, 6, 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 5, 6, 7, 8, 1, 4, 11, 10, 9, 3, 2
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 4, 5, 7, 6, 3, 2, 1

Here's the data:
** The average Draft Spot Preference was 4.33 in this league, the worst of the 4 Online Championship Leagues.
** 3 owners got their No. 1 preference.
** 1 owner got their No. 2 preference, followed by 1 at No. 3, 2 at No. 4, 1 at No. 5, 1 at No. 6, 1 at No. 7, 1 at No. 8 and 1 at No. 10.
** Why didn't this league work as well as the other ones? 10 different owners had No. 12 as their first preference (only 10 and 4 were exceptions) and 8 owners had No. 1 as their last preference. There was very little middle ground here. Interesting.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Our 5th Rotowire Online Championship draft had some interesting KDS results:

Rotowire Online Championship League KDS Preferences:
9, 10, 11, 12, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
6, 7, 8, 12, 11, 10, 9, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
7, 8, 6, 9, 5, 4, 10, 11, 12, 3, 2, 1
9, 10, 11, 12, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 9, 6, 7, 8, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
12, 10, 9, 8, 11, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 6, 7, 5, 4, 1, 2, 3
9, 8, 10, 11, 7, 12, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

** Average Draft Spot Preference received was 3.58.
** 5 owners got their No. 1 preference.
** 3 owners got their No. 2 preference. Other preferences received were 5th, 8th, 9th, 10th.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Here's another Online Championship listing of KDS preferences:

12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 5, 6, 1, 2, 3, 4
5, 6, 4, 8, 7, 9, 3, 10, 2, 1, 11, 12
7, 8, 9, 10, 6, 5, 3, 1, 2, 4, 11, 12
6, 8, 12, 7, 9, 5, 10, 11, 4, 3, 2, 1
5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4
8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
9, 10, 11, 12, 6, 7, 8, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
6, 5, 7, 12, 11, 10, 4, 3, 8, 9, 2, 1
11, 10, 12, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 10, 11, 9, 8, 7, 4, 5, 6, 3, 2, 1
9, 8, 7, 12, 11, 10, 3, 1, 2, 6, 5, 4
7, 8, 6, 10, 9, 3, 2, 1, 12, 11, 5, 4

** This was a very interesting league as the average Draft Spot Preference received was 3.9. So on average each owner got their 4th preference.
** Six owners got their No. 1 preference.
** Only one other owner got a top half preference (3rd). After that it was 6th (two owners), 7th, 9th and 10th.
** There were 7 different top preferences listed by owners: 5,6,7,8,9,11,12. No. 1 was the least desired by five owners.

[Greg Ambrosius]

With another Online Championship League scheduled for tonight, let's look at another list of KDS preferences from a recent 12-team, 3RR format:

10, 9, 11, 12, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 3, 1, 2, 9, 11, 12
9, 10, 12, 11, 8, 7, 6, 5, 1, 2, 3, 4
12, 8, 1, 11, 10, 9, 3, 2, 7, 6, 5, 4
12, 11, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
2, 1, 3, 11, 12, 10, 9, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
9, 8, 11, 12, 6, 7, 10, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

Here's the facts from this league:

** The average KDS preferred draft spot received by each owner was 3.42.
** 5 owners got their 1st preference
** 2 owners for their 2nd preference. Other owners got preference numbers: 3, 5, 6, 8 and 10.
** There were only 6 different numbers listed as the No. 1 preference: 2,4,5,9,10 and 12. Six owners had No. 1 as their last preference.

[RedRyder]

I just looked at the Top 14 players from the Classic contest and not one of the Top 14 was drafted Top 4. Matt Forte was drafted at #5 in my league and he finished Top 4. The #1 player, Antonio Brown wasn't even drafted in the 1st round, nor was the #2 player, Le'Veon Bell and the #3 player, DeMarco Murray was taken with the last pick in the 1st round.

Come to your own conclusions.

It was interesting to see some of the 5th round picks: Ben Tate, MJD, Ray Rice and my gem of a 5th, Toby Gerhart.

[Tom Kessenich]

The values really seemed to be in Rounds 2-3 last season with guys like:

Bell
Murray
Brown
Lynch
Nelson
Cobb
Foster

And then there was Beckham, the Waiver Wire pickup of the century. If you were able to get two guys from the list above and then Beckham off the Waiver Wire you could've drafted me in the first round last year and still had a great season.

[Greg Ambrosius]

In looking at the latest Online Championship League, you can again see the differing opinions on where the best spots to draft from are. At the end of the day, though, the differences are working well for owners who want their top draft spots. Here's a look at the latest facts and the KDS preferences for each owner:

Rotowire Fantasy Football Online Championship League: KDS Preferences
9, 10, 11, 12, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
7, 6, 5, 8, 9, 10, 4, 11, 1, 2, 3, 12
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
9, 8, 10, 11, 7, 12, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
10, 11, 9, 12, 1, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2
7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 6, 12, 5, 4, 1, 2, 3
12, 11, 10, 9, 2, 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 5, 4
3, 4, 5, 9, 8, 10, 1, 12, 6, 7, 2, 11
11, 10, 12, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
1, 12, 5, 11, 2, 7, 8, 9, 4, 10, 6, 3

** The average KDS preference received was 2.67, which means that on average owners got a Top 3 preference.
** Five owners got their top preference, while four owners got their second preference. Other preferences received were 3, 8 and 8. 9 out of 12 got a Top 2 preference and 10 out of 12 got a Top 3 preference
** Six different numbers were listed as an owner's first preference: 1,3,7,9,10,12.

[Greg Ambrosius]

We've never seen the KDS/3RR work as well as it is this year because everyone has a different opinion on where they want to draft. Check out this one:

Rotowire Fantasy Football Online Championship: KDS Preferences
4, 5, 6, 12, 11, 10, 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 9
12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
11, 12, 10, 7, 9, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
3, 2, 11, 12, 10, 9, 8, 7, 1, 4, 5, 6
10, 9, 11, 12, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
12, 11, 8, 9, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
9, 8, 1, 10, 11, 12, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
8, 6, 7, 5, 4, 11, 1, 12, 9, 10, 3, 2
12, 11, 10, 9, 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 5, 4, 8
6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 10, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

** The average KDS preference received was 2.4, which is among our best so far this season.
** EIGHT different owners got their top preference. Other preferences received were 2,4,6,9. Wow.
** Nine different numbers were listed as the top preference by owners: 1,3,4,6,8,9,10,11,12.

[KenGill]

The bottom line:

You can draft from anywhere and still win. IF YOU MAKE THE RIGHT PICKS.

For example, every year, about 1/2 of the first round RB's that are selected, turn out to be a bust.
Draw your own conclusions.