Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jun 09, 2008 5:24 am

Okay, we're going to start revving up the NFFC Message Boards with a Question of the Week each week and I'm looking for some good interaction between our members. I'll come up with the question each Monday and we'll have some time to digest all of the responses. Keep all blows above the belt, if at all possible.

Question Of The Week, Week 1:

With top running backs and wide receivers still being the focus of fantasy players in the early rounds, can NFFC owners really win league titles in 2008 by drafting Tom Brady in the Top 10 this year? Can a team be strong enough at RB and WR if it selects a QB in the first round in the NFFC or NBC Sports FFC? Provide reasons why you think teams can win NFFC titles with Brady as an early pick or why you don't think teams can win with Brady. Thanks.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jun 09, 2008 5:37 am

From Diesel, who is away from a computer now, but who still found time to e-mail me his response when he saw the question:

I feel you CAN win a league, drafting Brady in the first round. Things must go right in order for you to succeed. You have to come back with some solid picks in the next few rounds. If you don't take a running back in round 2 after taking Brady in round 1, you'll be fishing for sleeper RB's throughout the rest of the draft and may miss out on some good WR's, but if any of the RB's you take a shot on pan out, you're gold. I suggest you take a running back in round 2 if you're going to take Brady in round one.

Brady is the best at his position. A position that only goes about 6 deep this year, in my opinion. The QB's for fantasy football 2008 are very thin.
Having the best at any position is always good, but having the best when there are only a small handful of "money" players at the position is
extremely valuable.

The answer is yes, in my opinion. It is possible to win with Brady in the first round. Will I do it on the big day of the Main Event? I can't say for sure until the day comes, but it can be done.

bald is beautiful · Post by **bald is beautiful** » Mon Jun 09, 2008 5:52 am

Of course you can.

1) You do not have to hit a home run with your first round pick. 2) You definitely do not want to strike out with a bad pick. You cannot win your league in the first round, but you certainly can lose it.

So, one strategy is to make sure you get a solid player. Brady should be very good and consistent this year. If you take the Brady plunge, it comes down to your later picks and how well you draft the rest of the way.

Edit - I bombed my first round pick last year - Travis Henry - but still won my league. So even with a giant loser in round 1, someone can still win their league title. Brady's stats THIS year will far exceed Henry's last year.

[ June 09, 2008, 11:54 AM: Message edited by: bald is beautiful ]

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Mon Jun 09, 2008 5:55 am

I'll jump in on this one. To be frank the answer is YES. Anyone can win these events with a number of different strategies. This has proven true with our past winners. The key is always selecting the RIGHT players.

OK..enough of the political correctness. Now I'll give you the honest RC take on this years drafts. Brady was a monster last year, no doubt about it. He had good value with an ADP of pick 44.5 according to NFFC draft stats. That's pick 4:2 on average. He was on 2 of the top 3 finishers in the 2007 chase for 100K and 4 of the top 8.

Based on last years stat line Brady finished a whopping 120 points ahead of the next QB which translates into about 7 1/2 points per game.

Take that a step furthur and say you were the last person to take a QB in a 14 team league. Assuming no one decided to grab a QB2 before you took your first and you have the 14th best QB....you are now 260 points behind the Brady owner. You'll have to win almost every other position battle to make up that much ground.

That's why I won't be shocked to see Brady go in the top 5 of some drafts and as high as #1 overall.

Be careful when making such a move. One needs only look at the season which followed P.Mannings record breaking year to see how unlikely a repeat of last years numbers are.

Brady should have another good year. He has a soft schedule and most of the same cast from 2007.

I expect the Pats to keep D's guessing with more running early in the year to set up the play action. Brady will have good numbers again: 4350/33/12.

Good enough for a top 10 pick? Absolutely...but make sure you nail the rest of the draft because 1 player won't carry you to the crown.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:02 am

Can You? - Yes
Should You - Probably Not

Brady is unarguably the top QB in the game right now. BUT in September, we will not be drafting 2007 season stats, and like Peyton Manning after his best season, Brady will likely regress to throw far fewer TDs in 2008.

Will he still be the top scoring quarterback? Very Likely
Should he be the first quarterback drafted? Definitely
Should he be drafted in the 1st round? NO, IMHO absolutely not unless it's really at the end of the round with the last or next to last pick.

Sure Brady will outscore the RB1 or WR1 that you could take with your first round pick.
Is his value over the other top quarterbacks worth forfeiting that RB or WR? I don't think so

That said, if you go that route you could still win IF your subsequent picks outperformed their draft position.

[ June 09, 2008, 12:03 PM: Message edited by: Captain Hook ]

TURBOUGH · Post by **TURBOUGH** » Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:04 am

I'll keep mine short.

Yes, you can win by taking Brady in the top 10 but I wouldn's say top 5. You just can't get that top 5 RB in the second round unless you get lucky. Ronnie Brown paid off early last year but that was a tough pick to make from almost any slot. JMO.

Why would I take Brady in the top 10?

RBBC. The position is much deeper and you're not forced to take one late in the first round. Instead of 32 starting RB's, you have 40+ getting the touches. I don't really consider the WR an issue on this topic.

TURBOUGH · Post by **TURBOUGH** » Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:07 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:
Can You? - Yes
Should You - Probably Not

Brady is unarguably the top QB in the game right now. BUT in September, we will not be drafting 2007 season stats, and like Peyton Manning after his best season, Brady will likely regress to throw far fewer TDs in 2008.

Will he still be the top scoring quarterback? Very Likely
Should he be the first quarterback drafted? Definitely
Should he be drafted in the 1st round? NO, IMHO absolutely not unless it's really at the end of the round with the last or next to last pick.

Sure Brady will outscore the RB1 or WR1 that you could take with your first round pick.
Is his value over the other top quarterbacks worth forfeiting that RB or WR? I don't think so

That said, if you go that route you could still win IF your subsequent picks outperformed their draft position. I agree with most of your assessment but I would take him over a WR1. I just think he truly seperates himself from the other 31 QB's.

Nice post Captain

KOTRAX · Post by **KOTRAX** » Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:39 am

I AGREE WITH PERRY ASSESSMENT. I THINK BRADY IS THE BEST SCORER AS THE Q.B. POSITION.

HOWEVER AS WE ALL KNOW WHEN YOU TAKE A Q.B. EARLY YOUR DRAFT IS AN UPHILL BATTLE AT THAT POINT.

SURE YOU HAVE SECURITY AT THE Q.B. POSITION BUT HE HAS TO DUPLICATE THE NUMBERS HE PUT UP LAST YEAR TO MAKE THE PICK HAVE ANY MERRIT.

EVEN HE HAS AN ABOVE AVERAGE SEASON AND THROWS FOR 35 TD'S IT STILL WOULD WARRANT A FIRST ROUND PICK.

REASON BEING YOU CAN PROBABLY PLAY A QBBC SITUATION AND BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE BRADY OWNER OF YOUR LEAGUE.

IN FANTASY THEIR IS NO SUCH THING RBBC OR PLAYING AN RB MATCHUP.

I THINK THE OVER AND UNDER IS 40. IF YOU FEEL BRADY WILL THROW FOR 40 THEN BY ALL MEANS TAKE HIM IN THE FIRST ROUND.

LESS THAN FORTY MAKE HIM A SECOND ROUND PICK.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:45 am

Of course you can win selecting Brady in the 1st round. We really have to look no further than last year as proof. The top scorer in the NFFC through the regular season last year took Brady in the 2nd round. His 1st round pick...Steven Jackson..who provided little support during that 13 week run. Of course this owner also had a very nice overall draft.
At least at this point there is very little reason to believe NE will alter their offensive approach from last year. As someone has already pointed out, NE returne an offense that is strikingly similar to last year's. In a year they went 18-1 and were one desperation pass and a miraculous catch by a #4 WR with his helmet away from a perfect 19-0 season; there is little reason to believe they will change.
Brady probably won't throw 50 TD's again this year, but 40+ is certainly not unrealistic. Again, they're not going to change to a powwer running game after going 18-1. Their strength is their QB and WR's and they will be the focus of the offense again this year. Additionally, they actually have an easier schedule this year than last. With a "normal" coach in the NFL this might diminish the passing stats somewhat, as a team would normally desire to run out the clock once comfortably ahead. But paranoid Bill proved last year that he has no such compulsion and is very willing to continue to "pile it on" well into the 4th quarter. If this holds true again this year Brady may surpass last year's TD totals.
I wouldn't pass on one of the top 4 or 5 RB's for Brady, but wouldn't hesitate selecting him after those RB's are gone.

KOTRAX · Post by **KOTRAX** » Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:56 am

GOOD POINT RICH!! AT THE END OF THE DAY IT COMES DOWN TO HOW NEW ENGLAND WANT TO WIN GAMES.

THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THEY WILL WIN GAMES.

THERE IS A FIRST TIME FOR EVERYTHING BUT AS WE ALL KNOW, NO QB HAS POSTED BACK TO BACK 40+ TD SEASONS.

WILL BRADY BE THE FIRST?

NOT SURE BUT THE WAY IT CAN BE FIGURED OUT IS HOW MANY T.D.'S DO YOU THINK MOSS, WELKER, GAFFNEY, AND WATSON WILL HAVE. I BELIEVE THAT NUMBERS NEEDS TO BE 40 FOR IT TO BE WORTH A FIRST ROUND PICK.

I KNOW OTHER PLAYERS WILL CATCH TD'S FROM BRADY AS WELL BUT NOT MANY.

SO MAY PROJECTIONS ARE:

MOSS 15
WELKER 11
GAFFNEY 7
WATSON 5

SO THAT'S 38 TDS. SO IT'S KIND OF A COIN FLIP IN MY OPINION.