Trendsetters 2016

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Coltsfan
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by Coltsfan » Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:57 pm

BigBlueNation wrote:
Coltsfan wrote:I agree Bill. Especially since we must start 3 WR's. It's hard to take TE early in this format. Now if this wasn't best ball then maybe.


Wayne
I don't mind pointing out that Wayne's "overall" DC Championship team had TEifert (rd10) AND JReed (rd15).

I remember winning an NFFC Classic league one year when Brian Westbrooke dropped to the end of the first. The guy next to me said that he would never take Westbrooke because he always gets hurt. He didn't that year. I really like Reed and Eifert this past year even knowing the risk. And I would have been fine getting last.

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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by BigBlueNation » Tue Feb 16, 2016 12:12 pm

OK race fans, the second round is in the books. Hold on to your seats....Are these guys crazy, or TRENDSETTERS?

Here's round 2...

2.1 Dez Bryant WR, Dal
2.2 Jarvis Landry WR, Mia
2.3 Alshon Jeffrey WR,Chi
2.4 Rob Gronkowski TE, NE
2.5 Keenan Allen WR, SD
2.6 Jordy Nelson WR, GB
2.7 Mike Evans WR, TB
2.8 Martavis Bryant WR, Pit
2.9 Demaryius Thomas WR, Den
2.10 Amari Cooper WR, Oak
2.11 Jamaal Charles RB, KC
2.12 TY Hilton WR, Ind
2.13 Kelvin Benjamin WR, Car
2.14 Randall Cobb WR, GB


An obvious trend here?...12 WR's taken in the Round 2, 1 RB, 1 TE. The tone of this draft was set early, therefore I see absolutely no surprises here.

But wait, the Trend has continued into the third round...
Last edited by BigBlueNation on Tue Feb 16, 2016 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Bill Cleavenger
UK Wildcats...We don't rebuild, we "RELOAD"

Sandman62
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by Sandman62 » Tue Feb 16, 2016 3:11 pm

Last year, by ADP just 17 of the first 33 picks were WRs, which correlated well with this draft last year (16).
However, in this draft this year, 25 WRs went in the first 33 picks! :o

2015:
  • 6 WRs broke 300 pts, 25 over 200, and 38 over 170
  • 1 RB broke 300, 13 over 200, and 21 over 170
2014:
  • 4 WRs broke 300 pts, 26 over 200, and 39 over 170
  • 4 RBs broke 300, 13 over 200, and 19 over 170
Those year-to-year numbers are remarkably similar, with the main difference being a couple injured and a couple bust top RBs. So why the mad dash for WRs this year? Maybe because, despite there not really being much difference in the quantity of RBs who break certain scoring thresholds, predicting who they'll be has become much more difficult, with all the injuries and committees and the general passing propensity.

Here were the top 10 ADP RBs heading into 2015, with only 2-3 that ended up delivering on their draft price:
1. Le'Veon Bell
2. Adrian Peterson, finished 2
3. Eddie Lacy
4. Jamaal Charles
5. Marshawn Lynch
6. C.J. Anderson
7. Matt Forte, 7
8. Jeremy Hill
9. DeMarco Murray, 15
10. Justin Forsett
* 4 of the 8 busts above were due to injury

But of the top 10 WRs, only 2 were really far off on their draft status:
1. Antonio Brown, finished 1
2. Julio Jones, 2
3. Dez Bryant
4. Demaryius Thomas, 9
5. Odell Beckham Jr., 5
6. Calvin Johnson, 11
7. Randall Cobb
8. A.J. Green, 8
9. Brandin Cooks, 13
10. Jordan Matthews, 16

BigBlueNation
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by BigBlueNation » Tue Feb 16, 2016 11:52 pm

We finished Round 3 tonight and it's still a WR fest. Is this the way it's going to be for drafts this year? HELL YES, especially for the early drafts. There is not a lot of confidence in the RB situations going into the 2016 season and this league is illustrating that.

The count through 3 rounds;
9 RB
31 WR
2 TE

3.1 Jeremy Maclin WR KC
3.2 Julian Edelman WR NE
3.3 Doug Martin RB TB
3.4 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
3.5 Doug Baldwin WR Sea
3.6 Jordan Matthews WR Phi
3.7 Thomas Rawls RB Sea
3.8 Golden Tate WR Det
3.9 Eric Decker WR NYJ
3.10 Marc Ingram RB NO
3.11 Michael Floyd WR Ari
3.12 Emmanual Sanders WR Den
3.13 Jordan Reed TE Was
3.14 Devante Parker WR Mia

As long as WR's keep flying off the boards, there's not a bad pick in this round. I venture to say, things are going to change in the 4th and 5th rounds, WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF WR's. :roll: This league is all about the "runs", get ready for the next run....

My picks from the 13, (Hope they remain healthy and continue to be the PPR monsters I know they can be :shock: )

RB..DFreeman
WR..JLandry
WR..JEdelman
Bill Cleavenger
UK Wildcats...We don't rebuild, we "RELOAD"

BigBlueNation
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by BigBlueNation » Thu Feb 18, 2016 8:10 am

Completed round 4 yesterday and should finish round 5 this evening. We're doing six rounds in Phase I of the draft, we will pause for a couple weeks, then begin again. Round 4 shows a little more diversity with the first QB and Rookie selections added to the mix. We won't know the name of the Rookie until after the NFL draft, but Wayne insinuated Ezekiel Elliott.

4.1 TJ Yeldon RB Jax
4.2 Cam Newton QB Car
4.3 John Brown WR Ari
4.4 Josh Gordon WR Cle
4.5 CJ Anderson RB Den
4.6 Lamar Miller RB Mia
4.7 Tyler Eifert TE Cin
4.8 Michael Crabtree WR Oak
4.9 Jeremy Langford RB Chi
4.10 Rookie 1
4.11 Matt Forte RB Chi
4.12 Allen Hurns WR Jax
4.13 Greg Olsen TE Car
4.14 DeMarco Murray RB Phi

I believe a lot were laying and waiting to pick Gordon. I really thought he would have gone at 4.3, which would have put him as that teams WR4 and well worth the risk, but I was sure he wasn't going to make it to me. I was hoping for Crabtree, I settled for Olsen. The RB group is really iffy from here on out, we're just throwing darts.

The QB run is on in Round 5...
Bill Cleavenger
UK Wildcats...We don't rebuild, we "RELOAD"

BigBlueNation
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by BigBlueNation » Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:58 pm

Rounds five and six, and Phase I, are in the books.

5.1 Buck Allen RB Bal
5.2 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
5.3 Delanie Walker TE Ten
5.4 Tom Brady QB NE
5.5 Andrew Luck QB Ind
5.6 Ben Roethlisberger QB Pit
5.7 Russell Wilson QB Sea
5.8 Donte Moncrief WR Ind
5.9 Blake Bortles QB Jax
5.10 Drew Brees QB NO
5.11 Carson Palmer QB Ari
5.12 Derek Carr QB Oak
5.13 Latavius Murray RB Oak
5.14 Travis Kelce TE KC


6.1 Jameis Winston QB TB
6.2 Kevin White WR Chi
6.3 Eli Manning QB NYG
6.4 LeSean McCoy RB Buf
6.5 Eddie Lacy RB GB
6.6 Tyler Lockett WR Sea
6.7 Andy Dalton QB Cin
6.8 Karlos Williams RB Buf
6.9 Zach Ertz TE Phi
6.10 Stefon Diggs WR Min
6.11 Dorial Green-Beckham WR Ten
6.12 Phillip Rivers QB SD
6.13 Dion Lewis RB NE
6.14 Tony Romo QB Dal

History suggest the QB run occurs in rounds 5-6. Me picking at 5.2, I went ahead and jumped on ARodgers, who I think will return to old form with his healthy receiving corp returning in 2016. I was hoping for Lockett, DG-B, or Karlos to return to me at the end of round six, as it played out, this was my toughest pick for me so far. Whether DLewis can return to 17+ fpts/g will depend on the FA signings NE makes. He's only 25 and signed thru 2017, he has a chance.

I believe we start back up next Friday, so everybody has a week to readjust their sheets and watch the FA's. I'm sure a few will be examining their teams and posting comments here.
Bill Cleavenger
UK Wildcats...We don't rebuild, we "RELOAD"

BigBlueNation
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by BigBlueNation » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:20 pm

Here's a breakdown of position by round

Rd 1...QB - 0, RB - 3, WR - 11, TE - 0
Rd 2...QB - 0, RB - 1, WR - 12, TE - 1
Rd 3...QB - 0, RB - 3, WR - 10, TE - 1
Rd 4...QB - 1, RB - 6, WR - 4, TE - 2, Rookie - 1
Rd 5...QB - 9, RB - 2, WR - 1, TE - 2
Rd 6...QB - 5, RB - 4, WR - 4, TE - 1

Total..QB - 15, RB - 19, WR - 42, TE - 7, Rookie - 1
Bill Cleavenger
UK Wildcats...We don't rebuild, we "RELOAD"

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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by BigBlueNation » Fri Feb 19, 2016 6:40 pm

My team thru Phase I. Any numbers I refer to are through 15 games.

1.13..Devante Freeman RB Atl..(RB5otb)..I didn't have him targeted at this pick, but if he duplicates 2015, I'll be great with him as a RB1. He had 22.2 touches/game (3rd in the league for RB's), 980 rushing yards at 4.1 yd/ru, 45 RZRu, 11 GLRu, 71 rec on 92 tgts, 13 RZ tgts and 13 total TD's. These numbers were in 14 of the first 15 games.

2.02..Jarvis Landry WR Mia (WR11otb) and 3.02 Julian Edelman WR NE (WR23otb)..I went into this draft wanting these two at these spots, unless somebody else fell to me. Of course nobody falls in this draft. They both get 10+ tgts/gm and both catch almost 70% of the balls thrown to them. That's seven catches per game. Landry had 22 RZ tgts, 11 GL tgts and ONLY 4 TDS. If only he'd got in the EZ a little more last year.. :shock: .. In 9 games, Edelman had 17 RZ tgts and 7 TD's. He's not going to get the GL tgts (he had 2), I think we all know why. I have these two very similar in production on a per game basis, but Edelman needs to stay healthy.

4.13..Greg Olsen TE Car..(TE4otb)..I didn't like any RB's here and it was a little early for my QB. Hurns went right in front of me, Gordon and Crabtree went a little earlier in the round, so I grabbed my stud TE. If I hadn't gotten one of the top TE's I probably would have waited 4-5 rounds to get my first. These thoughts were with the assumption I was taking a QB at 5.2.

5.02..Aaron Rodgers QB GB..(QB2otb)..Historically in Trendsetters, the QB run is in rounds 5-6. With me picking at 5.2 and the only QB otb being Cam, who went at 4.2, I knew this was the time to get a top QB. It's just a matter of who I preferred. I think ARod is the best in the game, he simply lost all his weapons last year. Jordy out, Adams out, Cobb hobbled all year. If they are all 100% this year, he should return to form and put up top QB numbers. BTW, after I took ARod, there were twelve QB's taken before it got back to my pick at 6.13.

6.13..Dion Lewis RB NE..(RB21otb)..I didn't feel good with this pick, BUT if they use him the same next year, he'll do fine as a RB2. In seven games, only 12 touches/gm, but 4.8 yds/ru, 10.8 yds/rec, and a 17+ fpts/gm avg. I have no idea what NE will do this off season, but Lewis is only 25 and signed thru 2017. Blount is a FA, and SJax needs to retire. That leaves Bolden and White, Hmmmm. I could see NE bringing in Ivory, but do they need to spend big $$$ on a RB if Lewis is healthy. How about the Heisman winner as a cheap addition?

Can't wait till we restart... :)
Bill Cleavenger
UK Wildcats...We don't rebuild, we "RELOAD"

RiFF
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by RiFF » Sat Feb 20, 2016 9:04 pm

Through the first 6 rounds my roster from slot 5 is:

QB: Drew Brees - Round 5

RB: Todd Gurley - Round 1
RB: Mark Ingram - Round 3
RB: CJ Anderson - Round 4
RB: Eddie Lacy - Round 6

WR: Amari Cooper - Round 2

I set my KDS with #5 as my 1st choice with the intent of drafting Gurley. This early, I actually didn't give KDS much thought beyond wanting Gurley in round 1 and then having the highest picks possible in rounds 2 and 3 after more or less ensuring I'd get Gurley. My strategy in most DE's is generally focused on getting the BPA, from a value perspective, and being less concerned with roster construction during the first few rounds. As Bill has pointed out, in this draft WR's were being drafted at a furious pace...with exactly 50% of the first 84 picks being WR's....this allowed value to be created for players at other positions. It certainly wasn't my intention to come out of the first 6 rounds with 4 RB's, but as the draft unfolded RB was the position that had the most value, based on my VERY early projections. Of course, the challenge will now be to fill out my roster with upside WR's. The problem I see with that, is the value going forward, imo, at least short term still resides at the RB position. So, I may still consider drafting another RB or two prior to focusing more on the WR position. There is also the very real possibility my early projections may be way off base based on where some of the 42 WR's were drafted. I highly respect the opinions of the other drafters in this draft, so it may be back to the projections drawing board!!
In retrospect, if I thought there was any possibility of getting Fat Eddie Lacy in the 6th round with the 75th overall pick (or a couple of the other RB's still available) I would have probably taken a WR in round 3 instead of Ingram. But. of course if those 4 RB's I've drafted stay relatively healthy and perform close to expectations...good strategy...if they don't.... it's, WTF was I thinking!!

I'm an advocate of the zero RB based draft strategy....in fact in my ME league last year I started D Thomas, AJ Green, Hopkins, Maclin and A Robinson in the first 5 rounds (and managed to sit the wrong one every week)....but when 75+% of the drafters try to use that strategy I suspect it's effectiveness may start to diminish along with the value at WR. Not unlike what occurred at times with the RB position years ago.

As always, a fun, interesting draft prior to the "experts" telling everyone what to think. Although I don't believe many if any in this draft are heavily influenced by the pablum served up by many "experts". The real issue will be how free agency shakes out and how the draft impacts players value.

Looking forward to phase 2.

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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by Glenneration X » Sun Feb 21, 2016 7:30 am

Bill, great job chronicling the draft.

Trendsetters is one of my favorite draft experiences each season. Taking place immediately following the final whistle of the Super Bowl, it's always the very 1st fantasy football draft of the year, and gives me one last taste of football before shifting gears to baseball. It utilizes a unique format that breaks the draft into multiple phases scheduled weeks apart from February through May. It offers the option to draft a rookie slot rather than any specific player, and to put a name to that rookie slot after the NFL draft. And the draft participants include some of the toughest in this hobby, from Overall Contest Champions to NFFC Hall of Famers to flat out just great players one and all.

I've participated in this league every year since 2010 and I've been lucky enough to win the league twice in that time. The following is the start of my attempt at taking down one more.

1.4 - Deandre Hopkins WR - I set my KDS straight butter hoping to get an early pick and anchor WR. I preferred the three WR's that went before me, Antonio, Julio, & OBJ due to the fact that they've performed among the elite for multiple seasons, something I can't say about my pick. However, Nuk did put up an 111/1521/11 line this season for a team with subpar QB play, a shaky running game after Foster went down, and below average options on the other side at WR and at TE to take coverage off him. I believe he proved himself this year to be elite, QB proof, offense proof, and is a safe pick here. I did briefly consider Gurley or Leveon, but Gurley's lack of involvement in the passing game and Leveon's brutal injury made those thoughts pass quickly.

2.11 - Jamaal Charles RB - I felt lucky to have decided on Nuk over the RB option's as the draft moved through the 1st 2 rounds. WR's were going early & often. However, when the draft called it a night 2 picks before my pick here, DT and Cooper were both still on the board, and I went to bed hoping to grab one of them the next day to pair with Hopkins to strengthen my foundation at WR. Unfortunately and as always is the case in this draft, when I awoke both DT and Cooper were taken with the picks just prior to mine. At this point 18 WR's had been taken, but only 5 RB's, and after the DT/Cooper picks there was a definitive tier drop at receiver in my mind. And when everyone zigs, it may be time to zag. So I shifted gears to one of the remaining elite and rare 3-down options remaining at RB, and in Charles, one that I felt had dropped too far due to the WR rush. Charles doesn't come without risk considering his injury, age, and the emergence of Ware & West. Still, it's Jamaal Charles, and in an Andy Reid RB-centric offense. There hasn't been many players who've provided the consistent elite 1st round production season after season like Charles. This pick is a bet that it returns for at least one more year.

3.11 - Michael Floyd WR - The run on WR's recommenced after my 2nd round pick and through the 3rd until my choice here, another 10 in the 13 picks since. The strong options were growing scarce. There were still three though that I felt comfortable choosing as my WR2 here, Floyd, Devante Parker, & Josh Gordon. My preference was to get 2 of the 3 between this pick & my pick in the 4th. I chose Floyd over the other 2 because I felt he had the least chance of making it through the 6 picks before I chose again. Floyd bounced back this year from a rough 2014 & his preseason hand injury to put up solid numbers. He plays for a strong offense where there may be a changing of the guard ongoing at WR1. Though his numbers aren't elite, his skill set may still be, and he passes the eye test for me that if they look his way more this year, he'll put up the numbers that'll reward this pick.

4.4 - Josh Gordon WR - Well, not the safest pick, but as they say... No guts, no glory. Gordon comes with a ceiling of best WR in the game, but a floor of suspended for life. We'll see how the season plays out. Still, it's not often you get the opportunity to grab an elite WR this late, who comes with this talent, and who's already proven he can provide top tier production no matter the offense or QB. Worth the gamble in my mind. Just stay away from the bong Josh!

5.11 - Carson Palmer QB - Trendsetters is known for its literally brutal runs. This draft has been no different. When this draft reached pick 5.2, only Cam Newton was off the board from the QB position. By the time it got to me after only 9 more picks were taken, another 7 QB's were gone. I felt lucky Palmer was still there. He's getting older, and is no Brett Favre when it comes to avoiding injury. However when healthy, he produces. He also gives me a nice hookup with Floyd.

6.4 - Lesean McCoy RB - By this point, WR, QB, and then TE were picked clean of the top tiers. There was still plenty of value at RB though. Only 17 have been taken so far through 5 plus rounds, leaving plenty of RB2's still to choose from on the board. In McCoy though, I believe a RB1 was also still available. Again, another pick that comes with risk considering McCoy's bar altercation with off duty police. I did read however that the police were at odds with the DA due to the DA's reluctance to press charges. This tells me McCoy's guilt & blame is far from certain and there's a possibility that he walks away from this, and returns as the key cog in Rex's ground & pound philosophy. We'll see.

My team through 6 rounds:

QB - Carson Palmer
RB - Jamaal Charles
RB - Lesean McCoy
WR - Deandre Hopkins
WR - Michael Floyd
WR - Josh Gordon

There may be a "bit" too much risk on this team. However, I've never been one to be called risk averse. And if all works out, and I'm able to surround this corps with solid options in the rounds that follow, I believe this team to have the talent & potential production to compete.

In a week or so, we start the 2nd phase of this year's Trendsetters, and we'll see if we can get a couple safer players then. ;)

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